College Football PRO Report: Sharp Action, Power Ratings Edges, Expert Betting Picks for Week 2 (Saturday, Sept. 12)
Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Carpenter
With the introduction of the ACC and Big 12 to the 2020 college football scene, Saturday’s slate has bit more of the traditional feel to it than what we were presented with a week ago.
It’s also offering quite a few more games, which means there’s sure to be some matchups lighting up our new PRO Report feature.
Here are a few that have landed sharp action, betting system matches, model-projection edges and picks from our college football experts:
- Duke vs. Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. ET)
- UTSA vs. Texas State (3:30 p.m. ET)
- Coastal Carolina vs. Kansas (10 p.m. ET)
You can check out the full PRO Report for every Week 2 game here.
Note: Screenshots as of Friday at 5 p.m. ET.
Duke vs. Notre Dame Odds, PRO Report
While a slight majority of bettors (54%, to be exact) have taken the over, this total has dropped a bit from its opener, and considerably from its high-water mark in the mid- to upper-50s.
Per our PRO Report, big bets from sharps have been a major factor in the move.
Any time the line moves away from the popular side, you can feel pretty confident — all else equal — that sharps probably have something to do with it.
In this case, Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action — have triggered six moves on the under, the three most recent of which came at 54.5.
Sharp Action edge: Under
The 46% of bets on the under have accounted for 66% of money, meaning bigger bets are landing on the under. And while big bets can certainly come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from sharps over a big sample, so such a discrepancy serves as another hint toward the sharp side.
Big Money edge: Under
As for our top college football experts, four have picked the under in this game. You can follow all our experts’ picks in The Action Network App.
Top Experts edge: Under
UTSA vs. Texas State Odds, PRO Report
Another total that’s moved from its opener, and another wave of sharp action causing the move. In this matchup, though, there’s a PRO betting system aligned with the sharp action presenting some additional value.
Bettors are pretty much split down the middle on this total, with the over receiving a slight majority (52%) of tickets at the time of writing. So with there being an uptick in the total, you can reasonably guess which side has drawn more sharp action.
Six SI Bet Signals have been triggered on the over, confirming pros to be behind the move. It is worth noting, though, that this number has been bought back from its highest point. The most recent Bet Signal came on the under at 58.5.
Sharp Action edge: Over
The over’s edge in betting tickets may be slim, but that 52% of bettors has certainly consisted of the bigger spenders — the ones more likely to be sharps — as 84% of actual money is behind the over.
Big Money edge: Over
Whether or not it’s the reason for the pro backing of the over, the forecast in San Marcos is setting up to make this game a match for one of our PRO Systems.
Since 2005, non-conference games played in temperatures of 85 degrees or more (with no more than 10 mph winds) have hit the over at a 58.3% clip (278-199-7), winning 59.5 units for a 12.3% return on investment.
Saturday’s forecast is calling for temps between 87 and 90 degrees over the span of the game.
PRO Systems edge: Over
Coastal Carolina vs. Kansas Odds, PRO Report
How’d you like to get a team that should be favored at a plus-touchdown price? The Model Projections indicator for this matchup suggests that that opportunity could be a reality.
You may have noticed in the screenshot above that this line has moved quite a bit from its opener. Kansas is up to a touchdown favorite after opening just higher than a field goal. And sharps have been behind that move.
Three SI Bet Signals have been triggered on Kansas at lines of -3, -4.5 and -6, getting us to this point. At the new number, though, it’s been a slightly different story, as the following indicators will show…
Sharp Action edge: Kansas
For the reason presented in the first game on this list, the Sharp Action and Big Money indicators will often match up. In games with significant line movement, however, where big, sharp bettors might be taking different sides at different lines, they can certainly differ.
Coastal Carolina’s 51% backing has generated 78% of the money hitting the spread in this one.
Big Money edge: Coastal Carolina
Here’s where it gets really juicy. Perhaps because Kansas is a more well-known school — even if its football program may not be the reason — it’s assumed that the Jayhawks will be able to take care of a team that went 2-6 in the Sun Belt last season.
Our power ratings — compiled by Collin Wilson — suggest otherwise.
They’ve got Coastal as a 3.5-point favorite, giving plenty of value to this plus-points spread.
Model Projections edge: Coastal Carolina
Once again, our best college football minds are in agreement. Three of our experts are taking the points with the Chanticleers.
Top Experts edge: Coastal Carolina