Surprisingly, we have a 50-game slate on Wednesday, headlined by the start of Big East conference play.
However, I'm dipping my toes into the mid-major level, with a trio of totals between lower-tier squads (plus Oregon).
Read on for my college basketball best bets and NCAAB expert predictions for Wednesday, December 17.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
UCSB vs. Green Bay Pick
This game is a rather strange non-conference tilt, with UCSB journeying to the Lambeau tundra for a one-off contest in between a trip to Salt Lake City on Saturday and hosting Portland next Monday.
That spot alone has me interested in backing Green Bay.
But then I remembered the Phoenix’s coach is a radio host, and UCSB is significantly more talented.
I decided to focus on the total instead.
The primary reason for the under is pace.
Green Bay prefers to play in the half-court, ranking 330th nationally in average possession length, and UCSB is a slower team as well (286th in pace). The result could be a game that has even fewer possessions than the projection of 65 (via KenPom).
I have some concerns about efficiency.
UConn transfer Aidan Mahaney has found a groove recently, lighting up Big West opponents for 56 combined points across his past two games. The Gauchos boast a top-100 offense and are a good shooting team.
However, lead guard Miro Little is out with an injury, and that could hinder UCSB’s ability to create quality looks.
Green Bay’s defense has been an issue at times.
The Phoenix lack impact defenders, resulting in a turnover rate that ranks 364th nationally and 2-point defense that ranks 333rd.
Fortunately, UCSB isn’t constructed to exploit these shortcomings, as the Gauchos are more of a perimeter-based attack. They rank 322nd nationally in 2-point scoring distribution.
The market has clearly seen some of the factors I am looking at.
The total has been bet down from 147.5 (and even 149 at some domestic books) to 145.5.
But I still see some value down to 143.
Pick: Under 145.5 (Play to 143)
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Maryland Eastern Shore vs. Wagner Pick
Yes, we are digging deep for this wager.
I understand it may not be glamorous, but I follow where my handicapping dictates value.
Unsurprisingly, with a total below 130, this matchup features two slow teams with poor offenses.
The visitor is the primary focus, as UMES plays at a staggeringly low pace (364th nationally in average possession length) and scores at a violently inefficient rate (349th in offensive rating, per KenPom).
The two key indicators in UMES’ season are back-to-back games against Canisius and Binghamton. Those resulted in a 60-57 loss (58 possessions) and a 63-52 win (60 possessions).
Both opponents want to play slowly, the way Wagner does, and those contests were meandering, inefficient affairs as a result.
Meanwhile, Wagner has also been playing some faster competition (Maryland, Georgetown).
Still, the Seahawks do have one clear comparison point: a 63-61 loss at fellow snail Fordham, a game that had just 59 possessions.
Wagner will happily play slowly if that is what the opponent dictates.
The pattern with both teams: Power Conference teams with way more talent can speed them up. But pitted against equal competition, both teams are content to sit in a dragging half-court slog.
I expect one of those here, with efficiency lacking as well.
One bonus: neither team gets to the free-throw line with any frequency. UMES ranks 363rd in free-throw rate, while Wagner ranks 304th.
That should prevent a free-throw parade that would undermine the pace and inefficient scoring.
Pick: Under 129.5 (Play to 126)
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Portland vs. Oregon Pick
Oregon’s offense finally had its “get right” game, exploding for 104 points (an absurd 1.44 points per possession) against UC Davis.
Even more impressively, that was with star center Nate Bittle only playing seven minutes and starting wing Devon Pryor missing the game.
The Ducks grabbed 14 offensive rebounds – especially impressive considering they only missed 24 shots from the field.
Portland must avoid being destroyed inside, and fortunately, the Pilots have more size than UC Davis.
The starting frontline of 6-foot-8, 220-pound Cameron Williams and 6-foot-10, 230-pound James O’Donnell is solid on the glass, and reserves Timo George (6-8, 245) and Jermaine Ballisager Webb (7-1, 250) supplement that group.
The way to beat the Pilots’ defense is via the 3-ball (342nd nationally in 3-point rate allowed), not in the paint.
Bittle’s status looms large. His ankle injury has lingered for the last few weeks, and Dana Altman will surely be careful with his best player – particularly with a showdown against Gonzaga up next on Sunday.
He is a clear “Under Player” per the on/off data — per Hoop-Explorer, Oregon’s offense is eight points better without him, and the defense is 17 points worse. However, both of those numbers are fueled almost entirely by 3-point variance.
Oregon’s pace will be significant here.
I don’t expect anything helter-skelter with the Zags on deck, and the Ducks have typically played around the national average in tempo.
Portland will push it, but efficiency should remain reasonably low.
Pick: Under 155.5 (Play to 153)
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