CBB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Washington-Arizona, 3 Other Thursday Games
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Wildcats head coach Sean Miller
- Wiseguys are betting four College Basketball games on Thursday, headlined by Iowa-Indiana (9 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Washington-Arizona (9 p.m. ET on ESPN2).
- Sharps are also getting down on NC Wilmington-Drexel (7 p.m. ET) and San Francisco-Gonzaga (9 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Nebraska got crushed last night, but sharps still turned a profit as they cashed both the Texas A&M spread and Creighton-Villanova Under, finishing Wednesday night 2-1 overall.
Everyone wants to go 3-0 and win every bet they make, but wiseguys know that betting is a marathon, not a sprint. Keep grinding out 2-1 days and the units will stack slowly but surely.
After analyzing Thursday’s 64-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified four games that pros are targeting, with start times of 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college basketball odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
NC Wilmington @ Drexel
7 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 165 to 162.5)
Wiseguys have been cashing on high conference over/unders (150 or more) that fall. This CAA total fits the system perfectly.
The over/under opened at a high 165. Bets are split right down the middle, yet the line has fallen all the way to 162.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t budge, aside from a juice adjustment of a cent or two, if the bets are even.
So what caused the total to plummet? Follow the money.
The under is receiving 50% of bets but a whopping 90% of dollars, a clear indication of the big wagers banking on a lower-scoring game.
We also noticed a pair of steam moves on the Under via Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, with Goodfellas hammering Under 166 and Under 164.
Iowa @ Indiana
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Indiana (moved from +1 to -2.5)
Sharps are all over Jimmy Chitwood and the upset-minded Hoosiers tonight.
Iowa enters this prime-time showdown with the superior record (17-5) and a 20th-overall ranking, while Indiana is unranked and sits at 13-9.
The Hawkeyes opened as 1-point road favorites. Naturally, the public sees a short spread with the “better team” and says Iowa all day. However, despite Iowa receiving 60% of bets, the line has completely flipped from Iowa -1 to Indiana -2.5.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam moves on Indiana, with sharps hammering the Hoosiers at a pick’em once, and twice more at -1. This overload of smart money forced oddsmakers to move the line bigly toward Indiana.
Washington @ Arizona
9 p.m. ET | ESPN
Sharp angle: Arizona (moved from +2 to -1.5)
The Wildcats are in almost the identical sharp spot as the Hoosiers, being a contrarian home team in a heavily bet conference game that flipped from dogs to favorites.
Washington boasts an impressive 18-4 record and has won 11 straight, while Arizona is 14-8 and has lost three in a row. So of course the sharps are capitalizing on recency bias by buying low on Zona and selling high on the Huskies.
This game opened at Washington -2. Despite receiving 70% of bets, the Huskies have moved all the way to +1.5. Why would the books move the line to make it easier for Average Joes to cover with the Huskies?
Because Goodfellas have been putting down big money on the Wildcats.
We’ve noticed three separate steam moves on Arizona, with sharps hammering Zona twice at +1 and a third time at a pick’em.
San Francisco @ Gonzaga
9 p.m. ET | ROOT Sports NW
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 151.5 to 150)
The Zags are one of the top scoring teams in the country, averaging 91.22 points per game. As a result, public players couldn’t care less what the total is. Hammer the Over. Lock it up. Take it to the bank.
This WCC total opened at 151.5. Currently 76% of bets are taking the Over, yet the line has fallen to 150. This is a clear example of reverse line movement, with the books adjusting the total down to compensate for heavy smart money on the under.
So far this season, conference unders that are 150 or higher and fall at least one point have gone 50-26 (65.8%).
Also, wiseguys know that unders crush in games with high spreads, as blowouts tend to result in lower-scoring games with the favorite playing great defense and taking their foot off the gas pedal late in the game.
Since 2005 when the home favorite is -15 or more, the total is 150 or higher and the line either stays the same or falls, the Under has hit at a 57.9% clip.