College Football Odds, Sharp Picks: Michigan vs. Wisconsin, Texas Tech vs. Baylor Included in Saturday’s Sharp Bets
Steven King/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Milton
- Sharps, Action Network experts and our models are aligning on three over/unders on Saturday's slate.
- Danny Donahue breaks down the three Saturday games lighting up the most of our PRO Report's value indicators.
It may not feel this way following cancellation after cancellation over the past week, but there are still some games being played on Saturday. In fact, bettors will have close to 40 matchups from which to choose, which means there's almost certainly a few catching the attention of sharps.
Among those few, a group of three are also showing value through historically profitable systems, our model's projections, or landing picks from our experts:
- 2 p.m. ET | South Alabama vs. Louisiana
- 4 p.m. ET | Baylor vs. Texas Tech
- 7:30 p.m. ET | Wisconsin vs. Michigan
Let's take a look at how our PRO Report is finding that value.
Note: Data as of 2 p.m. ET Friday.
South Alabama vs. Louisiana
2 p.m. ET | ESPN+
It might not be the game you're most excited for this weekend, but it's certainly up there for sharps. And if our systems and model are any indication, there's good reason for them to be playing the under.
Sharp Action
Sports Insights Bet Signals serve as our measuring tool for sharp action, and they've left no doubt on this one. Eleven instances of market activity caused specifically by sharp action have been recorded on the under since this line opened, helping explain the total's drop despite a 70% majority on the over.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Big Money
Helping to confirm the sharp side, the 30% of bettors on the under have generated 48% of actual money. Of course, that's still not a majority, but it is a significantly higher percentage, meaning the under is drawing bigger bets.
And which bettors are more likely to be making those bigger bets? Sharps.
Big Money edge: Under
PRO Systems
Adding an element (literally) of value has been Mother Nature. This game is forecasted to be played in wind speeds of 13 mph, which is enough to fit our Windy Unders PRO System, boasting a 57% win rate since 2005.
PRO Systems edge: Under
Model Projection
Even with the 1-2 point drop in the total, our model — compiled by Collin Wilson — suggests the current number still has plenty of value.
Wilson pegs this over/under at 51.2, making this a valuable betting opportunity as of Friday afternoon.
Model Projection edge: Under
Baylor vs. Texas Tech
4 p.m. ET | FOX Sports 1
An identical story is unfolding in Lubbock, with all four of the same signals pointing to under value.
Sharp Action
Another clear target for sharps, this under has triggered 10 SI Bet Signals throughout the course of the week, confirming the drop from 60 to be a result of pro action.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Big Money
Like in the game above, this line move has come despite a minority of bets landing on the under, though this minority hasn't been as extreme.
Still, though, the 44% of bettors on the under have generated an impressive 74% of the loot, revealing themselves to be the bigger (and likely sharper) players.
Big Money edge: Under
PRO Systems
With an even windier forecast, this one should have no trouble fitting into our Windy Unders PRO System (57% since 2005). As of Friday afternoon, wind speeds of 18 mph are expected throughout the game.
PRO Systems edge: Under
Model Projection
A five-point edge still exists on this total according to our model, which pegs this game at 52.2, making it one of the biggest projection edges on the Saturday slate.
Model Projection edge: Under
Wisconsin vs. Michigan
7:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Sticking with what seems to be the Saturday theme, sharps have found value on another under, and in this case our experts are right there with them.
Sharp Action
Comparing the opening and current lines doesn't really tell the whole story of this total. That's because sharps didn't come down hardest until it had already been shifted significantly upward.
From the time it reached its high-water mark of 55 on Wednesday, four SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the under, making for seven overall under signals since the line was initially released. That's helped change the course of the movement despite 70% of bets on the over.
Sharp Action edge: Under
PRO Systems
Another windy forecast is presenting itself in Ann Arbor, where average speeds of 15 mph are expected throughout the game.
And with our Windy Unders PRO System cutoff at 13 mph, this game offers more weather-based value.
PRO Systems edge: Under
Top Experts
Our staff isn't waiting for Saturday to make moves on this game. As of writing, a pair of our college football experts have already taken the under.
You can follow all our experts picks, and get notifications right when they make them, by downloading the Action App.
Top Experts edge: Under
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