Army-Navy Over/Under Falling Thanks to Historical Trend

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James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Alex Aukerman and Malcolm Perry

  • After opening as high as 52.5, the total for Saturday's Army-Navy game is down to 39.5.
  • Bettors have been banking on a historically profitable trend to cause the drastic line move.

If you've taken a glance ahead at the lines for Saturday's Army-Navy game, you've probably noticed the especially low total. At 39.5, the over/under is tied for the sixth-lowest this season.

What's more impressive, though, is where that number started.

Depending on the sportsbook, the total opened anywhere from 44 to 52.5 for the earliest books to post, meaning in some cases it's fallen more than 10 points.


>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets.


Over the course of the week, 64% of bets accounting for 86% of money have played the under. That heavy support has been the cause of the line move, but causing that support has been a ridiculous historical trend.

Since 2005, when two service academies meet (Army, Navy, or Air Force), the under has gone 32-8-1 against the closing total, good for an 80% win rate.

Army and Navy in particular haven't hit an over since 2005, and have eclipsed the 40-point mark only once in their past six meetings, scoring 41 combined points in 2013.

The teams' unique yet similar styles of play are the reason for the profitable trend. Both run the ball as much as nearly any other team in the country, which by itself is enough to create value on the under.

Per Bet Labs, when two teams averaging at least 215 yards on the ground meet in a game with a total less than 59, the under has gone 148-100-4 (59.7%) since 2005. Simply put, keeping the ball on the ground maintains clock movement and reduces the number of scoring opportunities in a game.

But service academies take that system to another level.

Because they all center their offenses around the triple-option, they all also practice against it constantly on defense. That means no unfamiliarity when the teams meet on the field.

Mix constant clock movement with stagnant offenses, and you've got yourself a recipe for an under.

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