Pacers vs. Bucks Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions: Trust Milwaukee as a Double-Digit Home Favorite?
Photo credit: Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Myles Turner and Khris Middleton
- Updated betting odds for Wednesday's Bucks vs. Pacers NBA matchup have Milwaukee favored by 11 points at home, and the total is set at 221.5.
- Sharp bettors have been finding value on that over/under, and our NBA expert Matt Moore has made a pick on the spread.
- Check out all the analysis, including both the sharp pick and expert prediction, below.
Pacers at Bucks Picks, Betting Odds & Predictions
- Spread: Bucks -10.5
- Over/Under: 222
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Bucks clearly have high expectations, as portions of the NBA media world really questioned them after a tough road back-to-back loss Monday against the Miami Heat, who have been awesome at home this year.
They’ll look to bounce back at home tonight against the Pacers, who are winners of four straight after really struggling through most of February.
Where’s the value in this one? Our experts break it all down below.
Betting Trends to Know
Good teams win; great teams cover. And the Bucks are clearly a great team. They’re 35-26 ATS this season, including a 27-3 straight-up and 18-12 ATS record at home.
The Pacers, meanwhile, are just 16-14 straight-up on the road, although they have been profitable spread bets in that spot, going 17-12-1 ATS.
Pacers-Bucks Sharp Report
Simply comparing opening to current odds doesn’t do this game justice. This total opened at 222, and that’s exactly where it currently sits.
However, after starting out at 222, this number jumped to a consensus of 223, and that’s when the sharps struck.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which track and report professional betting action in real time, have triggered three separate smart-money indicators on the under, explaining why the total is back down to 222 at DraftKings Sportsbook and across the market.
In addition, just 34% of bets on the total have landed on the under, but those tickets make up 63% of the money, so it’s reasonable to conclude that bigger wagers from influential bettors are backing the Pacers vs. Bucks under.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 223 to 222) [Bet now at DraftKings. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Moore: How I’m Betting Tonight’s Game
You know what I’m going to say here.
I’ve whiffed on the Bucks in two spots this week, so I’m a little nervous. But here’s the reality: Mike Budenholzer is 27-19 (58%) ATS vs. division teams as a home favorite. With Milwaukee? He’s 11-3 ATS in that spot. As a double-digit favorite at home vs. Eastern Conference teams, Budenholzer is 34-22-2 (61%) ATS, including 24-14-2 ATS with the Bucks.
The Bucks are 6-2 ATS after a loss this season. Their offense has had consecutive down games vs. Charlotte and Miami. Either that’s the start of a significant trend or it was a blip in an otherwise sterling two-year offensive run.
The Pacers don’t shoot enough 3s to be able to keep pace with the Bucks. These games between good defensive teams that don’t have firepower go the same way vs. Milwaukee. They hang around for a while and then the Bucks hit them with a flurry toward the end of the first half (Thunder) or in the third quarter (Raptors) and the game slips away.
I’m not jumping ship on the Bucks after one bad loss on a back-to-back vs. a good team.
THE PICK: Bucks -10.5
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.