For the first time in nearly a quarter century, the Indiana Pacers are heading to the NBA Finals. Behind another brilliant performance from Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers closed out the New York Knicks in Game 6 at home.
Now, the Pacers are four wins away from their first championship in franchise history. The Finals await against the Oklahoma City Thunder — let's dive into some notes, stats and trends on the unlikely trip to the Finals for Indiana, followed by a few notes on the Thunder below.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Sunday, June 1st
Top Dog
Pacers Unlikely Trip To Finals
A Pacers win against the Thunder in the NBA Finals would make betting history across the board.
- Indiana entered the regular season at 66-1 odds to win it all — the longest price for any team to make the NBA Finals in the last 40 years. Six other teams have made it at odds of 30-1 or higher, with all six losing the series.
A win against OKC would not only give Indiana the biggest dog to win a title in that timeframe, but it would be double the price of the next-closest team (2014-15 Warriors at 28-1).
- The Pacers entered the playoffs with 80-1 odds to win it all — the third-longest odds of any team to make an NBA Finals since the merger in 1976-77. The other teams to enter The Finals at 20-1 odds or higher haven’t had the easiest road — they are 0-5 in the series, with all five teams losing in 6 games or less.
Massive Favorite
Thunder Close To Title?
NBA Finals Series Price
Thunder: -700
Pacers: +500
The Pacers are massive underdogs in the NBA Finals against the Thunder. Since 1985, 33 teams have been -400 series favorites or higher in the Conference or NBA Finals and they are 30-3.
The upsets?
2023 Heat over Celtics
2009 Magic over Cavaliers
2004 Pistons over Lakers
At -700, the Thunder are the 11th team favored at -600 or higher in the NBA Finals over the last 50 years — those teams are 10-1 in terms of winning the title, with just the 2004 Pistons over the Lakers as the lone upset.
Hot Dog
Pacers Are Dogs, Again
After beating both the Cavaliers and the Knicks as series underdogs to get to the NBA Finals, the Pacers have now joined an exclusive club of teams to win series as underdogs in the Conference Semifinals and Finals:
2025 Pacers
2024 Mavs, lost
2023 Heat, lost
2020 Heat, lost
2010 Celtics, lost
1999 Knicks, lost
1995 Rockets, won
Those teams are 1-5 in the previous six NBA Finals in this spot, with just the 1995 Rockets winning a title.
No Expectations
Pacers Win Totals
The Pacers entered the regular season with a win total of 46.5, which would be tied for the seventh-lowest mark for any team to make the finals since 2001-02.
The previous seven teams to enter the NBA Finals after a win total of 46.5 or lower lost the series, with none of the seven series even going seven games.
Ironically enough, back in 2011-12 after a strike shortened the season to 66 games, the Thunder entered the year with a win total of… 46.5, and made the NBA Finals with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Russell Westbrook before losing to the Heat.
Tough Start
Game 1 Means A Lot
The underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has struggled historically. Game 1 NBA Finals dogs are 2-18 SU and 3-17 ATS since 2005 and 4-25 SU, 8-21 ATS since 1996.
In the last 20 years, underdogs of above 5 points in Game 1 are 0-12 SU and 1-11 ATS in Game 1's — the last SU win came back in 2004 behind the Pistons as 8-point underdogs who went on the win the series.
Starting Big
Large Game 1 Spread
Now let's talk about the spread in Game 1. As of now, the Thunder are 9.5-point favorites at home against the Pacers in the series opener.
That is the 2nd-biggest Game 1 spread since 2001, only behind the Warriors -13 spread vs. Cavaliers in 2018.
The question is also: is the series already over? Any team to open the NBA Finals with a Game 1 spread of 8 or more are 9-1 in terms of winning the series, with the only loss coming again from that 2004 Pistons team who took Game 1 and the series in 5 games.
The Yellow-Print
Pacers Identity
If you want to learn about the Pacers, there are four things to know.
- They are 11-5 ATS entering the NBA Finals, including 7-3 SU and ATS as underdogs and they are 6-2 SU and ATS on the road in this year's playoffs.
- When the Pacers are coming off a loss in this year's playoffs, they are 4-0 SU and ATS in their next game, covering the spread by 18.4 PPG in those four matchups.
- Nobody comes back like Indiana. In this year's playoffs, the Pacers are 6-1 against the second-half spread when trailing at the half. Overall, Indiana is 10-6 against the 2nd half spread in the playoffs, best mark of any team.
- Indiana has trailed by 15+ pts at any point in seven games in the playoffs — and are 4-3 SU in those games — the best mark of the 151 teams with 4+ such games in a playoff campaign since 2002-03.
Popular Vote
Public Bets
In the Bet Labs database, which goes back to 2005 for NBA, there are 114 NBA Finals games. Only five of those 114 closed with one team receiving over 70% of betting tickets, including the Celtics in Game 4 last year.
- 73%: 2024 Celtics (-1) at DAL; Game 4. DAL, 122-84.
- 72%: 2022 Warriors (-4) vs. BOS; Game 1. BOS, 120-108.
- 72%: 2022 Warriors (-5) vs. BOS; Game 2. GSW, 107-88.
- 71%: 2021 Suns (-3.5) vs. MIL; Game 5. MIL, 123-119.
- 71%: 2019 Warriors (+2.5) at TOR; Game 2. GSW, 109-104.
Overall, the public has struggled betting the NBA Finals. Teams with over 51% of betting tickets are 47-60-2 ATS (43.9%) in the NBA Finals since 2005, a $100 bettor would be down $1,540. Public sides of more than 60% in the NBA Finals are 10-17 ATS since 2005.
Low, Low, Low
Look Under Early
The profitable angle in the NBA Finals has been the first half under, going 66-44-4 (60%) since 2005, including 18-4 over the last four finals.
The majority of the damage has come in Games 1-4 of the NBA Finals, with the 1H under coming in at 48-28-4 (63.2%).
All Chalk
Thunder Favored Trip To Finals
Here are the odds for the Thunder to advance past each of their four rounds of the playoffs so far.
R1: -3000
R2: -750
R3: -350
R4: -700
Only five times prior to this year has a team been favored at -300 or longer in each of their four series, including the NBA Finals:
2020 Lakers
2017 Warriors
2000 Lakers
1997 Bulls
1996 Bulls
ATS Kings
Thunder Cover Run
The Thunder have been an ATS juggernaut. Over the last 4 seasons, OKC is 208-140-9 ATS (59.8%). A $100 bettor would be up over $5,000 betting on Oklahoma City. The craziest part? The next closest team to OKC is the Celtics at +$677.
At 61-35-1 ATS in 2024, including the playoffs, that is the best mark for any team entering the NBA Finals in the last 30 years.
The Thunder have faced 31 teams from the Eastern Conference this season, they are 29-2 SU and a historic 23-6-2 ATS this season, covering 9 in a row entering this series. OKC's 23-6-2 ATS (79.3%) mark vs. non-conference opponents would be the best over a full season since the 2000 Rockets, who finished at 82.8%.
Getting Hot
Playoff Favorite
The Thunder — not the Celtics — entered this year's playoffs as the favorite to win it all. The Celtics had that honor last year en route to a title.
Two different teams, both as the lone-favorites entering the playoffs, haven't won the title in consecutive years since 2002-03 with the Lakers and Spurs — who did it again in 1999 and 2000, the only two times it's been done since 1990.
What A Run
Thunder Historic Season
The Thunder were listed as underdogs just four times all season, entering the NBA Finals, the fifth-lowest mark for games as a dog before the Finals in the last 30 years and the list is impressive, with four title winners:
1997 Bulls, 0 — Won Title
2024 Celtics, 3 — Won Title
2017 Warriors, 3 — Won Title
1996 Bulls, 3 — Won Title
2025 Thunder, 4
From Indiana's standpoint, the Pacers have been underdogs 41 times already this year, entering the finals, the most for any team in the last 30 years.
Winning Time
Thunder Get To 80
On Wednesday night, the Thunder officially won their 80th game of the season straight up, which put them in an exclusive group. Only four teams in history have won 80+ games entering the NBA Finals:
2024-25 Thunder
2015-16 Warriors
1996-97 Bulls
1995-96 Bulls
Not only that, OKC is beating their opponents by 12.9 PPG, the highest mark for any team in NBA history. Only four teams have had a 12+ PPG margin, including the Thunder and the previous three all won it all.
2024-25 Thunder, +12.9
1971-72 Lakers, +12.3
1970-71 Bucks, +12.3
1995-96 Bulls, +12.2
