College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Week 11 Spots for Indiana vs Penn State, LSU vs Alabama, More

As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card. Week 11 is here, and I have 11 spots I'm looking to bet on Saturday.

My primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.

It was a nice 6-2 bounce-back week last Saturday, so hopefully we can keep it going through the end of the season.

However, this is still college football. There will always be ups and downs, so always bet within your means. We are betting on college kids throwing around an oblong ball. A few bounces here or there can quickly turn any single Saturday into a 2-8 day.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my 11 favorite Week 11 spots. This will almost certainly be the biggest card of the season, so hopefully those bounces go our way!

• 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
• 2025: 39-34-2 (53.4%)
• Overall: 208-157-3 (57.0%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Saturday's Week 11 slate.

College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Temple +7
	12 p.m.	Mississippi State +7.5
	12 p.m.	Boston College +11.5
	12 p.m.	Penn State +14.5
	3 p.m.	UTEP +1
	3:30 p.m.	Iowa +6
	3:30 p.m.	UConn +10.5
	7 p.m.	Wake Forest +7
	7:30 p.m.	LSU +10.5
	7:30 p.m.	Kentucky +3.5
	9 p.m.	UCLA -2.5

Playbook

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Temple +7 at Army

12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

This looks like a nice spot to buy low on Temple after the Owls got blown out at home last week against East Carolina.

Quarterback Evan Simon had his first poor game of the season and really struggled with the conditions, which shouldn't be an issue this week.

The Temple defense got absolutely cooked by the ECU aerial attack in part due to a secondary that had to play most of the game without three starters.

They could return this week, but that's certainly not as big a concern against Army's triple-option offense.

It's also possible that Army potentially comes out a little flat after an emotional last-second win at Air Force last week.

The Black Knights certainly benefited from some good fortune in that game. Air Force turned it over three times (twice in the red zone) and missed a field goal in a last-second three-point loss.

I expect a bounce-back performance from Simon, who has 21 touchdowns to just one interception on the season. He will face an Army defense that can't generate pressure (119th) and ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in dropback Success Rate.

The Owls should also have more success than usual on early downs to stay ahead of the chains with a rushing attack that ranks in the top 20 in yards before contact, going up against a defense that ranks among the 10 worst in the country in that department.

Additionally, Temple should benefit from having already played a service academy in Navy earlier this season. The Owls led that game by seven with under a minute to go and lost due to a missed call on Navy's game-winning two-point conversion.

That experience will undoubtedly help against a much less potent Army offense.

The defensive injuries are certainly still a concern for the Owls (as is potential turnover regression for a team that sits at +11 on the season), but I'm closer to 5 on this number, so I'll make Army beat me by more than a touchdown.

I fully expect K.C. Keeler (one of the nation's most underrated coaches) to have his guys ready to go after last week's debacle, especially in what potentially sets up as the best remaining chance for the Owls to clinch bowl eligibility, which would be massive for a program that hasn't won more than three games since 2019.

Pick: Temple +7 or Better

Mississippi State +7.5 vs. Georgia

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

The market doesn't like this one with Georgia taking money as the week progresses, but I really just wanted over a touchdown in the battle of the Bulldogs.

I do believe Mississippi State can keep this close, but as usual, I'll look to come in on Georgia live if Kirby Smart's bunch falls behind early. That has certainly been the case in almost every SEC game that Georgia has played this season.

After two wins to open the season over lowly Marshall and Austin Peay, UGA has faced six SEC foes that have outscored the Dawgs, 52-31, in the first quarter.

And if you remove the Kentucky game, Georgia has trailed at the end of the first quarter in each of its other five league games by a cumulative score of 52-17.

Almost every Georgia SEC game has followed the same script. It falls behind early, then Kirby does his thing as the best in-game adjuster in the sport, which helps lead his team to a come-from-behind victory.

To wit, Georgia has outscored those six opponents, 48-23, in the fourth quarter and overtime — almost a complete 180 to its first quarter differential.

I would be remiss if I didn't mention some of the calls Georgia has benefited from in SEC play.

Auburn should've led, 17-0, if not for a botched touchdown call followed by a number of other bogus penalties on the Tigers, which led to the head official getting indefinitely suspended.

We saw the same thing last week against Florida with a pair of game-changing calls breaking Georgia's way. It easily could've lost both of those games in addition to the overtime victory over Tennessee after the Vols missed the game-winning field goal attempt at the end of regulation. They were also on the ropes against Ole Miss until a late flurry.

This is just not your older brother's elite Georgia team, especially on defense.

Look no further than that aforementioned matchup with Tennessee. Historically, Josh Heupel's offenses get completely stuffed into a locker by Smart. Well, not this year, and Mississippi State runs a similar scheme under Jeff Lebby.

Georgia's pass rush is almost nonexistent, ranking outside the top 100 in both Pressure Rate and Sack EPA. I never thought I'd see a Georgia defense that ranks third-worst in the country in Sack Rate — ahead of only Air Force and Georgia Southern.

That will be a welcome relief for a Mississippi State offensive line that can really struggle in pass protection.

Mississippi State comes into this game with five wins, but it could easily have two or three more.

Even with a top-15 strength of schedule, the Bulldogs have been extremely competitive against every single opponent outside of a trip to College Station in a tough situational spot, but even that game was just 7-3 late in the third quarter.

They've lost two games in overtime to Tennessee (thanks to a defensive touchdown) and Texas after holding leads in the fourth quarter. Plus, they threw an inexplicable last-minute interception in field-goal range in a two-point loss at Florida.

This is a real SEC team that can play with any team in the league.

Lastly, it's a potentially tricky situational spot for Georgia after an emotional rivalry win over Florida that took all 40 minutes, with a home game against Texas on deck.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State has a shot to clinch bowl eligibility, which would mark a massive step forward for a program that won two games in 2024. The Cowbells should be rocking in StarkVegas.

Until I see otherwise, I'll fade a Georgia team that I believe remains overvalued in the market as a favorite and look to back it live, especially against a team that has blown its fair share of leads this season.

Pick: Mississippi State +7.5 or Better

Boston College +11.5 vs. SMU

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ACC Network

This is a brutal spot for SMU. After three straight hard-fought games, the Mustangs have to travel up north for an early kick following one of the biggest home wins this century in overtime against Miami.

We already saw this team come out completely flat in a similar spot at Wake Forest after an upset win over Clemson.

I wouldn't be surprised if it comes out a bit lethargic for its sixth game in six weeks with a much-needed bye on deck to get healthier.

Plus, SMU hasn't looked right for most of the season. In fact, the Mustangs have been outgained on the season despite owning a 6-3 record.

In back-to-back home games against lowly Syracuse (with a since-benched quarterback) and Stanford, SMU got outgained by three yards in total. It has really benefited from a nation-leading +2.4 takeaways per game, which likely isn't sustainable.

Even last week's victory over Miami likely had more to do with the undisciplined play of the Hurricanes, who committed a dead-ball personal foul on fourth-and-8 in the final minutes to keep the Mustangs alive.

I'm not sure quarterback Kevin Jennings is fully healthy, and the run game has been pretty abysmal after the offseason departure of Brashard Smith. While the run defense remains stout, the Mustangs can be attacked through the air.

I also believe Boston College is a bit undervalued in the market in large part due to health. The Eagles had one of the most injury-ravaged rosters in the entire country over the first half of the season, which led to predictably disastrous results.

However, they have since gotten much healthier, which has led to much more respectable results of late.

Over the past two weeks, against a pair of potential CFP participants in Notre Dame and Louisville, BC trailed by only one possession in the fourth quarter.

At 1-8, there's always risk BC checks out, but I didn't see that last week following a tough loss vs. Louisville to end its bowl hopes.

And I certainly don't expect that this week in the Red Bandana game — one of my favorite recent college football traditions. RIP to the legendary Welles Crowther.

Pick: Boston College +11.5 (Play to +10.5)

Penn State +14.5 vs. Indiana

12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

Yes, I'm fading Curt Cignetti for a second time this season. You might call me an idiot for doing so, and you'd be correct.

However, in 20-plus years of betting, I've never been afraid to back bad teams or fade good ones, so I'm certainly not going to start now.

This is essentially a numbers play, since I can't get over 13 even after adjusting Indiana up (again) and the Nittany Lions down (again) following last week's results.

Plus, we literally just saw Ohio State close as a 17-point favorite at home against Penn State. There are at least seven points in the home-field advantage swing from Columbus to Happy Valley, which would imply the Buckeyes would have closed around a 10-point road favorite last week.

Now, Indiana is laying over two touchdowns? I can't get there.

While I do have Indiana power-rated as the second-best team in the country (by more than a field goal), I still project the Hoosiers as more than a field-goal underdog on a neutral field against Ohio State.

For what it's worth, that's in line with the lookahead spread for the potential Big Ten Championship matchup between those two teams, with Ohio State recently opening as a 3.5-point favorite.

Additionally, Indiana comes into this matchup a bit beat up. It will likely be without stud left guard Drew Evans and future NFL wide receiver Elijah Sarratt may have to sit out with a hamstring issue.

I do expect star linebacker Aiden Fisher to suit up, but there's a chance he can't go as well.

It's hard to have much faith in Penn State at the moment, but this game essentially becomes its Super Bowl in what has become a lost season. I still at least saw fight from the Nittany Lions last week in the Shoe.

Plus, I did think new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer improved a bit in terms of pocket presence. Has any freshman quarterback ever started off their collegiate career with a worse set of circumstances in a pair of road starts against Iowa and Ohio State?

It doesn't get much easier this week against the swarming Hoosiers defense, but it's fair to assume Grunk will continue to improve with more reps and should at least be a bit more comfortable at home.

Unlike Maryland last week, Penn State also has some semblance of a rushing attack, which is important for a large pup against a superior opponent.

The defense also still has an abundance of talent, even if it hasn't lived up to expectations (is Tony Rojas that important?).

Maybe Cignetti runs this up late again, and maybe they want to pad Mendoza's stats for the Hesiman at all costs. It's certainly possible I'm still underestimating the Hoosiers, but I'm going to trust my numbers and the spot.

It also wouldn't hurt to get a little bit of turnover regression for the Hoosiers, who currently lead the country in turnover margin per game.

Pick: Penn State +14.5 or Better

UTEP +1 vs. Jacksonville State

3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

In my opinion, UTEP is one of the most undervalued G5 teams at the moment. For starters, the Miners boast one of the top non-P4 defenses in the country. Adjusted for opponent, only San Diego State has a better EPA Per Play than UTEP.

The problem for UTEP has been the offense, which has been absolutely dreadful for most of the season.

However, I do think that side of the ball is trending up after the Miners moved on from Malachi Nelson, the worst statistical quarterback in the country.

Just take a look at the difference between Nelson (a walking pick-six) and new starter Skyler Locklear:

• Nelson: 54% completion rate, 8.9 aDOT, 5.9% turnover-worthy play rate, 66.8 Rating
• Locklear: 60% completion rate, 10.1 aDOT, 3.7% turnover-worthy play rate, 80.3 Rating

In its most recent game prior to the bye week with Locklear at the helm, UTEP likely should have beaten Kennesaw State (one of the two best teams in the conference, along with WKU) if not for some criminal officiating and 16 non-offensive points surrendered in the first half (the only points it allowed over the first 30 minutes)

Meanwhile, this is a prime opportunity to sell high on the Gamecocks, who might also get caught peaking ahead to a showdown with Kennesaw State next week in a battle of undefeated teams in league play for first place in Conference USA.

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TCU transfer running back Cam Cook has been a revelation for Jacksonville State, but we do need to pump the brakes a bit on a team that has the following five wins across one of the nation's easiest schedules to date:

• Murray State
• Liberty, when the Flames were a mess but still finished with a 534-390 yardage edge
• Middle Tennessee by 3 (trailed multiple times in the fourth quarter)
• Sam Houston by 2 on a walk-off 52-yard field goal (also trailed going into the fourth)
• A reeling Delaware team by 13

Delaware essentially gifted the Gamecocks an early 21-0 lead with a pair of short fields and a defensive touchdown. The Blue Hens still finished with 68 more net yards but couldn't overcome a 1-for-5 performance on fourth downs and a -2 turnover margin.

It's worth noting that even with a slightly more difficult schedule, UTEP still has a superior net yards per play edge on the year.

I do expect a fully focused effort from the Miners, who still have an outside shot of bowl eligibility with a very easy remaining schedule. Their defense can contain Cook, who's the entire Jacksonville State offense.

Jax State also has a very limited passing attack with new signal-caller Caden Creel, who has no Big-Time Throws and three Turnover-Worthy Plays since taking over under center.

Locklear can do enough on offense against a suspect Jacksonville State defense to get the job done. And if there's any team in the country that's due for a few bounces (-8 turnover margin) or calls, it's the Miners.

Pick: UTEP +1 or Better

Iowa +6 vs. Oregon

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS

This boils down to whether or not you believe Oregon is super elite (top-five). If you do hold that sentiment, you may like the Ducks here at under a touchdown, as I'm sure some do. However, I'm not in that camp and project this closer to 4.

I still maintain that the Ducks are a year away and still need to see Dante Moore prove he can get the job done on a down-to-down basis against an elite defense.

Whenever this Oregon offense has faced a defense with a pulse, it's looked rather pedestrian. Keep in mind that both of these teams hosted Indiana. Oregon was not in a position to pull off the upset, while Iowa was.

We all thought Moore had arrived in Happy Valley earlier this season, but that turned out to be more about Penn State than anything else. In fact, scoring only 17 points in regulation was kind of disappointing, looking back at it.

Now, he'll go up against a top-five defense that won't allow any explosives and sits top-two in that department almost every season. That will force Moore to stay patient and methodically work the ball down the field without making any key mistakes against Iowa's zone-heavy defense.

There are some other factors working in Iowa's favor, including the weather. It's going to be cold and windy with some serious potential precipitation. That certainly favors the Hawkeyes' style of play.

Under transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski, Iowa continues to improve on a weekly basis offensively, but it remains very limited through the air.

However, the Hawkeyes can certainly run the ball behind an outstanding offensive line, which is the exact route you want to take against an Oregon defense that just isn't creating many negative plays.

Lastly, Iowa will also have a major special teams edge. To nobody's surprise, Kirk Ferentz once again has the best special teams in the nation. Never sleep on the third phase in an Iowa game. It could ultimately decide this Big Ten showdown.

Pick: Iowa +6 or Better

UConn +10.5 vs. Duke

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network

Here's a fun trivia question. Name the only five teams that haven't lost a game in regulation in 2025.

If you said UConn as one of those five, you'd be correct (along with Louisville, Indiana, Ohio State and Texas A&M). The Huskies have three losses on the season, but all three came in overtime.

They've been much friskier than I had anticipated coming into the season after some of the losses they suffered on both sides of the ball.

It's just a very well-coached team under Jim Mora and Matt Brock, one of the most unheralded defensive coordinators in the country.

Led by quarterback Joseph Fagnano (who has 25 touchdowns and no interceptions!), this UConn offense should find success against a struggling (and shorthanded) Duke secondary that ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed.

Adjusting for opponent, the Blue Devils defense rates as a bottom-10 P4 unit overall.

Duke can get pressure under Manny Diaz as usual, but UConn's offensive line has done an outstanding job in pass protection with the fifth-lowest pressure rate allowed.

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Fagnano has also done a fantastic job in limiting negative plays.

The Blue Devils are a really poor tackling team as well, which has caused major issues after the catch. The Huskies are perfectly suited to take full advantage.

The Duke offense will certainly put up its fair share of points. Quarterback Darian Mensah, whose 25:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn't too shabby either, has had a fantastic first season in Durham.

However, the UConn defense has been much stronger against the pass. The Huskies can generate pressure and mix up coverages extremely well on the back end to confuse opposing signal-callers.

The run defense is pretty porous (especially against mobile quarterbacks), but Mensah doesn't really run in a very pass-heavy offense.

Most importantly, this is just an atrocious situational spot for Duke. How focused will it be to travel up north for a November nonconference game following a last-second, miraculous (7% post-game win expectancy) road win over Clemson?

The Blue Devils also host Virginia next week in a game that will likely determine their ACC title chances. As a result, this game really doesn't mean much.

Staying healthy and escaping with a win would certainly suffice for Diaz and company, but don't sleep on the Huskies having a shot to pull off this upset. They did go down to Durham last year and played Duke super close in a 26-21 loss.

Pick: UConn +10.5 or Better

Wake Forest +7 at Virginia

7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

For starters, on the season, Wake has played the slightly more difficult schedule and has a superior net yards per play mark (+0.5 to +0.4). Why? It's the defense, which ranks as a top-10 unit when adjusting for opponent.

Last week, the Demon Deacons had a disappointing effort in Tallahassee, but I think a lot of that had to do with a poor matchup in addition to a vicious situational spot where I happily faded them.

I'm happy to buy low here at a touchdown or better against a completely fraudulent Virginia team that somehow has eight wins on the season, but in all reality, should have the same number as Wake (5).

The Hoos' first three wins of the season came against Stanford, William & Mary and a brand-new Coastal Carolina club. Take a look at their past five victories since taking on real competition:

• Louisville by 3 in OT thanks to two defensive touchdowns (outgained, 383-237)
• Florida State in double overtime (outgained, 514-440)
• North Carolina by 1 in OT (outgained, 353-259)
• Washington State by 2 on a last-second safety (outgained, 318-301)
• Cal by 10 (last-second pick-six to win by margin and cover)

They could easily have gone 1-4 in that stretch with four of the five games going to overtime despite a +8 turnover margin. They deserved the Cal win but should have only won by a field goal.

Despite sitting all alone in first place in the ACC, I don't even have Virginia power-rated as a top-50 team in the country.

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While the Wake Forest offense is nothing to write home about, it should have some success running the ball on early downs this week, which is paramount for it to have any shot at sustaining drives.

The red-zone offense is downright dreadful, which is definitely a concern, but the Hoos have been very vulnerable in short-yardage and goal-line situations on defense.

They also struggle to contain opposing mobile quarterbacks, which could be an issue in this matchup.

Wake has a terribly inefficient passing attack that will make you want to pull your hair out while watching, but it can hit explosives (top-10 in that department), which is an area where teams can exploit Virginia's defense.

Most importantly, UVA just hasn't proven it can get margin on any team with even a faint pulse.

With Duke on deck in a game that will likely determine who goes to the ACC Championship, it's also possible the Hoos come into this one with a bit of a lack of focus to boot.

Regardless, the offense has been solved for the most part, and the defense isn't anything special.

Wake will have the best unit on the field with its defense. I just don't see much separating these teams outside of their records, so I'm happy to take a touchdown on the road against a Virginia team traveling back across the country.

Pick: Wake Forest +7 or Better

LSU +10.5 at Alabama

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

This is a smaller play here, as it looks like star LSU linebacker Whit Weeks won't suit up even after the bye week.

That's a big loss, but I still think this line is a bit too high, so I'm happy to buy low on the Tigers, who should benefit from the temporary interim coach bump we usually see for one week.

Don't be shocked if we even see some packages for backup quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. in addition to some other new wrinkles that Alabama won't have on film.

I also think there could be some renewed energy in the locker room, as I get the sense Brian Kelly wasn't the most likable head coach among the players.

Additionally, the Alabama defense isn't generating elite pressure. Similar to Georgia, this isn't your older brother's Alabama front seven.

That will provide a lot of relief for a struggling LSU offensive line, which usually causes its downfall against SEC competition.

The Tigers may also find some semblance of balance with something on the ground against a Tide defense that ranks outside the top 100 in yards allowed before contact. I like this for many of the same reasons I fancied South Carolina to keep it close.

LSU still has an elite defense that won't have to worry too much about Alabama's ground game. That will allow it to pin its ears back on passing downs, where it should generate plenty of pressure against Ty Simpson, who will take his fair share of sacks.

Ultimately, you should get LSU's best effort here in what now becomes its Super Bowl.

I also just think this Alabama team is a bit overrated. Yes, it won four straight against ranked opponents, but the Tide also got blown out at Florida State and arguably should have lost at South Carolina.

Even against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee, it's not like they completely dominated on the field, also benefiting from a +9 turnover margin.

I believe a much fairer price for this game would be around Alabama -8.5, so I was happy to take double digits with the road 'dog under a new regime.

Pick: LSU +10.5 or Better

Kentucky +3.5 vs. Florida

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

Will Florida show up here after an all-out effort against Georgia that saw the Gators come up just short?

I'm not sure we'll get a fully focused effort from the Gators, who unloaded the clip in a rivalry game last week with games against Ole Miss, Florida State and Tennessee on deck. Talk about a potentially sleepy spot.

Additionally, Florida will lose the temporary bump from a new coach, which usually only lasts one week. All of the new wrinkles it showed are also now on tape.

Plus, it's not like DJ Lagway looked great coming out of the bye with some of the offensive changes. I was expecting a much sharper effort. It may just be a lost season for the talented Lagway.

It's also worth mentioning that Florida will come into Lexington with an extremely shorthanded roster.

I thought wide receiver Eugene Wilson III (who was all the rage during the bye) benefited the most from the new-look offense. He finished with over 100 receiving yards, but he will miss this game due to injury.

The same is true for stud five-star freshman wideout Dallas Wilson.

With the statuses of Aidan Mizell and Vernell Brown III also in doubt, the Gators could be completely decimated on the outside, which will make life much easier for a Kentucky defense that's much stronger against the run (top-20 adjusted run defense among all P4 teams).

Kentucky's offense also has more juice since making a quarterback change and going with Cutter Boley, who has looked better following Kentucky's bye week.

Boley won't have to worry about much pressure against Florida (118th in pressure rate), and the entire offense is predicated on generating yards after the catch, which is the exact way teams want to attack this very stingy Florida defense.

The 'Cats have been playing with a lot of confidence over the past month. They should have beaten Texas at home and just pulled off an upset on the road against Auburn.

I'm not worried about their care level at home against a rival. Ultimately, adjusting for the spot and injuries, I don't think this line should be over a field goal.

Pick: Kentucky +3.5 or Better

UCLA -2.5 vs. Nebraska

9 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

This is one of the best situational spots on the board for a variety of reasons. Let's start with why it's a tough spot for Nebraska.

The Huskers have to travel a couple of time zones west after a devastating loss to USC that ended their College Football Playoff hopes.

They also lost starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to a long-term injury, which will force freshman TJ Lateef into action in his first-ever start.

Based on what I saw last week, it's a steep drop-off to the tune of maybe a touchdown or more, especially with some of the injury issues Nebraska is also dealing with at offensive tackle.

Without having to worry about Nebraska throwing as much, UCLA can load the box to help out its run defense, which will put all of the onus on the freshman, who I'll make prove he can find enough success to pull out a road win in his first start.

On the UCLA side of things, the Bruins will benefit from coming off a bye, which I believe holds more value with a brand-new staff that took over after a disastrous start to the season.

I expect some even more wrinkles after defenses adjusted to some of the original changes they implemented with great success in their first few games following the changes.

Keep in mind this is also Nebraska's sixth game in six weeks.

Plus, UCLA should find success on the ground against a shaky Nebraska run defense that ranks in the bottom five among all P4 teams after adjusting for opponent. On the season, the Huskers rank outside the top 100 in both yards before and after contact.

They also don't generate much pressure and really struggle to contain mobile quarterbacks, which means Nico Iamaleava's legs could become a major factor to keep the chains moving.

Even with Raiola at the controls, it's not like Nebraska has traveled well this season. The Huskers have only played two previous true road games, which included a blowout loss at Minnesota and a three-point comeback victory over Maryland.

I like UCLA at anything under a field goal.

Pick: UCLA -2.5 or Better

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