Sixers vs. Raptors Game 7 Betting Preview: Look to Live Betting for Value

Sixers vs. Raptors Game 7 Betting Preview: Look to Live Betting for Value article feature image
Credit:

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Ben Simmons (25), Kawhi Leonard (2).

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors Betting Odds

  • Spread: Raptors -6
  • Over/Under: 209
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: TNT
  • Series Score: Tied 3-3

>> All odds as of Saturday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.


The most beautiful two words in sports: Game 7.

These teams each have an impressive road win in this series. Can Philly do it again? Or will Kawhi and Co. take care of business at home? Our analysts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The Raptors opened as 6.5-point favorites in Game 7. Since 2005, the chalk in winner-take-all showdowns has gone 25-20 against the spread. Teams favored by more than three points have gone 25-14 (64%) ATS. — John Ewing

Both the Raptors and Nuggets lost by double digits in Game 6 and now have an uphill battle in Game 7. Since 2013-14, teams who lose by double-digits in Game 6 are 10-14 (41.7%) ATS in Game 7. — Evan Abrams

The Sixers escaped with a win on the road in Toronto in Game 2, breaking a 14-game road losing streak north of the border. Since 2012-13, the Sixers are 2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS in Toronto, failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game. — Abrams


Locky: How I’m Betting Game 7

The mystery of Joel Embiid adds at least one more chapter in this postseason. Much like with Games 4, 5 and 6, I was hesitant to give any opinion on the side or total because Embiid’s status was so uncertain. He’s kind of a big deal.

In each of those three games we had three very different outcomes: a close Raptors win, a blowout Raptors win and a blowout 76ers win. What will we get when we spin the wheel again on Sunday?

What I do know is that for someone with Embiid’s litany of health issues, the extra day of rest can only help. Can he distance himself from illness even if the lingering tendinitis remains? His offense was still very rusty in Game 6, but his defense was exemplary on Pascal Siakam; that was a big reason why he finished with a plus-minus of +40. 40!!

And he shot only 5-for-14. Really an amazing statistical confluence if there ever was one. Even that type of performance at both ends may be enough here, but he can’t slip back into passive, fatigued, lazy Embiid.

If Embiid was even half as effective as normal, the Sixers are better and they should win the series. They let Game 4 completely get away from them when Embiid was so ineffective (and his replacements were as bad as you can possibly get), and that game may very well be the one they regret if they come up short here.

But in Game 7, I like taking the best team, and to me the best team is Philly. They don’t have the best player, but they arguably have the next best four players (depending on where you slot Siakam), and I think they’ll get more out of their bench with James Ennis and Mike Scott than Toronto can reliably get out of anyone.

Embiid remains a mystery, but getting 6.5 points in the most important game of his career — I’ll bet that he at least gives a Game 6-level performance. — Ken Barkley


Mears: How I’m Handicapping Today’s Game

This series has been the most difficult to handicap on a game-by-game basis. Leonard has been the only consistent player, and factors like Embiid’s health and role players’ effectiveness have changed on a whim.

I thought the Raptors had a good chance of closing things out in Game 6, mostly due to an adjustment head coach Nick Nurse made. He matched Embiid’s minutes with Marc Gasol’s, who has done an absolutely terrific job defending him and forcing him into tough shots.

That was the case in Game 6, but it didn’t matter, as Jimmy Butler and especially Ben Simmons had excellent games. The role players off the bench like James Ennis and Mike Scott also played well at home. If you think Simmons won’t replicate his performance and those bench guys will be worse in a road Game 7, that Gasol factor still applies and could be a difference here.

That said, I don’t think Locky is wrong in thinking Philly is the more talented team when healthy. Outside of Kawhi, the Raptors roster has been inconsistent, and there’s no guarantee they’ll come through in the crucible of a Game 7, even at home.

Trends-wise, though, things currently favor the Raptors. Teams getting sharp money have done well historically in the playoffs (per Bet Labs):

And that’s been especially true of favorites this year. Those matching the below trend have gone 17-6 ATS this season:

With so many conflicting factors, I don’t have a strong take on the side and will likely pass. That’s the case with the total as well, which is now at a series-low 209; there’s no value in the under anymore.

I can’t leave you without any actionable takeaways, though. The only consistent thing in this series outside of Leonard has been that these teams haven’t really ever gone on runs or come back in games. Here’s each game, with which team was winning at the end of the first, second and third quarters:

With such excellent defenses and some really disappointing shooters, leads in this series have stuck at an extremely high rate. In fact, whichever team has been winning any quarter has gone on to win the game. Thus, there’s probably more value in feeling out the game early and trying to jump on some live betting opportunities. — Bryan Mears


Moore: Why I’m Betting the Raptors’ Team Under

I am now 1-4 betting on the Raptors’ team total over in this series. I keep having faith in their offense vs. a questionable Sixers defense, and it keeps burning me.

I’m 26-18 on team totals in the playoffs and yet 1-4 in this series on the Raptors (1-0 on the Sixers). So I’m no longer going to believe in them. I’m going with the under of 209 and the Raptors’ under of 107.

Unders in a Game 7 are 26-19 since 2005. They’re typically tight, ugly games with both teams desperate, nervous and exhausted. The Sixers have given better-than-expected defensive performances, and with Toronto going 1-5 already on their totals, I’ll bank on a typical Eastern Conference slugfest and go with the unders, even if I lean towards a Raptors win. – Matt Moore


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.