College Football Odds & Picks: Sharp Bets on Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss, Utah State vs. Fresno State
Bobby McDuffie/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Trey Lowe
- College football Saturday is here, and there's plenty more to bet on than just the big games.
- Sharps have taken notice of that and have targeted two under-the-radar games.
- Danny Donahue breaks down which games and sides they have targeted below.
They may not be the games you're most excited for on Saturday. Hell, you may not have even known they were happening. But that doesn't mean they can't offer betting value.
Fresno State vs. Utah State and Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky probably aren't going to rake in viewers this afternoon, but they've had no problem raking in money from sharp bettors.
Our PRO Report details how the sharps are betting each one, and our betting systems and projections offer good reason for the picks they're making.
Fresno State vs. Utah State PRO Report
2:30 p.m. ET
Sharps and big bettors — who are likely one and the same — are betting this under, and one of our weather-based PRO Systems suggests they're on the right side.
Sharp Action
On game day alone, Sports Insights Bet Signals — through market moves caused specifically by sharp action — have confirmed two instances of pro money hitting this under, making five overall, and helping to explain how the number has fallen today despite roughly balanced betting (53% of tickets on the under). It opened at 56.5 and is down to 52.5.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Big Money
But while bets might be balanced, the distribution of money is not so much. The 53% of bettors on the under have generated 67% of money hitting this total, which certainly causes a bit of a monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly serves as another sharp-action hint.
Since sharps are more likely to be the ones making bigger bets, that discrepancy further suggests pros to be backing the under.
Big Money edge: Under
PRO Systems
As for why the sharps may be betting this under, look no further than the weather forecast. Winds of 13 to 16 mph are expected in Logan, which fits this game into our Windy Unders PRO System — returning a 56.5% win rate since 2005.
Model Projection edge: Under
Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky PRO Report
3:30 p.m. ET
Big, sharp bets are hitting another under out of Conference USA, and our projections suggest this total could still have a ways to move.
Sharp Action
The pro action has been a bit more spread throughout the week in this case, as six SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the under since Monday. The betting market has certainly reacted, too, as this number has seen a 5.5-point drop from its high-water mark of 51.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Big Money
Once again, the bettors on the under (56% in this case) have been of the higher-spending variety, accounting for an impressive 82% of the money hitting the total, and providing another indication of sharps on the under.
Big Money edge: Under
Model Projection
As mentioned, our projection suggests that this total may still have some room to go yet. Collin Wilson's college football model projects this total at 42.4, providing a field goal's worth of value at the current line.
Model Projection edge: Under
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