Sharp Bettors Finding Spread, Over/Under Value on Pacers-Heat

Sharp Bettors Finding Spread, Over/Under Value on Pacers-Heat article feature image
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Catalina Fragoso-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Victor Oladipo

  • Sharp bettors have found value on both the spread and over/under of tonight's Pacers-Heat matchup (8 p.m. ET).
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals reveal which way the smart money is going.

With two college football games taking the brunt of Friday’s sports wagers, the NBA’s seven-game slate has taken somewhat of a back seat tonight.

The most heavily bet game (Celtics-Jazz) is on pace to see about one-sixth of the bets that tonight’s Fresno State-Boise State matchup is garnering.

Sharp bettors haven’t found a ton to work with on Friday’s NBA slate either, as the only game seeing significant activity from wiseguys has been Pacers-Heat.

But while it’s only one game, it has drawn sharp action to two bets — one on the side, and one on the over/under.


>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets.


Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

8 p.m. ET

Sharp angles: Miami (moved from -1.5 to +1.5), Under (moved from 211 to 207.5)

Generally, a team moving from an underdog to a favorite can be seen as a potential sign of sharp action. In this case, however, the line movement toward Indiana looks more to be a result of Goran Dragic’s injury news, rather than any betting activity.

In fact, the betting market activity shows that sharps have been betting against the Pacers tonight, even following the Dragic news.

Miami has drawn only 29% of bets, but those bets have accounted for 61% of dollars wagered on this game, indicating that bigger bettors — more likely to be sharps — are behind the Heat.

They’ve also triggered two Sports Insights Bet Signals — indications of sharp action — one of which came after Dragic’s absence was announced.

As for the total, it has fallen more than three points since opening behind 78% of dollars on only 54% of bets, meaning the average bet on the under has been close to three times bigger than the average over bet.

Three Bet Signals have also hit the under contributing to the line move, the most recent of which came at a total of 208.5.

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