The Providence Friars take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in Uncasville, CT, as part of Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase. Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET on truTV.
Providence is favored by -4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -210. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here’s my Providence vs. Penn State prediction and college basketball picks for November 22, 2025.
Providence vs Penn State Prediction
My Pick: Providence -4 (Play to -6)
My Providence vs Penn State best bet is on the Friars to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Providence vs. Penn State Odds
| Providence Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
- Providence vs Penn State spread: Providence -4
- Providence vs Penn State over/under: 160.5 points
- Providence vs Penn State moneyline: Providence -210, Penn State +175
Providence vs Penn State College Basketball Betting Preview
Providence Basketball
While Penn State has played a weak schedule, Providence has already faced two high-majors (Virginia Tech and Colorado). However, the Friars let both chances slip by the wayside.
On the plus side, the Friars finally have the guard weaponry to push the tempo. After ranking outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo last season, they're inside the top 20 in the same category.
The Friar faithful can thank the speedy Jason Edwards for that improvement. Edwards was limited to being a bench gunner at North Texas and Vanderbilt, but he’s morphed into a legit point guard. He’s averaging over 20 points per game, but he also adds 4.6 assists a night.
Adding players like Edwards and Jaylin Sellers has flipped Providence into an offensive powerhouse. The Friars recorded 1.11 PPP or more in all five games, while jumping to 45th in KenPom's offensive efficiency.
One aspect of the Friars that allows them to play at a fast pace is having four starters who can rip and run off of rebounds.
Estonian freshman Stefan Vaaks and Ryan Mela have terrific length on the wing and both are comfortable handling the ball and passing. It's such a luxury to have four ball-handlers who can pass it and score.
I can't only talk about the positive parts of Providence's roster. Unfortunately for the Friars, defense matters, too. And thus far, they seem to think it's optional.
Providence has been stung by opponents shooting 36% from downtown, leading to it slipping to 112th in KenPom's defensive efficiency. Some teams just can't defend the arc at all, but oftentimes, it's more of a variance thing.
In this matchup, I'm not very worried about Penn State firing away successfully from deep against Providence.
Penn State Basketball
Penn State is a perfect example of using its weaker schedule to its advantage. Sure, the Nittany Lions are 5-0, but it’s an unimpressive 5-0. They have three wins by single-digits in three of their five games, winning narrow contests against Harvard, Navy and Fairfield.
This will serve as a major jump up in competition. The previous best team on Penn State’s schedule was Harvard, which sits at No. 162 in KenPom. Meanwhile, Providence checks in at No. 72.
From a talent perspective, Penn State is one of the least talented high-major teams. Three scorers average double-figures, led by talented freshman Kayden Mingo (17.7 PPG) and Turkish freshman Melih Tunca (14.4 PPG).
Mingo is more of a threat inside the arc than from deep; he's shooting just 17% from 3-point land, but he's still shooting 50% from the field.
Earlier this week, Harvard thrashed Penn State for 1.25 PPP and went 18-for-30 (60%) from 2 and 12-for-27 (44%) from deep.
That performance outlined some of the big issues with the Nittany Lions' defense formula. It's a Mike Rhoades team, so you can expect pressure and turnovers. This team is no different, forcing turnovers at a 21.7% clip.
However, the defense is a total nightmare in the half-court, allowing opponents to shoot 54.9% from inside the arc.
Missing on the roster is a clear shot-swatting option to deter guards from touching the paint. Finding a replacement for a player with Yanic Konan Niederhauser's skillset is impossible. But it's troubling that in five games, Ivan Juric is the only Penn State forward with a block — and he has one singular swat.
On the flip side, Penn State gets shredded at the hoop, allowing opponents to shoot 54.9% from inside the arc.
Providence vs. Penn State Betting Analysis
What happens in this game boils down to which team controls the tempo. I already discussed just how important it is for Providence to push the tempo. It's equally as important — if not more — for Penn State to play closer to its 276th-ranked adjusted tempo.
The Nittany Lions are going to struggle keeping the litany of Providence guards out of the paint. Once Edwards and Co. escape the frontline of Penn State's defense, it's an easy path to the bucket or to getting fouled.
With the line sitting at -4, I'll go with the Friars. I actually view them as pretty undervalued.
Providence looked better than Virginia Tech for most of that game until collapsing late, and playing in Boulder is a tough task due to altitude.
I'm not going to be overly critical of Providence for either loss.
Plus, Penn State is worse than both of those teams by a pretty fair margin.
My Pick: Providence -4 (Play to -6)
