Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Fade Brook Lopez vs. Pacers
Photo Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA Today Sports, Pictured: Bucks C Brook Lopez (11)
- Sunday's four-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Hornets SF Miles Bridges, Clippers SF Paul George, and Bucks C Brook Lopez
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s four games:
- Charlotte Hornets at Boston Celtics: 6 p.m. ET
- Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder: 7 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks: 7 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Hornets SF Miles Bridges
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-120)
Bridges’s playing time has been an absolute rollercoaster this season. He’s had games where he’s played tons of minutes and games where he’s barley played. He’s been somewhere between those two extremes recently, logging 26.5 minutes in his most recent contest.
Bridges has averaged just 14.4 points per 36 minutes this season, so he has unsurprisingly struggled to hit the over on his current prop given the reduction in playing time. He’s scored 10 points or fewer in each of his past four games. Things don’t figure to get much easier for him vs. the Celtics, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency and 22nd in pace.
Bridges’ scoring prop has not adjusted to his new role with the Hornets. I like the under up to -140.
Clippers SF Paul George
THE PICK: Over 6.5 rebounds (-148)
Kawhi Leonard will get the night off for the Clippers, which undoubtedly gives George a boost in value. Most people will likely look at the over on his scoring prop, but don’t sleep on his increased production on the glass. He’s increased his rebound rate by +1.2% with Leonard off the court this season, resulting in an average of 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. He’s currently projected for 35.6 minutes in the FantasyLabs NBA Models, so that should be enough playing time for him to hit the over.
This is grading out as one of the best bets of the day in the Prop tool, earning a Bet Quality of 10. With that in mind, I’d play this bet up to -175.
Bucks C Brook Lopez
THE PICK: Under 10.5 points (-114)
Lopez “exploded” for 14 points yesterday vs. the Knicks, which makes this a nice opportunity to sell high on him. Prior to that contest, he had scored 10 points or fewer in nine straight games.
He has a subpar matchup for scoring today vs. the Pacers. They currently rank sixth in defensive efficiency and 23rd in pace, and Bucks’ implied team total of 113.75 is well below their regular season average (120.7).
This line is simply too high given what we’ve seen from Lopez this season. I like the under up to -130.