Clemson-Boston College Betting Guide: Tigers Are Rolling, But Can You Lay These Points?
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trevor Lawrence
Clemson-Boston College Betting Odds, Pick
- Spread: Clemson -19
- Over/Under: 56.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
Clemson has been on a tear, scoring an average of 60 points over its past four games. The Tigers are now laying almost three touchdowns on the road in a ranked matchup.
Boston College has a solid secondary that will hope to limit Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, but will the Eagles be able to move the ball against a stout Tigers front seven? Let’s dive in.
>> All odds as of noon ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
Market Moves for Clemson-Boston College
A majority backing of Clemson (63% of bets and 53% of money) has moved this line from its opening. The Tigers are listed at -19 as of writing (see live odds here) after opening at -17.
The total has dropped despite a 50-50 betting split between the over and under. Fifty-nine percent of dollars wagered have come on the under, which has gone from 61 to 55.5 as a result.
How to Play the Falling Over/Under
By PJ Walsh
Clemson and Boston College both run the ball effectively, ranking seventh and 23rd, respectively, in rushing yards per game. When two teams that average at least 215 yards on the ground per game have matched up since 2005, the under has gone 230-180-7 (56.1%) according to our Bet Labs data.
On the other side of the ball, Clemson’s stout defense allows only 269.2 yards per game (third in the country), while Boston College defense checks in at a respectable 49th with 373.6 yards per game allowed.
And finally, the weather forecast doesn’t appear to be conducive for big plays through the air with 14 mph winds expected throughout the game. College football games played in double-digit breezes have finished under the closing total 54.3% of the time since 2005.
How Will Boston College Move the Ball?
We deal a lot with ranks out of 130 teams here. For example, Clemson ranks sixth in sack rate and first in yards per carry allowed. It provides more context to their relative performance than saying the Tigers’ sack rate is 10.7% and that they allow 2.24 yards per carry.
So Clemson’s defensive line and run defense ranks top five in almost every category. But I don’t think those ranks can quite quantify just how good of a unit this is.
There are four future NFL Draft picks starting. Three might go in the first round in 2019. Behind them are former four-star upperclassmen and a five-star true freshman. The numbers are absurd, and the national ranks don’t do it justice.
In theory, Boston College’s rushing offense — which is 23rd in yards per game and 52nd in yards per carry — against Clemson’s rushing defense should be the pivotal matchup in this game. But I don’t think it’s a matchup at all; I think the Tigers have a decisive edge here.
Not to mention Clemson might have the most dangerous set of running backs in the country. The Tigers lead the nation in yards per carry with 6.94 per attempt.
Can You Lay the Points with Clemson?
By Ken Barkley
How is this Clemson game going to be different than the others?
Since the Lawrence-is-injured-after-Kelly-Bryant-transferred Syracuse game, which is kind of a throw-out considering the circumstances, the Tigers have completely rolled through ACC play. They’ve covered four in a row against the Pinnacle closing number by margins of 39.5, 15.5, 31 and 23.
You can’t make Clemson numbers high enough. That 38 against Louisville was a joke, and coaches’ sons were scoring touchdowns at the end.
Can this be different?
I don’t think so, honestly. Clemson now sports a top 10 offense and defense in S&P+, something even Alabama can’t say (its defense is ranked 11th). The Tigers have a coaching mismatch in this game, and the special teams units are evenly rated. Boston College’s defense is improving each week, but is rated about where Florida State and N.C. State were before Clemson went in and shellacked both. This unit isn’t special compared to those, even if it’s finally showing promise.
Meanwhile, as Boston College’s defense improves each week, the offense sputters. And Clemson is, of course, by far the best defense the Eagles have faced all season, although they did play Miami already (and won).
Boston College isn’t being disrespected in the market, with all likelihood, either. The Eagles have covered four in a row, winning three in a row outright, and are probably rated about as well as they’ve been all season.
So if there’s no line value on the Eagles — like there would be, say, catching them off a loss or continuously disappointing the market — and the unit mismatches are enormous, what’s left to do but look at the raw numbers, see I have Clemson by 23 and make a small bet on the Tigers?
That’s what I’ll be doing.
Trends to Know
By John Ewing
Ranked teams that are home underdogs of a touchdown or more, like Boston College, don’t win often. These teams are 12-34 straight-up, losing on average by 10.4 points per game, but are a respectable 24-22 against the spread.
By Evan Abrams
Boston College is 2-29 SU all-time against top-five opponents and 0-12 SU at home against top-5 five teams. Both of BC’s top-five wins have come in South Bend against Notre Dame.
Clemson will be the second team this season to play on the road while beating their opponents by 30 or more points per game in November or later. (The Tigers are winning by an average of 34.4.) Since 2005, teams in this spot are 18-26 ATS (40.9%), losing bettors 8.8 units.