Public Bettors Fading the Drama-Ridden Timberwolves in San Antonio

The NBA is an interesting league that oftentimes epitomizes the teenage angst of a high school clique more so than a collection of grown men playing basketball.

The most recent dose of drama has been up in Minnesota, where Jimmy Butler is throwing fits in practice, among other outbursts.

Butler wants out of Minnesota, but he's going to have to play there for the time being. It must be tough playing basketball for millions of dollars each year …

This turmoil is causing many bettors to look upon the Timberwolves with pessimism. Their win total under is one of the most popular win total bets, and that same mindset is leaking over to Minnesota's season opener in San Antonio.

So far, just 27% of spread bets are on Minnesota, which opened between +1 and +2.5 around the market. The line is now +2.5 at most books.

So is this an easy W for the Spurs?

Using Sports Insights' Bet Labs software, I analyzed how teams have performed against-the-spread (ATS) historically in lopsided season openers.

Let's just say the public has been very wrong.

• Teams with at least 65% of bets: 23-35-2 ATS
• Teams with at least 70% of bets: 10-20-1 ATS

Hmm. Not great. Well, perhaps focusing only on season openers can't be relied upon due to its small sample size.

How about the first three games of the season?

• Teams with at least 65% of bets: 82-119-4 ATS
• Teams with at least 70% of bets: 37-75-1 ATS

Uhhh …

Unfortunately, there is no filter in Bet Labs called "star player being a big baby," so we can't solely rely on the data here, but there is plenty of value on the Timberwolves.