Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Betting Picks in Week 11

Nov 10, 2018 08:57 AM EST

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jordan Ta’amu and Michael Pinckney

  • Collin Wilson gives out his nine favorite college football betting picks for Week 11.
  • He's playing some home dogs and counting on the bottom rung of the SEC to step up late in the season.

A few upsets last week brought changes to the College Football Playoff rankings. Of note, No. 7 LSU is ranked higher than a one-loss Pac 12 leader No. 8 Washington State, No. 10 Ohio State ranks below No. 9 West Virginia, while No. 12 Central Florida continues to be passed by Power 5 teams.

According to The Action Network power ratings, No. 4 Michigan was the proper team to join the top four and No. 13 Syracuse may be the most overrated team in the playoff rankings. The Orange will get their shot in Week 12 against No. 3 Notre Dame.

The current top four is the dream scenario for Action College Podcast listeners. Clemson +750 was promoted preseason, Notre Dame numbers were suggested in Week 2, and Michigan futures were taken at the beginning of October. There is a bit of an issue with all futures running through some team named Alabama, but nothing that an open parlay card starting with the SEC Championship game can’t alleviate.

Before that, let’s pick some Week 11 winners.

This column will leverage The Action Network power ratings and plenty of advanced stats from Football Outsiders.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 12 projected spreads. Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 45-44-1

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All data below as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network app to get real-time odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.

College Football Betting Picks, Week 11

Fresno at Boise State

  • Spread: Boise State +3
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Time: 10:15 p.m. ET (Friday)
  • TV channel: ESPN2

Fresno State is receiving plenty of attention for blowing out some of the worst teams in college football. The Bulldogs have a point differential of +106 over their past three games against UNLV, Hawaii and New Mexico. None of those teams rank in the top 100 of the S&P+ ratings.

Fresno has a strength of schedule ranked 128th, and took a loss against Minnesota in Week 2 against a true freshman quarterback. At a ranking of 34th in S&P+, Boise State will be the toughest game of Fresno’s regular season.

Boise has taken 10 of the last 12 meetings between the two teams. And even putting historical data aside, Fresno will have issues moving the ball on the ground, as it ranks 113th in opportunity rate and 90th in stuff rate.

Boise’s defense ranks 21st and 33rd in the respective categories, which should translate to Fresno going to the air early and often. Boise State fields a defensive line that is second in the nation in passing downs sack rate, adding additional pressure to Fresno quarterback Marcus McMaryion.

Shop for the key number of +3 and don’t forget to have a little on the moneyline to start your weekend.

Play On: Boise State +3

Ole Miss at Texas A&M

  • Spread: Texas A&M -13.5
  • Over/Under: 68
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

This game pits two teams on consecutive conference losses looking to rebound. Ole Miss did not get a bowl ban lifted for this season, but did see a ruling that will help future recruiting. The seniors on this Rebels squad will be playing spoiler in their last three games against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

Quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has led the Ole Miss offense with over 3,000 yards passing and a 16-5 touchdown to interception ratio, with another 473 yards and 5 touchdowns on the ground.

Ta’amu leads the ninth-most explosive offense in the country, specifically ranking 12th in rushing and eighth on passing downs. That will be bad news for a Texas A&M team that has done nothing but give up the big play all season.

The Aggies rank 125th on standard downs and 129th on passing downs against explosiveness. Texas A&M just recently allowed explosive plays to a lifeless Auburn offense.

Expect plenty of points in this one. The Rebels will have a great chance to score from anywhere on the field.

Play On: Ole Miss +13.5

BYU at UMass

  • Spread: UMass +14
  • Over/Under: 60
  • Time: 12 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: Eleven Sports

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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