Betting odds: Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
- Spread: Thunder -1.5
- Over/Under: 218
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets
The 18-9 Denver Nuggets, who will again be without both Gary Harris and Paul Millsap, will host the 17-9 Oklahoma City Thunder. The Nuggets have been off since Monday — does the extra rest impact tonight's spread at all? Our analysts dive into tonight's matchup.
Trends to Know
Denver last played on Monday and has had four days to prepare for OKC at home. So we have a good team (win rate of at least 60%) that is well rested (four or more days between games) and playing at home — advantage Nuggets, right?
It really depends on when the games is played. Since 2005, teams in this situation have gone 76-101-6 (43%) ATS in the first half of the season but 75-63-5 (54%) ATS in the second half. Good teams at home with extra rest, like the Nuggets, are overvalued early in the season when the grind of an 82-game schedule is less likely to impact opponents. — John Ewing
On Wednesday night, the Thunder lost on the road to the Pelicans and now face the Nuggets in Denver before returning back home.
The Thunder have one of the best records in the Western Conference, but traveling to Denver is never easy. Since 2005, teams with a win rate of 60% or higher traveling to Denver to face the Nuggets on at least the second game of a road trip are 34-53-2 ATS (39.1%), failing to cover the spread by 2.5 PPG, losing bettors 20.4 units.
In this spot, no road location is less profitable for teams than Denver, with second-place Miami a full five units behind. — Evan Abrams
Locky: Why I Lean Thunder ATS
This spread really represents the conflict of two opposing handicapping viewpoints. It basically answers the question, “What do you consider most important: recent form or fatigue?”
If recent form is your answer, the Thunder deserve to be favored.
A simple efficiency-based model using their last three or last five games against the same sample as Denver produces a spread that has the Thunder a small-to-medium favorite (basically anywhere from about -1 to -6 depending on how far back you go), and that’s with giving Denver a very sizeable home-court advantage.
If fatigue wasn't a factor (and what a world that would be, although I do love my bed), the Thunder have a little value at -1 or -2.
But let's assume fatigue is a factor. Denver hasn’t played a game since Monday. Aside from the All-Star break, the Nuggets basically have as long a break as you can have as a team during the season.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are on a more conventional schedule: They played Monday and again Wednesday. This will be their second game of a road trip. If you give an advantage to Denver for that variable, where does that leave you?
I think appropriate weighting in this case should emphasize the recent form, and for good reason: Since Gary Harris has been hurt, Denver has had a lot of really lackluster efforts, including losses to the Hawks and Hornets.
Now with Paul Millsap out and Jamal Murray nursing a bruised shin, I think there’s reason to believe the Denver you’ll see Friday night minutes-wise will be a worse group than their season-long stats indicate.
That type of drop-off in performance more than overcomes a marginal fatigue spot in this case, but it’s still close, and this number isn’t that off target.
I would lean Thunder at -1.5 right now and will be more interested if the line moves in OKC's favor. — Ken Barkley
Mears: My Thoughts on Tonight's Matchup
Over the whole season, these two teams aren't far apart: The Thunder sit third in the NBA with a +7.4 point differential; the Nuggets are sixth at +6.3.
Over their last 10 games, however, the Thunder have really been playing elite basketball. They're second in the league behind only Boston with a +11.1 point differential during that span, and they easily own the league's best defense, allowing a stingy 98.8 points per 100 possessions.
The Nuggets haven't been bad over their last 10, still sitting sixth with a +6.1 point differential, but the gap is wider given OKC's recent play.
I think John's trend about fatigue in the first section is quite compelling: Fatigue is important, but it's probably overvalued early in the season. Denver having a rest advantage after 30 games in December is much different than having it after 60 games in 2019.
All in all, these teams aren't that different. They both are middle of the league in effective field goal percentage and mostly rely on great rebounding to prop up their offensive efficiency numbers. The Nuggets had the edge in that regard in their first game this year, for whatever it's worth.
In that first game, the Nuggets won in Oklahoma City, 105-98. That was mostly because the Thunder posted a 40.3% effective field goal rate — the third percentile of games this year. They shot just 45.7% at the rim (fourth percentile) and 23.1% from the 3-point line (seventh percentile).
That said, it was off the second leg of a back-to-back, and the Thunder started out incredibly slow, going down by 21 points at half; the biggest lead was 25 for Denver before OKC turned it on in the second half to make it close.
I would expect a better performance from the Thunder tonight, although Evan's trend about teams in Denver is scary. Further, the Thunder have been favored in five straight games vs. the Nuggets and have yet to cover any of those. I'll probably stay away from betting this one: The data says the Thunder are better, but the historical trends are tough to ignore. — Bryan Mears
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
