College Basketball Odds & Picks for Kansas vs. Oklahoma: Back the Under in Big 12 Rematch
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Kansas Jayhawks forward Jalen Wilson (10).
- Brady Manek is set to return to Oklahoma just in time for a rematch against the Kansas Jayhawks.
- Manek will provide a boost to the Sooners on borth ends of the court in what should be a low-scoring matchup.
- BJ Cunningham sees value on this Big 12 game total. Read on to find out how he's betting Kansas vs. Oklahoma.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma Odds
Kansas looks to end its two-game losing streak while also securing a season sweep over Oklahoma in Norman on Saturday.
The Jayhawks are really struggling at the moment after dropping back-to-back games to Oklahoma State and Baylor on the road. They are now two games back of Baylor for the top spot in the Big 12, and another loss on Saturday would essentially eliminate them from the regular-season title race.
Kansas did squeak out a victory over Oklahoma two weeks ago, and a repeat performance on the road against the Sooners would be a big result.
Since the loss to Kansas two weeks ago, Oklahoma has beat up on the bottom of the Big 12. The Sooners have blown out both TCU and Kansas State in their last two games by 25+ points. They were missing one of their best players, Brady Manek, the last time these two teams squared off, so will he be the difference in the rematch?
When Kansas has the ball
The Jayhawks tend to lean on the 3-point shot, as almost 40% of their field goal attempts are coming from deep in Big 12 play. They can justify it by shooting over 35% from beyond the arc, but Oklahoma shut them down from deep two weeks ago. The Jayhawks shot 30% on 3-point attempts and made only six.
David McCormick took advantage of the 6-foot-9 Manek’s absence and absolutely dominated down low. The junior scored 17 points on 8 of 14 shooting from inside the arc, and the Sooners had no answer for him.
Kansas is also typically a machine on the offensive glass, grabbing boards at a ridiculous 34% rate in conference play. However, it was only able to grab six offensive boards in these teams’ last meeting.
With the return of Manek, I think the Jayhawks will struggle with second-chance opportunities.
The way teams have typically beat Oklahoma this year is by shooting a ton of 3-point shots. The Sooners allow their opponents to shoot over 35% from 3-point range but have really put the clamps down as of late. Over their last three games, Oklahoma’s defense is allowing under 25% shooting from behind the arc.
The Sooners also defend at a high level inside the arc, allowing only 44.3% from 2-point range. If the Sooners can defend better around the paint this time around, they should be able to shut down Kansas’ offense.
When Oklahoma has the ball
The absence of Manek in the first meeting was huge for the Sooners because he is the team’s second-leading scorer and shoots over 40% from 3-point range. However, Oklahoma has really struggled shooting the ball since it entered conference play. The Sooners are eighth in the Big 12 in both 2- and 3-point percentage, per KenPom.
In the first meeting with Kansas, the Jayhawks held the Sooners to 0.91 points per possession and 38% shooting from the field. Oklahoma isn’t a great offensive rebounding team and doesn’t get to the free throw line at a high rate, so it is likely going to have to shoot a high percentage from the field on Saturday to win.
Since conference play began, Kansas has been defending at an elite level inside the arc. The Jayhawks are allowing opponents to shoot justonly 45% from 2-point range and held the Sooner to only 42% in the first matchup.
However, Kansas is allowing their opponents to shoot over 38% from 3-point range.
The Jayhawks are in the top three in the conference in defensive rebounding and free throw rate allowed, so the way to beat Kansas is to shoot a high percentage from deep.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Only 121 total points were scored in this meeting two weeks ago because both teams struggled from the field. The return of Manek will improve the Sooners on both ends of the floor, so I think Kansas is going to have a hard time shooting a high percentage from inside the arc this time around.
I only have 137.68 points projected for this game in Norman, so I’ll back under 141.5 points (FanDuel) or better.
Pick: Under 141.5 points