Betting Arizona-Arizona State: Can Hurley Finally Beat the Wildcats?

The Sun Devils looked decent offensively in the first meeting in Tucson. They moved the ball reasonably well and Tra Holder in particular penetrated with ease against Arizona's pack-line defense. Speaking of Holder, he has regained his swagger after a rough stretch in January, scoring 20+ in five of his last six.

Arizona's defense is basically a pack line in name only this year. Miller has looked and sounded like a coach at the end of his rope when talking about this defense. And for good reason. He hasn't had a defense this porous since his first season in Tucson. Even Miller's 2011-12 team that missed the NCAA tourney played significantly better defense.

The Wildcats issues on D start with their inability to contain dribble penetration. Parker Jackson-Cartwright routinely gets run over by bigger guards, Allonzo Trier lacks lateral quickness, and Rawle Alkins' foot injury limits his quickness. ASU's Holder, Remy White, and Shannon Evans all have the quickness to give Arizona's leaky perimeter defense issues.

Additionally, Deandre Ayton and Dusan Ristic have struggled defending the post. Ayton is a physical specimen, but he struggles with his footwork and gets confused with his rotational responsibilities in the pack line. Ristic, a senior, is just a lost cause defensively at this point. ASU big man Romello White is undersized in comparison to Ayton and Ristic, but he scores efficiently on the block.

With that said, ASU only scores .625 points per possession when White or De'Quon Lake are doubled in the post, as neither have developed a strong pass out game. Teams that have made Ayton and/or Ristic defend in pick and roll have had major success offensively (see UCLA), but Arizona State lacks the stretch 4 to make those two leave the paint. While I expect ASU to score against the Wildcats like most Pac-12 teams, it will come via penetration and kick-outs from their quick backcourt. White and Lake simply can't exploit the weaknesses in Arizona's frontcourt (much like the first meeting).

When Arizona has the ball