With the college baseball regular season starting to wrap up, it's time to hit the diamond for some more best bets on Friday.
This week, I'm focused on a number of key series, including Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee, Oklahoma vs. Kentucky, Oregon State vs. Iowa and Florida State vs. Cal
Let's dive into my college baseball picks and NCAA baseball predictions for these matchups on Friday, May 9.
Note: While parlaying these picks isn't our official recommendation, we've put together an easy way to do so with our ML plays below.
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Pick
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 11.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 11.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
I don't have a problem playing Tennessee from here on out. Some people are wondering how they're dropping so many series, and I get why that might raise eyebrows. But it’s not because of the pitching.
Liam Doyle, Tennessee's Friday starter, is rocking an impressive xFIP of 3.3. Meanwhile, the team ERA stands strong at 3.5, and the xFIP is 4.4, which is significantly better than any of the other teams in the SEC when you look at the entire staff.
We saw Arkansas hit a slump for a few weeks as well when it ran into some issues at the plate. Tennessee has had its fair share of slip-ups, too, but the advanced analytics say that the Volunteers are the real deal.
They’re the only team in the conference with three series wins on the road, and none of those wins were handouts against Missouri.
I project Doyle at -260 against Vandy's JD Thompson in the first game. I feel like they’re a solid bet against Vandy this weekend.
Pick: Tennessee ML -190 (bet365)
Oklahoma vs. Kentucky Pick
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 11.5 -125o / -105u | -115 |
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 11.5 -125o / -105u | -115 |
Kyson Witherspoon is someone we've been watching all season for Oklahoma, and he's been stellar, especially in the opening games for the Sooners.
Now, what's interesting is how deep he goes into games. He averages about six innings per start, which is even more impressive considering he couldn't pitch deep into games earlier in the season as he built up his arm strength.
For Witherspoon, six innings isn't a big deal anymore.
I've got him projected at around -160 over Nate Harris from Kentucky. People might speculate about who Kentucky will start pitching — it could be Nic McCay or others — and such a change could shift the betting line by 40 cents.
The key point here is that Witherspoon is a top-tier pitcher we've backed all season. With odds at -160, I'd be comfortable betting on OU not just on the moneyline but likely on the run line as well.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -110 (DraftKings)
Oregon State vs. Iowa Pick
| Oregon State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
N/A N/A | N/A -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
N/A N/A | N/A -110o / -110u | -115 |
When I took a look at the early projections for this week, my numbers showed Iowa's Cade Obermueller as a -244 favorite over Oregon State's Nelson Keljo. I just had to scratch my head for a second and think about how Obermueller is supposedly way ahead of Keljo.
I don't see any books placing Oregon State as a big underdog against Iowa in Des Moines, but let's dig into the stats.
Obermueller boasts an ERA that's a full run lower than Keljo and an xFIP that's 1.5 runs lower. That drives this forecast.
Now, when looking at calculated base runs, Iowa tallies 8.3 while Oregon State puts up 7.5, showing the Hawkeyes' superior numbers across the board — from starting pitcher stats to team ERA metrics.
Iowa could very well be the team to back all weekend. And if they want to label Iowa as a 'dog on the run line, I’ll snag that with some runs thrown in.
But honestly, this current line just isn't right.
Pick: Iowa ML +100 (BetRivers)
Florida State vs. Cal Pick
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -140 | 13.5 -105o / -125u | -450 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 +110 | 13.5 -105o / -125u | +320 |
As good as Florida State ace Jamie Arnold is, he tends to be priced a bit too high in the market. I've got him valued around -320 against Cal on Friday, but that number unsurprisingly sits even higher.
When that happens on the road, I typically glance at the run line for the other team for some value.
Now, Cal baseball isn't great and sits in the cellar of the ACC standings. Friday's starter, David Shaw, isn't a monster either with a rough 8.7. The only upside is that he usually gets pulled after just two innings.
Ultimately, it’s more about the whole Cal pitching staff trying to hang with Florida State.
It's also worth noting that playing on the road hasn't been Arnold's strong suit this season. He had a rough outing against Miami in March in which he gave up six earned runs, and then one week later, he struggled against Notre Dame by allowing four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings.
That also brings up the weather, which was less than ideal in that Notre Dame series. Now, Florida State faces a long journey to Berkeley, where it’ll be around the high 50s.
This situation screams Cal run line to me, even though I'm not a fan of betting on the Golden Bears.
Meanwhile, Florida State is comfortably sitting at No. 2 in the D1Baseball poll, so there's no stress there.
Yes, Arnold can be elite, but he struggles if he can’t pinpoint his pitches, especially in cooler weather like it’ll be in Berkeley. Arnold’s got a solid 2.29 ERA, but with a 4.2 xERA, there’s potential for regression. This game could spotlight that vulnerability.
Pick: Cal +3.5 (+110 · bet365)
