Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Thursday: Will Serge Ibaka Drop 9 Points?

The NBA player prop highlighted below is from the following playoff game on Thursday night:

• Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Raptors PF Serge Ibaka

THE PICK: Over 8.5 Points (-115)

As Bryan Mears points out in our Raptors-76ers Game 6 guide, Toronto coach Nick Nurse has made the tactical adjustment of going with more of the Ibaka-Marc Gasol combo, which has meant more playing time for Ibaka overall. Ibaka played just 16 minutes per game in the first three games of the series but is averaging 27 over the last two.

As long as Ibaka is playing anywhere close to his season average in minutes off the bench, we should feel relatively confident in betting the over on a line like this, as he put up 12.9 points in 21.9 minutes per game in the regular season.

Even counting his down Games 1-3, Ibaka has dropped at least 10 points in 21 of 33 (63.6%) bench stints this season, so the over should have value up to 9.5 (-175).

Our NBA Player Models have Ibaka projected for 10.6 points tonight, and our player props tool rates this prop a perfect 10 in bet quality (59% win rate this season).

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren't already.