Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Monday’s best props focus on three of the slate’s seven games:
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers: 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
- Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Cavaliers G Rodney Hood
The Pick: Over 13.5 points (-120)
The Cavs have the potential to be pretty shorthanded on Monday. They played only nine players on Saturday, and David Nwaba, who led all wing players with 38.5 minutes in that game, won't suit up against the Timberwolves. That could mean a few additional minutes for Hood, who has shown the ability to score at the NBA level: He’s averaging 17.0 points per 36 minutes this season.
It's a good matchup, too, with Minnesota ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency.
Hood is a streaky scorer, but we're projecting him for 33.5 minutes on Monday. That's enough to make the over look like a nice value, and I’d play it up to -150.
Celtics F Gordon Hayward
The Pick: Over 12.5 points (-130)
Hayward has had a bit of a disappointing start to his season, culminating with a move to the bench last week. That said, there are reasons for optimism.
For starters, Jaylen Brown won’t suit up, which should result in a few additional minutes of playing time. Hayward saw a usage bump of +4.4% in his first game without Brown this season, which resulted in 18 points in only 26.6 minutes. He's currently projected to play more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models, which gives him even more scoring potential on today’s slate.
He’s also in an excellent spot against the Pelicans, who have played at the third-fastest pace this season. The Celtics' implied team total of 113.0 points is tied for the fourth-highest mark on the slate and represents an increase of more than 6.5 points when compared to their season average (106.3).
I think this line is pretty exploitable with Brown out of the lineup. I would play the over up to -180 and would play it up to 13.5 points.
Warriors SF Kevin Durant
The Pick: Over six assists (-154)
The Warriors offense has been much maligned with Stephen Curry out of the lineup recently, but they've started to turn things around. They've scored at least 117 points in each of their past two games, thanks in no small part to the work done by Durant.
Durant is obviously one of the best scorers in the game, but he’s also seen a nice bump as a distributor with Curry and Draymond Green out of the lineup. Durant has racked up at least six assists in three of his past four games and has handed out 8.5 assists per 36 minutes with both players off the floor this season.
This line is already juiced pretty substantially, but this is one of just three props with a Bet Quality of 10 in our Player Prop tool. I’d play it up to -185.
