Syracuse-Baylor Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

#8 Syracuse vs. #9 Baylor NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

• Spread: Syracuse -2
• Over/Under: 135.5
• Date: Thursday, March 21
• Time: 9:57 p.m. ET
• Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
• TV: truTV

Syracuse's Statistical Profile

Syracuse finished sixth in the ACC behind five Top 25 programs. The Orange 2-3 zone continues to stymie opponents as they allowed 65.3 points per game in the regular season. Cuse’s defense ranks 20th in the country in KenPom’s defensive adjusted efficiency (93.9).

The teams biggest win came against a then No. 1 Duke squad who had a fully healthy Zion Williamson back in January. Unfortunately, that is about the time Jim Boeheim’s team peaked. Syracuse finished the regular season losing six of their final nine games.

But college basketball fans would be foolish to ignore the Orange when filling out their bracket. Syracuse has a history of exceeding expectations when the calendar flips to March. The Orange have appeared in the NCAA tournament 39 times and have gone 68-39.

The team’s last two appearances were as double-digit seeds in 2016 and 2018. Boeheim lead the team to the Sweet 16 each year. — John Ewing

• Record: 20-13
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 35
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 58
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
• Tempo Rank: 254

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Baylor's Statistical Profile

Baylor is limping into the postseason. After starting conference play 6-2, the Bears went 4-6 against Big 12 opponents in the second half of their season. Scott Drew’s team ended the regular season on a three-game skid.

Despite the poor recent form this is a squad that has shown an ability to compete with the best teams in the country. Baylor topped Texas Tech by double digits and twice beat a ranked Iowa State team. The Bears rank 36th overall in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric.

Baylor missed the tournament last year but had been dancing the previous four seasons and has now participated in March Madness eight times since Drew took over the program in 2003.

In 17 NCAA tournament games under Drew the Bears have gone 7-10 against the spread. In the teams past six tourney games Baylor is 1-5 ATS. — John Ewing

• Record: 19-13
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 43
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 28
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 74
• Tempo Rank: 290

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Sean Koerner's Syracuse-Baylor Projections

Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

• Spread: Syracuse -1
• Total: 133.5
• Proj Score: Syracuse 67.5 | Baylor 66.5
• Win Probability: Syracuse 50.2% | Baylor 49.8%

Syracuse-Baylor Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

Zone-on-zone crime here, which is a real shame, as I like to see all of the zone teams play non-zone teams.

There are only eight teams in the field that run a zone defense on over 30% of their possessions. The Orange and Bears are two of them — although Cuse will run its 2-3 a lot more than Baylor will run its 1-3-1 (93.3% vs. 40.2%).

You could see that percentage rise against a Cuse offense that has been extremely poor against zones this year: Syracuse's offense ranks in the 16th percentile nationally against zones. Baylor's ranks in the 72nd.

The winner of this game could potentially cause problems for Gonzaga. There's a reason these two teams have made deep runs before. Foreign zones are tough in a tourney setting.

Early ATS lean: Baylor
Early bracket pick: Baylor — Stuckey