College Basketball Odds & Picks: Stanford vs. Oregon, La Salle vs. Saint Joe’s
Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyrell Terry
- After enduring a bad loss to Oregon State this week, Stanford sits firmly on the bubble entering its Saturday night matchup against Oregon.
- The Cardinal's strong shooting and defensive efficiency make them one of the better teams in the Pac-12, but can it keep up against Oregon?
- See the full betting breakdown below.
Today I’ll dive into one of the uglier games on the slate (though Mississippi Valley State and Arkansas Pine Bluff are playing, so it can’t be the worst game).
La Salle (14-15, 18-10 against the spread) heads to Hagan Arena for an inner city battle with Saint Joseph’s (6-24, 12-16-2 ATS) and for some reason the Hawks are favored.
Then, we’ll take a look at Oregon-Stanford, which tips at 11 p.m. ET.
La Salle at Saint Joseph’s Odds
- Spread: Saint Joseph’s -1.5
- Over/Under: 146.5
- Time: 2 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
The Hawks are one of the worst offensive teams in the country, especially from behind the arc, which is a problem since they attempt the fourth-most 3s per game in the country.
The Explorers, who aren’t a great defensive team overall, defend against 3s very well, ranking 31st in the country in defensive 3P%. I think the Saint Joe’s offense is too bad to be favored in this game, especially since La Salle’s strength is defending behind the arc.
La Salle isn’t great offensively ranking 241st in Offensive efficiency according to KenPom, but the Explorers do rank slightly above average in 3P% and ORB%. Saint Joe’s on the other hand is horrid defensively, ranking 312th in defensive efficiency, 310th in eFG%, 350th in defensive turnover percentage, and 337th at defensive 3P%. Even though La Salle’s offense isn’t great, I think it will be able to score efficiently against this Hawks defense.
If your looking for a trend La Salle is 10-4 ATS coming off a loss and Saint Joseph’s is 0-4 ATS as a favorite this year.
Scott Spencer, La Salle’s starting shooting guard, is questionable for this game, but even with him out my model has this game La Salle -1.46, so I would play the Explorers as an underdog.
The Pick: La Salle +1.5
Stanford at Oregon Odds
- Spread: Oregon -7.5
- Over/Under: 133
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
I know, you’re never trusting me again after picking Stanford +1 on Thursday and after what happened at Arch Madness last night, but hear me out: I have a problem and its betting on Stanford. I cannot quit the sixth-best team in terms of defensive efficiency.
Adding to that (I said it on Thursday, but it rings more true today), Stanford (20-10, 19-11 ATS) absolutely needs a win tonight against the Ducks (23-7, 18-12 ATS) and a deep run in the Pac-12 Tournament to have a shot at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament.
Stanford has been the best shooting team in Pac-12 play this season, ranking first in the Pac-12 at eFG%, 3P%, and 2P%, while Oregon’s defensive efficiency, defensive eFG%, 3P%, and 2P% are all middle of the road during Pac-12 play. If Stanford can shoot the ball they way they’re capable of shooting when they are on, and their gross shooting from Thursday in Corvallis doesn’t carry over to today, I think they will be able to score effectively on offense.
Stanford is one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking sixth in defensive efficiency at 89.2, according to KenPom. Stanford also ranks top 10 in the country in defensively in eFG% and 3P%. This side of the floor will be really fun to watch as during Pac-12 play as Oregon ranks top-three in almost every offensive metric, while Stanford’s defense ranks top-3 in almost every defensive metric. If the Cardinal stays out of foul trouble and defends at their normal level, they can limit Oregon offensively.
Another big factor in this game is Oregon’s injury report. The Ducks are missing their starting guard Chris Duarte (12.9PPG, 5.6 RPG). Without Duarte, more pressure will put on Payton Pritchard to carry the Ducks offensively.
My model has Oregon -3.10 in this game, so I think there is plenty of value on Stanford +7.5 and my threshold of still playing it is +5.5.
The Pick: Stanford +7.5