Sixers vs. Raptors Game 6 Betting Preview: Will Philly Force a Game 7?
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid
Game 6 Betting Odds: Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
- Spread: Raptors -2
- Over/Under: 213.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Series Score: Raptors Lead 3-2
>> All odds as of Wednesday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.
The Sixers went up 2-1 earlier this series but have now looked terrible for two straight games.
Can they get it together to avoid elimination? Our analysts discuss.
Betting Trends to Know
The Sixers are home underdogs in Game 6 after losing 125-89 to the Raptors on Tuesday. Since 2005, home underdogs in the playoffs have gone 115-134-6 (46%) against the spread. In Games 6-7, home dogs have gone 10-26-1 (28%) ATS. — John Ewing
Recently, home underdogs in Game 6 have struggled mightily in the playoffs. Since 2014-15, they are 0-10 straight-up, losing by 19.5 points per game. In the BetLabs database (since 2005), home underdogs are 5-20 (20%) straight-up in Games 6 and 7 when they lost the previous game by double digits. Those 25 teams lost by 9.4 points per game and have dropped the last nine affairs. — Evan Abrams
The Sixers enter Game 6 having really struggled from the field in their last two games, shooting 42% or worse in both losses. Since 2005, teams that shoot 42% or worse in consecutive games entering a Game 6 or Game 7 are only 13-26 ATS (33.3%), failing to cover the spread by 4.1 points per game. — Abrams
The Sixers are down 3-2 heading home to try and extend the series, and one of the reasons for their hole is the play of their star, Joel Embiid. In the five games so far against the Raptors, Embiid is shooting 38.3% from the field with 19 turnovers. The issue for Philly? When Embiid is off the court in this series, the Sixers have been an absolute disaster.
- On Court: +9.6 Net Rating (157 min)
- Off Court: -38.6 Net Rating (83 min)
- On Court: +13 Net Rating (82 min)
- Off Court: -41.2 Net Rating (38 min)
- On Court: +5.5 Net Rating (74 min)
- Off Court: -37.3 Net Rating (46 min) – Abrams
Locky: How I’m Betting Game 6
More on Ewing’s numbers above: In Game 6s in particular, home dogs are 9-25-1 ATS; they’re 1-6 after two consecutive losses.
The jig, as they say, is up.
All of the dumb parts of me think Philly is going to win this game. But that’s why they’re dumb. It would be a very Philly thing to do, though — to come back from a nightmare game with some Embiid 360-degree dunks again.
Really, much like with the Game 5 betting guide, my word of warning was to listen to what all the beat reporters and people covering the team were saying in the hour leading up to game time, and if Embiid seemed like he was clearly going to struggle, bet his prop unders.
Well, congratulations on two straight games of that being an awesome strategy. And why would we stop there? Maybe his sickness/knee/everything else gets better, but I doubt it with the series moving to this every-other-day format and remaining there. There just isn’t a long enough gap for him to get right. See how he looks before the game and go from there. As much as it’s annoying to wait for word on him, the reports have been really transparent in terms of his effectiveness.
And without knowing how much or what kind of Embiid we’ll get, I’m not sure you can smartly bet the spread in this series (unless you just want to assume he is NEVER 100% and bet Toronto).
We can read whatever tea leaves we want, but until we get to practice and shootaround and know more about his condition, it’s just not possible to say what to expect. And even if he looks great tomorrow night, we have no idea what to expect in Game 7 if they make it that far. The Embiid mystery makes this a pass for me in terms of side and total. — Ken Barkley
Mears: How I’m Handicapping Tonight’s Game
This has been a weird series. It looked like the Raptors were in trouble, with everyone other than Kawhi Leonard playing incredibly poorly and Pascal Siakam going down with an injury. Thankfully for the Raptors, that hasn’t mattered in the last two games, with Embiid playing so poorly.
Nick Nurse made a really nice adjustment, one that probably won the series.
Another interesting note here, regarding how Nurse has matched Gasol with Embiid after that Game 3 disaster:
Games 1-3, Gasol was on the court for 57 of Embiid’s 90 minutes (63% of the time).
Games 4-5, Gasol has been on for 61 of Embiid’s 67 minutes (91%).
— Joseph Casciaro (@JosephCasciaro) May 8, 2019
Per NBA.com, Embiid is shooting just 34.3% when defended by Marc Gasol vs. 43.8% when defended by Serge Ibaka. The Raps have won Gasol’s minutes by nine points and lost their Ibaka minutes by seven points.
Gasol has defended him very well:
Even when Embiid gets shots to go down, they’re really difficult attempts:
And often, Embiid isn’t even attacking at the rim, which has been a big point of emphasis for me this season. When he’s healthy and aggressive, he’s a force. But without his health, along with the Raptors’ scheme and good defense from Gasol, he’s settling. Last game he took 10 total shots, and six of those were 3-pointers. We mentioned above how important Embiid is to this team; the team goes as he does. If we’re getting a passive Embiid who’s not healthy, this series is over.
I agree with Locky that we should collect information tomorrow. Outside of a sterling report, I’ll likely be on the Raptors. — Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.