NBA Sharp Report: Pros Betting Grizzlies-Rockets, 2 Other New Year’s Eve Games

Happy New Year's Eve! While much of the sports gambling world will be sweating college football bowl games all day, sharps have quietly gotten down on a few under-the-radar NBA matchups.

After examining the seven-game NBA slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified three NBA games that pros are betting on Monday night.

On behalf of The Action Network, be safe tonight and see you at the window!

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Full Sports Betting Glossary

Boston Celtics at San Antonio Spurs

7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (220 to 219.5) 

Recreational bettors see two teams averaging 111.7 and 111.2 points per game and a total of less than 220. Add it up, easy over!

However, Average Joes might be ignoring the fact that Boston ranks fourth overall in fewest points allowed (105.6 PPG).

This total opened at 220. Despite nearly 70% of bets taking the over, the line has fallen to 219.5. This is classic case of reverse line movement, with casual bettors hammering the over, but smart money banking on a lower-scoring game.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals we noticed two steam and reverse line moves on Under 220 and Under 218. Some late buyback pushed the line back to 219.5.

Since 2005, Unders getting less than 40% of bets in which the total stays the same or falls have hit at a 54.9% clip, winning +55.51 units.

An added bonus for sharps sweating the under: Marc Davis is one of the top Under refs in the NBA (+31.8 units since 2005).

Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets 

7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Grizzlies (+5.5 to +5) 

Of all the New Year's Eve games, this is the favorite spread play for the wiseguys.

Houston opened as a 5.5-point home favorite. Currently 57% of bets are laying the points with James Harden and Company, but 77% of dollars are taking road dog Memphis.

Meanwhile, the line has fallen from HOU -5.5 to -5. Some books are even down to -4.5.

This massive bets vs. dollar discrepancy and reverse line movement are clear indicators that pros are grabbing the points, not laying them.

We've tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on Memphis (+5, +6, two at +5.5), without a single conflicting play on the Rockets.

The Grizzlies also match two profitable Bet Labs PRO systems: Road Dogs off ATS Loss and Tickets vs Money NBA Spread (both 55% against the spread since 2005).

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns

9 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Suns (+11) 

You couldn't script a more lopsided game. The Warriors (24-13) are, well, the Warriors, while the perennial cellar-dwelling Suns (9-28) look primed for another top lottery pick.

So of course, wiseguys will take advantage of public bias and back the disgusting play because the value is too good to pass up.

Golden State opened as a 10-point road favorite. Wiseguys sat back and let heavy public betting (75% of bets) push the line to -11. That's when they pounced on Phoenix at an inflated +11.

The Suns match a highly profitable Bet Labs contrarian system called Inflated Lines. Since 2005, teams getting 30% or less bets with at least one point of additional line movement (think Suns +10 to +11) have gone 55.2% ATS, producing +88.75 units.

One injury to monitor: Devin Booker is questionable (back). If he suits up, expect the line to fall. If he's out, expect it to rise.