Spurs-Raptors Betting Preview: Will San Antonio Continue to Crush Overs?

Spurs-Raptors Betting Preview: Will San Antonio Continue to Crush Overs? article feature image
Credit:

Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: DeMar DeRozan

Betting Odds: San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors

  • Spread: Raptors -7.5
  • Over/Under: 226
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets


In Revenge Game Part II, Kawhi Leonard and DeMar DeRozan will battle against their former teams. The Spurs dominated the first matchup, but will the new-look Raptors with Marc Gasol bounce back? Our analysts dive in.

Betting Trends to Know

San Antonio is 13-34 (27.7%) straight-up and 19-28 (40.4%) against the spread (ATS) on the road over the past calendar year. Only five teams have a worse SU win rate on the road over that span: The Bulls, Knicks, Grizzlies, Mavericks and Suns. Only the Grizzlies and Wizards have a worse ATS win rate.

The most interesting aspect of the Spurs’ road struggles is the fact that the over is an astounding 32-13-2 (71.1%), going over the total by 6.8 points per game.

A bettor would have made $1,750 wagering on the over in Spurs’ road games over that span; the next team is the Nets at a lowly $466. Evan Abrams

Friday night will be the Spurs’ sixth road game of their eight-game road trip, dating back to before the All-Star break.

Since 2005, Gregg Popovich has excelled on the tail end of long road trips, going 27-19 (58.7%) ATS when playing at least the sixth consecutive game on the road. Dating back to February 2015, the Spurs are 9-0 ATS in this spot, covering the spread by 12.3 points per game. Abrams


Mears: Value on the Over/Under?

As Evan highlighted above, the Spurs have some extreme home/road splits…

  • Overall: +0.9 Net Rating (12th), 113.7 ORtg (6th), 112.7 DRtg (24th)
  • Home: +6.6 Net Rating (11th), 115.3 ORtg (7th), 108.6 DRtg (17th)
  • Road: -4.6 Net Rating (20th), 112.1 ORtg (4th), 116.7 DRtg (28th)

Interestingly, they somewhat maintain offensive efficiency — their rating drops, but is a higher rank in the NBA — but the defense absolutely tanks. On the road, they’re bottom five in field goal percentage allowed at literally every spot on the floor, including at the rim (28th) and beyond the arc (29th).

That said … the Spurs blew out the Raptors in their only meeting this season; DeRozan, the former Raptor, dominated the game with a triple-double. Is it possible the Spurs just get up in this matchup more than others?

I’m a little skeptical of that, to be honest.

First, they were at home — and, again, crazy splits. Second, it was really just unsustainably hot shooting: The starters combined to go 9-of-12 from beyond the arc. Overall, they shot 50.0% from the 3-point line and also dominated inside, going 73.9% at the rim.

The Raptors will look different this time around, too. They were without Kyle Lowry in that one, and statistically he’s so impactful.

Kyle-Lowry
Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Lowry

The Raptors are 10.1 points per 100 possessions worse with Lowry off the floor vs. on this season, which is in the 92nd-percentile of all players.

They’ll also continue to integrate Marc Gasol, who has played just 60 minutes for Toronto but is getting acclimated. Perhaps the All-Star break even helped with that.

For all of those reasons, I’d lean the Raps, but the over/under is probably more interesting.

The public is on the under — perhaps because it crushed last night? — which is getting 50% of bets but 84% of the money. As a result, it’s moved down from 227.5 at open at 226 as of writing (see live odds here).

I’d wait to see if it’ll keep moving down with that much money coming in, then grab it at a lower number later in the day.

The Spurs are 9-1 to the over in their past 10 games, 21-9 in away games and 20-7 when they’re underdogs. Those are compelling trends, especially combined with the matchup analysis.Bryan Mears


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.