Wake and Rake: Sharps Pounding High-Profile Wednesday Matchup
If you’ve been following this column for the past week-and-a-half, you know we’ve been on quite a run for our overall strategy of getting down early in the day with professional bettors.
Before we get to the marquee college hoops game that the wiseguys are all over tonight, a quick word: The wins are exciting, but don’t overlook the importance of beating the closing line, also referred to as closing line value (CLV). For example, in yesterday’s Wake and Rake, we highlighted Mississippi as a side that wiseguys were playing when the number was +9. Professional money continued to hammer the Rebels down to +7.5, meaning we beat the number by a point and a half.
As bettors, we can’t predict the future and force games to go our way. However, through data, tools and experience, we can get our money in at good numbers, which is crucial to winning over the long haul.
With the idea of CLV being the ultimate goal, professional bettors have been very active this morning, including a substantial play on one of tonight’s biggest matchups.
Let’s take a look.
Tonight’s showdown between Louisville and Duke is so big it’s already getting the full betting guide treatment from our team of college basketball experts, but it’s also been a prime target for sharp money.
Bookmaker.eu opened this total at 159.5 and a whopping 86% of early tickets have taken the over. However, an even more stunning 89% of dollars wagered have played the under, driving this line down to 157 across the market.
As I wrote in yesterday’s debut of Fade or Follow, knowing which lines have moved is certainly important, but knowing why they moved is imperative to diagnosing which games are offering betting value. Based on the screenshot above, it’s clear that the overwhelming number of bettors are on the over, but the biggest bets from respected players have taken the under, forcing oddsmakers to react by moving the line.
Credit: USA TODAY Sports