The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Pacers on the spread, with the over/under set at 230.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -470 favorite to win outright, while Indiana is +360 to pull off the upset.
Oklahoma City has the best defense the league has seen in the last 25 years. Indiana has been the best shooting team in the playoffs and posted an endless stream of clutch wins.
Which team will walk away with their city’s first NBA title? Let's get into my Pacers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, June 5.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction, Picks for NBA Finals Game 1
My Thunder vs. Pacers Game 1 best bet is on Oklahoma City to cover the spread, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best line using our live NBA odds page.
My Pick: Thunder -9.5 (-115)
Pacers vs Thunder Odds for Thursday, June 5
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 230.5 -105o / -115u | +360 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 230.5 -105o / -115u | -470 |
- Pacers vs. Thunder spread: Thunder -9.5
- Pacers vs. Thunder over/under: 230.5 total points
- Pacers vs. Thunder moneyline: Pacers +360, Thunder -470
- Pacers vs. Thunder best bet: Thunder -9.5 (-115)
Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Finals Game 1 Preview
The Thunder are four wins away from capping one of the best seasons in NBA history with 68 wins, the best point differential in NBA history, and the franchise’s first title since moving to the Sooner state.
The Pacers are four wins away from becoming the greatest Pacer team among a secretly brilliant history with dozens of playoff appearances and two conference titles, capping what might go down as the most unexpected title run ever.
It’s time to ride the lightning. The trends certainly love the sound of Thunder.
- Home favorites in Game 1 of the Finals are 19-3 SU and 18-4 ATS.
- Favorites of more than a possession (-4.5 or more) are 16-3 ATS.
- Home favorite 1-seeds are 11-1 SU and ATS (the one loss being the 2013 Heat against the Spurs).
- The Thunder are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home in the playoffs thus far. Their average ATS margin in wins is 17.8 points per game.
- Teams in the Finals who were not a top three seed are 1-4 SU and ATS as road underdogs in Game 1.
- Home favorites who won more than five games than their opponent are 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in Game 1.
From a market standpoint, this number has stayed largely where it is, thanks to a divided betting public.
We’re tracking 51% of the tickets on the Pacers and 51% of the money on the Thunder, with some sharp action on Indiana.
It’s the opposite on the moneyline, with the big money on Indiana and the public on the Thunder at a heavily-juiced number.
If I give the Thunder a bump for homecourt, which I think they deserve based on their performances and the history of home favorites in the Finals, I land right at this number.
I don’t blame a Pacers bettor, it’s a lot of points for a team that has stolen two Game 1s, won all three, and consistently outperformed the market.
But I’ve been higher on the Pacers than the market the last two rounds and still have OKC in a comfort spot here.
From a basketball standpoint, it’s strength vs. strength, as the Pacers don’t turn the ball over and the Thunder live off turnovers.
If the Pacers avoid turnovers and turn this into a shooting variance contest, that gives them a chance. But Indiana needs to win a lot of margin areas where the Thunder are dominant in order to simply give themselves a chance.
Indiana’s halfcourt offense has been terrific in the playoffs, second-best, and the Thunder’s halfcourt offense is good, but not elite.
Again, if the Pacers can mitigate the possession advantage that Oklahoma City enjoys every game, that goes a long way.
The Thunder will switch and deny switches on on-ball screens with Tyrese Haliburton as ball-handler, forcing him to get downhill and make tough shots, which isn’t his game.
If he defers, the other perimeter ball-handlers will likely fall into the clutches of OKC’s Steal Machine.
The exception here is Pascal Siakam, who is great in isolation without turning it over, but will have to go against the bulldog that is Alex Caruso most of the time.
The Pacers need to hit their open corner three-pointers against the best closeouts they’ve seen in these playoffs.
Pacers vs Thunder Game 1 Betting Predictions
Thunder -9.5
I could script you five different ways the Pacers can win this game, they’re not so outmatched as to be drawing dead.
But when I look at the history of this spot for dominant teams against non-dominant teams, and what the average margin is in those games, especially if the home team wins the game, I get to a place where I want to bet OKC.
Under 230.5
Take all those dominant trends for home favorites above and just run them back for the under.
- Home favorites in Game 1 have seen the under hit in the Finals at a record of 14-8, with an average total margin of -6.5. When they do go under, the total margin is -14.9 on average.
- Teams with a better point differential across the regular season and playoffs have seen the under go 13-4.
- The under for 1-seeds at home in Game 1 is 9-3.
There’s a chance that the Pacers continue their hot shooting and that, combined with a higher turnover rate for Indiana as the Thunder get their usual amount of steals for dunks, pushes this game over the total.
But this is the best defense the Pacers have seen by far, and a little bit of shock and awe is to be expected. Both teams are unfamiliar in this spot, and nerves might hit equally with two younger teams on this stage.
In the end, I make this total 222 based on the strength of the Pacers defense against a good-not-great halfcourt offense for the Thunder.
Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 Assists (-105)
Haliburton had just 5.5 assists per game in the two regular-season meetings against the Thunder and far fewer potential assists than his average.
The Thunder won’t blitz him. They’ll send sneaky double-teams when he’s not expecting it, but for the most part will switch and dare him to beat them.
He’s not ready for that, and the Thunder will camp in passing lanes when he tries to jump-pass out.
Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (+110) / To Record 8+ Rebounds (+176)
The Pacers may find themselves having to go small here, which is never a good idea against Oklahoma City, but is a little better with Indiana's personnel.
A Siakam-Toppin frontcourt means they can switch more in pick-and-roll, and Siakam can grab the ball and push in the non-Haliburton minutes.
Lu Dort 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-180)
Dort is phenomenal at home in the playoffs, shooting 37% from three-point range.
It’s heavy juice, but don’t bother taking the alternate lines. Just stick with the over 1.5 here.
Pacers vs Thunder Best Bets for NBA Finals Game 1
- Thunder -9.5 (-115)
- Under 230.5 (-115)
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 Assists (-105)
- Pascal Siakam Over 6.5 Rebounds (+110) / To Record 8+ Rebounds (+176)
- Lu Dort 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-180)
Pacers vs. Thunder Betting Trends
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