Week 11 of the college football season has arrived. That means it's time to take a look at the odds board and see what kind of value we can find before lines move this week.
After cashing his Week 10 early bet when Liberty dominated Delaware, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson has turned his attention to a nonconference game between Duke and UConn on Saturday, Nov. 8.
Let's dive into Wilson's college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Duke vs. UConn in Week 11 below.
Duke vs UConn Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | -315 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 65.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
A narrow win and a Georgia Tech loss in Week 10 brought Duke closer to the ACC Championship game.
The Blue Devils outlasted Clemson in a 91-point game, as quarterback Darian Mensah threw for 361 yards and four touchdowns.
Head coach Manny Diaz will now have his conference title hopes pinned on a Week 12 game against the only undefeated team in ACC play, the Virginia Cavaliers.
Before Duke can focus on a conference championship run, a trip to Rentschler Field in East Hartford is on deck.
UConn has qualified for a bowl as an independent after beating UAB by three scores. The Huskies will now look to improve their postseason position with a signature win over the Blue Devils.
Quarterback Joe Fagnano has been red-hot in his seventh season of college football and his third consecutive with UConn.
The former Maine quarterback has played at an elite level, passing for 22 touchdowns without a single interception, while ranking as the seventh-most accurate signal-caller in on-target rate, per Sports Info Solutions.
In more than 500 passing attempts through three seasons with the Huskies, Fagnano has thrown a total of five picks.
Duke will have issues with the aerial attack, coming into this game ranked 127th in Passing Success Rate allowed. UConn also boasts the top overall offense in Havoc allowed, a key element against an aggressive Duke defense.
The one area to attack UConn is through the run game, as the Huskies sit bottom-25 in Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards against the rush.
However, Duke has been poor at running the ball, falling outside the top 85 of all FBS teams in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The bigger issue for the Blue Devils is the drop-off when teams get to scoring position, ranking second-to-last in Finishing Drives allowed. In 42 opponent possessions that have crossed the 40-yard line, the Blue Devils defense has given up an average of 4.7 points.
Pick: UConn +8 or Better
