The Florida Gators take on the Duke Blue Devils in Durham, NC. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by -8 points on the spread with a moneyline of -380. The total is set at 156.5 points.
Here’s my Florida vs. Duke prediction and college basketball picks for December 2, 2025.
Florida vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: Florida +8 (Play to +7)
My Florida vs Duke best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Florida vs. Duke Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 156.5 -110o / -110u | -380 |
- Florida vs Duke spread: Duke -8
- Florida vs Duke over/under: 156.5 points
- Florida vs Duke moneyline: Florida +300, Duke -380
Florida vs Duke College Basketball Betting Preview
Florida Basketball
The reigning national champs hit a major hiccup in California during Feast Week, dropping a stunner to TCU on Thanksgiving Day as 11-point favorites. That was Florida’s second loss of the season already, and the Gators are just 1-6 against the closing spread.
The backcourt has been a glaring issue so far. Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland are bricking their way through the season (combined 19-of-84 from deep, 22.6%), and they're simply not providing the level of shot creation and playmaking needed to make the Gators’ offense go.
In that loss to TCU, they combined for just three assists compared to four turnovers.
That duo’s shortcomings have pushed more of a burden to the rest of the lineup, and even the Gators’ stellar returning frontcourt — including high-usage forwards Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh — couldn't take care of the ball against the Horned Frogs.
Florida’s top four big men had 14 turnovers against TCU, and generally, that group is having to shoulder far too much of the offense as Lee and Fland struggle.
On the plus side, the Gators have remained extremely stout on the boards and at the rim. The Gators rank top-25 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebound rate, per KenPom, and their 2-point percentage defense sits 20th nationally as of this writing.
The stinginess on defense remains, led by the colossal frontcourt and lineups with Haugh at the 3. That interior fortitude keeps the Gators stable, and if the offense figures it out, they could quickly be back among the nation’s elite.
One additional note: Condon missed the Gators’ Black Friday win over Providence after taking a blow to the chin against TCU. That absence was reportedly precautionary, though, and he should be back in the starting lineup in Durham on Tuesday.
Duke Basketball
While teams like Michigan, Iowa State and Vanderbilt were stealing headlines during Feast Week tournaments, Duke opted for a one-off game against Arkansas in Chicago. For the third time in November, the Blue Devils came away with an impressive neutral-site victory.
No star has shined brighter this season than Cam Boozer, Duke’s freshman basketball savant. Boozer posted a ridiculous 35-point, nine-rebound, three-assist performance against the Razorbacks, giving him a marquee performance to go with his utter domination against inferior mid-majors.
He is all but unguardable one-on-one thanks to his pristine footwork and outstanding finishing touch, and he is fully capable of punishing opponents who send too much attention his way.
The rotation saw more stability against Arkansas. Caleb Foster has seized the point guard position, logging 33 minutes to freshman Cayden Boozer’s paltry eight. Patrick Ngongba II (29 minutes) is the clear winner at center, with Maliq Brown (15 minutes) fading into more of a complementary role off the bench.
Nikolas Khamenia continues to command more playing time, and the freshman forward’s smooth perimeter stroke, length and positionally-sound defense have clearly earned Jon Scheyer’s trust already.
In Duke’s three games that matter, the Blue Devils have turned out the lights on opposing offenses down the stretch. Against Texas, Duke was ahead 51-48 with 9:30 left. The Blue Devils won the remaining time 24-12.
Against Kansas, Duke turned a 67-64 lead with 5:00 left into an easy victory with an 11-2 closing run. And against Arkansas on Thanksgiving, the Blue Devils closed with a 19-7 run over the final 6:30 after trailing 64-61.
The defense knows how to tighten the screws when it counts.
Florida vs. Duke Betting Analysis
What an on-campus showdown early in December! Credit to both Scheyer and Todd Golden for playing this game. Both teams should get a great litmus test from this one.
The Gators get to see how their new backcourt looks in a hostile road environment, while the younger Blue Devils face an imposing foe with a giant frontcourt and championship mettle.
How Florida defends Boozer is the primary storyline here. Haugh is probably the best matchup for the freshman phenom considering his combination of size and mobility. But with Haugh playing the 3, the Gators could opt for a bigger option in Condon or Rueben Chinyelu.
Chinyelu is likely doomed to foul trouble in that scenario, but he is massive and athletic, potentially giving Boozer troubles.
Off the bench, Micah Handlogten is another option in the same vein. Golden probably throws multiple looks at Boozer, as Duke’s freshman star is simply too smart to see the same defender over and over.
This line is reflective of Florida’s shaky start out of the gate. The Gators have fallen outside the top 15 per KenPom, while Duke’s buy game demolitions and late surges have pushed it up to the analytically elite tier.
Florida playing its first true road game is certainly worrisome, especially with the way the backcourt has fared against power-conference opponents thus far. I still believe that Lee and Fland have some positive shooting regression coming, though, and the frontcourt battle could be a stalemate.
At the risk of losing to another Duke closing run, I think this line is too high. The Gators can limit Boozer with size, strength, length and depth. As long as the Gators’ guards hit a few jumpers, this one should go down to the wire – even at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
I would bet it down to +7.
My Pick: Florida +8 (Play to +7)
