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Louisville vs. Virginia Odds & Pick: Big Money, Line Movement Reveal Sharp Side on Over/Under


Dannie Walls/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: The Virginia Cavaliers offensive linemen.

  • Danny Donahue leverages The Action Network PRO Report to reveal signals of sharp action and instances of betting market movement nearly in real-time.
  • One game lighting up our signals is Louisville vs. Virginia: A plurality of bettors has taken a position on the over, but the actual money splits are extremely slanted in the opposite direction.
  • Read on for Danny Donahue's college football betting markets analysis, including why our PRO Report suggests that the over is the square side in Cardinals vs. Cavaliers.

Louisville vs. Virginia Odds

Louisville Odds +3.5
Virginia Odds -3.5
Over/Under 66
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ACC Network
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For sharp bettors, Saturday looks to be a day for totals. Thanks to our PRO Report feature, we’ve already been able to clearly tell how they’re betting numbers in games like Wisconsin-Michigan, Baylor-Texas Tech and Fresno State-Utah state, to name a few.

Now we’re getting a look into their take on Louisville vs. Virginia, and if you’ve noticed a trend through the games mentioned above, you can apply it directly to the sharp pick here.

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Louisville vs. Virginia PRO Report

It’s another Saturday under for sharp bettors, which has been helped to light by a bet-vs.-money discrepancy. And according to our projections, there’s still plenty of value left.

Sharp Action

It took until gameday for sharps to really take a stand, but they have.

They’ve triggered a pair of Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused specifically by sharp action — on the under just today, making three in total to help explain why this line has switched directions from 67 to 66 despite 60% of bets landing on the over.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

While the over may be drawing the majority of bettors, though, it can’t say the same about the actual money split.

An impressive 89% of the money landing on this total has hit the under, which obviously is going to catch the attention of sportsbooks simply from a monetary perspective. However, it also tells us that the under is drawing much bigger bets. And what kind of bettors are most likely to be making those bets?


Big Money edge: Under

Model Projection

Right in line with the sharps’ opinions, our model projects this game with a total of 61.4, giving a few points of wiggle room (read: value) to the current line.

Model Projection edge: Under

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