It just means more.
That has been the SEC's slogan for years, and now the conference has a chance to prove it.
An SEC team hasn't won the College Football Playoff National Championship since Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs went back-to-back in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
But this year, there are a number of contenders from the SEC looking to get back to the mountaintop.
Action Network expert Collin Wilson jumped in to preview the SEC and dish out his top win totals and futures for the new season in the south.
With that, let's dive into our 2025 SEC Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 SEC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Texas | +270 |
| Georgia | +330 |
| Alabama | +380 |
| LSU | +700 |
| Texas A&M | +1500 |
| Ole Miss | +1600 |
| Florida | +1800 |
| Tennessee | +2500 |
| South Carolina | +2500 |
| Oklahoma | +2800 |
| Auburn | +2800 |
| Missouri | +6000 |
| Arkansas | +15000 |
| Vanderbilt | +20000 |
| Kentucky | +25000 |
| Mississippi State | +50000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Wednesday, Aug. 13.
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Right off the bat, I'm betting on Georgia to go under 9.5 wins. The odds for them to miss the College Football Playoff are hovering around +200, so you’re basically wagering on a nine-win season.
Now, the offense with Mike Bobo running the show and a running quarterback is an interesting mix. If Gunner Stockton goes down, the backup likely won’t cause a massive drop-off, which says something.
I also find it interesting that Georgia didn’t chase a new QB from the transfer portal after Carson Beck left. Stockton never really took over Beck’s role, which makes you wonder what they’ve been holding back all this time.
Stockton struggled under pressure during his time on the field, and even though he has been praised for sensing pressure, it’s yet to be seen how he’ll handle it this season.
Offensively, the line returns with 35 starts, but this unit was disappointing a year ago. They ranked 96th in Line Yards, and running back Nate Frazier averaged a disappointing 2.8 yards after first contact. That’s uncharacteristic for a Georgia running back.
On the bright side, guys like Zachariah Branch from USC and Noah Thomas from Texas A&M have the potential to break big plays, but I’m skeptical whether the QBs can get the ball to those key offensive weapons consistently.
Looking over to defense, head coach Kirby Smart called KJ Bolden the most crucial player for 2024. As a true freshman last year, Bolden had one interception and one pass breakup, but the pressure is now on.
Georgia’s defense was solid when it came to creating contested catches, finishing 21st in that category. However, the Bulldogs ranked just 67th in Havoc. That’s unusual and a bit of a red flag for a Georgia defense that has been stellar there in the past.
Experience is another concern, and there’s a noticeable drop-off on the defensive line. Plus, both starting linebackers combined for only six starts last year, so that’s a big question mark.
On the plus side, the schedule isn’t brutal. The Bulldogs' strength of schedule ranks 44th nationally, which is manageable.
They’re getting games against Marshall, Austin Peay and Charlotte, but Texas and Alabama come into Athens off bye weeks though, so they'll be fresh when they show up. That always makes things trickier.
The biggest snag might be that tricky Mississippi State game squeezed between the big World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party against Florida and Texas. It’s one of those spots where you could see Georgia slip up.
This isn’t the same team that was cruising to national titles. The coaching staff has changed, the defensive line isn’t the powerhouse it once was, and the quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired.
Georgia’s still good, but the easy path looks behind them.
Pick: Georgia Under 9.5 Wins
When it comes to Texas, there are definitely a few different ways to look at their season.
Starting with the offense, we’ll see Arch Manning take over at quarterback. While he's already the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, he's not exactly a proven player yet.
We’ve seen him run the RPO pretty well, but the question is, has he really shown the kind of passing ability we need to see in those key moments? There have been flashes, but it’s still a bit up in the air.
What Arch does bring is a fresh dimension to Texas’ offense. We’ll see more RPOs and a different style than before. Plus, with Quintrevion Wisner and a healthy CJ Baxter back there, the offensive weapons look solid. Wisner created a 23% missed tackle rate last season, which is pretty impressive.
Add in DeAndre Moore Jr., who racked up 59 targets in the slot, and it becomes clear there aren't really any weak spots in the offensive skill positions.
On the defensive side, it’s a similar story.
Purdue transfer Cole Brevard had 16 pressures from the nose tackle position, which is noteworthy. And while we should step back a bit from last year’s T'vondre Sweat level since that's a special thing to replicate, I’m still a big fan of Trey Moore on the outside edge.
One thing to watch, though, is Anthony Hill Jr. I gave him a hard time last year because while his run defense was outstanding— tops in terms of PFF grades — his pass coverage was shaky, especially in third-and-long situations.
Texas’ schedule isn’t a cakewalk. Its strength of schedule ranks 15th nationally, and it starts with Ohio State in Week 1. Honestly, that opener might decide a lot for its season.
Right now, I’d recommend tossing the win total aside because this game is about the matchup itself.
While the line sits around Ohio State -2.5 right now, I think it might move closer to Ohio State -1 before kick.
I like the Longhorns in the opener simply because there are fewer unknowns on their side from both a coordinator and player perspective.
In college football handicapping, information is king, and I feel like I know what I'm getting with Texas more than I do with Ohio State right now.
When you look at the defensive line, Texas might be stepping down a bit, but Ohio State is really taking a hit on its interior defensive front. If Arch is running those RPOs effectively with two strong backs, that’s a combo I’m all in on.
Looking beyond that opener, the conference schedule is pretty favorable.
Both Texas and Florida get a bye before they face off. After that, the Longhorns face Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas at home. The SEC slate isn’t daunting overall.
Vanderbilt and Arkansas are games they should win, especially at home. When it's all said and done, Texas looks like a team that can make a serious run to the SEC Championship.
Obviously, Georgia is a major obstacle, but with a soft SEC schedule otherwise and the momentum Texas has, I’m not sweating it.
Right now, Texas making the SEC Championship game looks good. As of writing, there’s a +130 on the board at DraftKings and other books, and while I might not take the 'Horns to win the SEC outright, I like that price to reach the championship.
Pick: Texas to Make SEC Championship (+130)
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I hadn't said this anywhere publicly before the podcast, but I feel good about Alabama winning the national title this year. Out of all the top 10 teams, this is the one I feel best about betting on.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack led this unit that put up insane numbers last year. This defense was top-of-the-line, and it has only gotten better.
Now, the offense is where a lot of this team’s magic could happen.
Ryan Grubb stepping in to run DeBoer's offense is a game-changer. It’s like they’re putting the main engine back in gear from the Washington team that made it to the National Championship.
Meanwhile, Nick Sheridan will focus exclusively on the quarterbacks, and that’s huge because they really need that kind of attention. The big question is, can Ty Simpson bring leadership with his program experience?
Then they have Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard at receiver, so good luck to the rest of the conference defending that with pre-snap motion and post-snap trickery. It’s going to be tough to defend.
Now, the wild card here is Keelon Russell. I’ve watched enough tape, and it feels like there’s a secret plan brewing for this guy. I don’t know if he’ll step in against Georgia on Sept. 27 or if they’ll hold him out until Simpson and Mack have had their run.
Maybe he comes alive in the playoff. Whatever it is, there’s definitely a plan and some special package being worked on that we won’t see until it’s absolutely necessary.
If Alabama takes a loss, you can bet I’m doubling down on national title futures for the Crimson Tide. I really like this team because of the Russell factor. Sometimes a player emerges and carries a team over that final hurdle to a championship, and that could be him.
Defensively, things are downright incredible. Last year, the Tide ranked fourth in Finishing Drives Allowed and seventh in Quality Drives Allowed. Opponents struggled just to get into scoring range, and if they did, scoring was a mess.
Alabama limited EPA, ranked in the top 20 for Rushing and Passing Success Rate Allowed and finished second nationally in tackling. That was Wommack’s first shot at working hands-on with this team, and they already finished second in tackling.
When Wommack first stepped up to the Power 4 level, he already had one of the best defensive units out there, and the numbers they put up proved it. This year, Alabama boasts one of the top three defensive units across all levels.
Plus, plenty of players opted to return for another season, including a huge retention in middle linebacker Deontae Lawson.
I’d like to see them create more Havoc after finishing 41st last year in that department. Maybe they’re dialing back blitzes and just letting the defense flow. Either way, they’re cooking and will keep cooking.
Here’s a quick look at Alabama’s schedule concerns: Four SEC teams will have a bye week before facing the Tide: Georgia, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma.
LSU and Oklahoma’s games are back-to-back, with both coming off a bye, which might be a tough test for Bama’s health and depth. I see only one SEC game swinging within a touchdown, and that’s the clash with Georgia.
The floor here is 10 wins this season, with a ceiling of 12. They might lose a game, but with what I consider the strongest defense in the conference, multiple quarterback options, and a reunion with Grubb, this team is a legit national title contender.
When we did the Big Ten podcasts, and I picked Penn State to win it all from that conference, but I had reservations and was worried about semifinal matchup complications. This isn’t a number I’m sweating. I’m not hedging. Out of all the elite teams, Alabama’s the one I believe can take it all this year.
Pick: Alabama to Win National Championship (+1000)
I make this number 8.8, meaning over 8.5 at -150 just isn’t a play I’m taking.
Starting with defense, there are a lot of questions around Harold Perkins.
Will he slide back to outside linebacker, and are we really committed to Whit Weeks in the middle? Weeks is a classic boom-or-bust middle linebacker. He led the team with 82 tackles, but he also missed a whopping 12.9% of his tackles — one of the worst rates on the team.
Those missed tackles alone cost LSU big time against USC, and it might've cost it the game. That said, Weeks did have 56 stops where he made a tackle clean and solo with no help needed.
Weeks hits like a truck, but if LSU’s all in on him at middle linebacker, that means Perkins gets bumped back outside, where he originally thrived. But then, what’s Perkins’ weight going to look like? And how’s his lateral movement going to hold up?
LSU’s defense pivots a lot on those answers. The Tigers need the old, explosive version of Perkins, not the slower inside linebacker version.
In the secondary, LSU brought in two new cornerbacks through the portal, including Mansoor Delane from Virginia Tech. I do like Houston transfer A.J. Haulcy, who broke up eight passes and had five interceptions with the Cougars in a pass-heavy Big 12. He was first-team all-conference, so that’s notable.
But the kicker might be defensive coordinator Blake Baker. LSU ranked 51st in tackling, 81st in coverage and 88th in creating contested catches. Is it fair to keep blaming the constant portal pickups in the secondary? Or should some blame land on Baker for coaching the same issues we saw at Missouri?
He has always had a good pass rush and caused Havoc up front, but the tackling and contested catch numbers on the back end stay rough.
Garrett Nussmeier is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and racked up a 26:18 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
His wide receivers are also the most potent combination in the SEC. Aaron Anderson posted 2.3 yards per route run and Barion Brown recorded 1.9 at Kentucky. Add in Chris Hilton Jr. and Oklahoma's Nic Anderson, and this unit shpould be extremely solid while cleaning up the drop issues from last season.
However, the offensive line loses four starters to the NFL. Josh Thompson can play either guard spot and makes up the entire experience for the trench. Nussmeier will be under pressure, so NFL scouts will have plenty of tape.
Ultimately, LSU’s defense still looks like a work in progress. It needs the explosive version of Perkins back outside, Weeks to keep coming through, and a better handle on the secondary’s consistency.
Otherwise, those missed tackles and contested catches will keep costing them.
Pick: Pass
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I don’t hate Texas A&M.
The portal pickup of wide receiver KC Concepcion from NC State is great. It’s just fun to watch him catch the ball and take off. He was one of the best possession receivers over the middle that not a lot of people really notice, especially if you don’t follow ACC football closely.
If Marcel Reed can make that classic jump from Year 1 to Year 2, where most college QBs get more comfortable under pressure, then Concepcion is going to fit in perfectly.
Running back Le’Veon Moss returns after averaging 4.4 yards after contact. You can really see how much the A&M offense deflated when he got hurt last season, so keeping him healthy has to be a priority.
This could honestly be the best offensive line in the country, anchored by blindside tackle Trey Zuhn III. I don’t have a single complaint about this offense. They just have to stay healthy because things went sideways when they got hurt last season.
But what’s going on with this defense? The Aggies finished 109th in tackling, which is not what you'd expect from a Mike Elko defense. With Elko now handling play-calling duties, it looks like there are fundamentals breaking down and some really rough numbers on that side of the ball.
My win total projection sits just under eight, and I think the schedule is a big reason for that. There are a lot of positives here, but I don’t see them beating Notre Dame, Texas or LSU on the road.
I just don’t see this team hitting nine wins. Seven wins seems a little low, but eight feels like the realistic spot where they’ll land.
I love the pieces, especially with the addition of Concepcion. Still, I think they might be a bit overrated, especially after losing some key defensive linemen. I’m leaning toward taking the under given the defensive problems.
Pick: Texas A&M Under 8.5 Wins
DJ Lagway, Jadan Baugh and Ja'Kobi Jackson form an absolute beast of a trio, especially when you consider the pair of backs combined for 14 rushing touchdowns last season.
Plus, this team boasts one of the best offensive lines in the SEC. For example, Damieon George Jr. was shuffled over to guard at Alabama, where he struggled and earned consistently poor grades. Then he moves to Florida, slides into the guard spot there and suddenly takes off. It’s wild how much of a difference that move has made.
And if you’re keeping an eye out for fresh talent, freshman wide receiver Dallas Wilson is one of the biggest blue-chip recruits any team can ask for.
Now, Lagway threw 12 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a freshman. That looks rough on the surface, but if you dig deeper, his 18: 7 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio shows he has that high-ceiling potential.
This offense can really cook, and it has the ability to hang with or upset anyone on a brutal schedule.
Defensively, this team ranked 35th in Havoc and 14th in Finishing Drives.
But one thing to keep an eye on is Jamari Lyons and the status of his injury recovery. He’s a key piece they’ll need to exploit LSU’s softer offensive line when those teams square off on Sept. 13.
Meanwhile, defensive tackle Caleb Banks might just be the best in the SEC. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 303 pounds, he has the ability to completely dominate offensive linemen.
Now, the schedule is where I have real concerns. They have a bye week before hosting Texas, which will be their first home SEC game, but overall, they only get three home SEC games on the slate.
With that in mind, I’m struggling to see this team notching eight wins. They have the ability to upset anyone — including Georgia in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party and Texas at home — but can they do it consistently across this tough schedule?
Billy Napier deserves credit, though. I admit I held a grudge for years, but after the magic he worked last year, I’m officially on Team Napier. His tempo offense has evolved, and he has made this team competitive.
That said, the injuries piling up make me lean toward the under. I don't want to fade the Gators, but I can't find eight wins on this schedule.
Pick: Florida Under 7.5 Wins
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Austin Simmons steps in as the quarterback this season as a true sophomore with just 32 passing attempts under his belt last year.
Meanwhile, the wide receiver group saw the NIL cash flow, with Harrison Wallace III coming from Penn State and De'Zhaun Stribling coming from Oklahoma State after putting up 2.4 yards per route run.
On the offensive line, Diego Pounds returns at left tackle, while Patrick Kutas transfers in at guard from Arkansas. The rest of the O-line and the running back spots still have a lot of question marks, though.
Over on defense, most of the top-tier defensive line talent that could be had last year is mostly gone. But Suntarine Perkins is back, bringing 10.5 sacks and 3.5 tackles for loss with him, which is a solid anchor.
Beyond Perkins, the defense is loaded with transfers from the portal and a handful of super seniors like safety Sage Ryan from LSU, so experience is somewhat mixed.
The schedule gives Ole Miss some breathing room early on, with five of the first six games at home and eight home games overall.
The SEC road games shouldn’t be as brutal as usual either, with Kentucky and Mississippi State rounding out the toughest trips. The real headache is hosting Tulane sandwiched between Arkansas and LSU, which is definitely a tough spot.
Ole Miss has a bye week before taking on Washington State, but there’s also a big question as to how ready Ole Miss will be for its trip to Georgia right after. It’s shaping up to be a season full of intrigue and some serious “prove it” moments for the Rebels.
I want to target the LSU game here. Ole Miss will be coming off a tough game against Tulane, while LSU has Southeastern Louisiana. It will be a prime opportunity to target the Bayou Bengals.
Pick: LSU ML vs. Ole Miss (Sept. 27)
Quarterback Joey Aguilar has matched every big-time throw with turnover-worthy play (26:25), which is something you don’t always see. Compared to the 2024 version of Nico Iamaleava, Aguilar might actually be an upgrade.
Now, Nico had one of the highest pressure-to-sack ratios nationally, showing he couldn't handle a heavy pass rush. However, Aguilar brings a bit more escape ability, which could pay off in a big way for the Vols.
The wide receiver group is about as unproven as it’s been in a while for head coach Josh Heupel's stretch spread offense.
They’re rolling with a committee look when trying to replace Dylan Sampson, and Peyton Lewis is the only back coming in with high recruiting rankings.
The offensive line doesn’t inspire much confidence either. There aren't any seniors on the depth chart, and there are fewer than 50 combined starts all around. Aguilar’s turnover-worthy plays jumped all the way up to 7% with a pressured pocket, so that's a concern.
Defense will be the calling card here, especially the back seven.
Outside linebacker Arion Carter leads the charge with six pass breakups, but it’s cornerback Jermod McCoy who really stands out with nine PBUs.
The defensive line is loaded with seniors, spearheaded by Joshua Josephs, who racked up nine tackles for loss — a big reason the defensive front looks sturdy.
Looking at the schedule, there are eight home games, but bye weeks come at key moments right before Arkansas and New Mexico State. Arkansas itself will be coming off a bye on Oct. 11.
Early on, this team is set to be at least a two-touchdown favorite in five of the first six games. Overall, the Vols should be favorites of at least two touchdowns in seven games.
I'm also going to target them in Week 1 because Syracuse only has receivers, but Tennessee should be able to keep up.
Pick: Tennessee Over 8.5 Wins · Tennessee -13.5 vs. Syracuse (Aug. 30)
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LaNorris Sellers definitely benefited last year with Rocket Sanders in the RPO game, but now there are two running backs — Rahsul Faison from Utah State and Oscar Adaway III stepping up to fill those shoes. Neither is over 6-feet tall or weighs more than 220 pounds.
However, both tackles started at least a dozen games last season, so expect a similar kind of push in the zone read and outside zone RPO packages.
Sellers recorded more turnover-worthy plays than bug-time throws last season and posted a turnover-worthy play rate of 8.7% in a crowded pocket.
Defensively, the Gamecocks lose their top five tacklers from last year, but there's still some chaos brewing in the secondary. Judge Collier and Jalon Kilgore combined for 13 passes broken up last season, and edge rusher Dylan Stewart’s 6.5 sacks will keep the defense disruptive.
Both bye weeks come before tough SEC road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, which is some good timing. Columbia sees three tough visitors on back-to-back travel as well: Vanderbilt, Oklahoma and Coastal Carolina.
Kentucky is the only team facing South Carolina coming off a bye.
Depth is definitely going to get tested with four consecutive heavyweight matchups against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama and Ole Miss right in a row.
This team could go from being a favorite in the first five games to an underdog down the stretch. Six of the last seven games come against teams ranked in the Preseason AP Top 25, including a nonconference game against Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl.
Pick: South Carolina Under 7.5 Wins
Jackson Arnold should be a much better quarterback than Payton Thorne, especially considering the talent he has to throw to in the receiver room.
Alongside Cam Coleman, Auburn brought in Georgia Tech's Eric Singleton, who had 2.2 yards per route run last year, and Horatio Fields from Wake Forest.
Plus, Durell Robinson transfers in from UConn to help fill the void left by Jarquez Hunter in the running back room.
The offensive line might be one of the best in the SEC, too, boasting 140 starts while being led by experienced upperclassmen. Arnold should be able to operate with a clean pocket and target what looks like the best overall receiving group in the league.
Last year, he had a pressure-to-sack ratio of 27% over 132 pressures, so the raised ability of the line will be well received from the quarterback.
On the defensive side, coordinator DJ Durkin’s linebackers are a bit light on experience, but the secondary looks promising in creating contested catches.
Cornerback Kayin Lee returns with seven pass breakups, and Raion Strader could lock down the other cornerback spot after totaling 29 PBUs at Miami (OH) over the past two years.
Now, looking at Auburn's schedule, it opens with Baylor in Week 1. Well, the Bears' secondary seems to be their biggest weak spot coming into the season, which is why I’m leaning toward the Tigers here.
I originally wanted Auburn +1.5, but that line has moved to -2 or -2.5 as we speak. If you’re looking for a moneyline play, Baylor’s secondary issues give Arnold a considerable edge, especially with his top-notch receivers.
Pick: Auburn ML vs. Baylor (Aug. 29) · Auburn Over 7.5 Wins
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No team looks like it could benefit more from some injury regression than the Sooners this season. They've been hammered at wide receiver and running back, and a set of five offensive linemen all went down midway through the year.
Their quarterback situation hasn’t been great either, as Jackson Arnold got benched in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. Enter John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle to shake things up.
On the offensive side, there's hope building. Cal running back Jaydn Ott has racked up over 3,400 all-purpose yards in his three years, bringing a versatile weapon to the table.
Then, OU has Deion Burks, who was projected to be a blazer a year ago after coming out of Purdue. Adding Arkansas’ Isaiah Sategna to the mix helps, too, especially since he ironed out some drop issues last season.
Defensively, R Mason Thomas is back and ready to cause chaos after nearly a dozen sacks and tackles for loss last year.
The depth on the defensive line is all about stopping the run — Phil Steele even ranks this unit as the top defensive line and linebacker group in the country despite the loss of Danny Stutsman.
Brent Venables is stepping back to focus solely on defense. Whether that was his call or mandated by the athletic director is unknown, but Arbuckle having full control of the offense, combined with this experienced defense, makes the Sooners a tempting pick at 30-1.
Looking ahead, Temple could be a solid play on Sept. 13 after the Sooners have to go head-to-head with Michigan in a big nonconference game.
The SEC schedule features only three true road games in South Carolina, Tennessee and Alabama. Expect the Sooners to be slight favorites at home in games against Auburn, Ole Miss (back-to-back travel) and Missouri.
With the upside on both sides of the ball, I see Oklahoma taking a step forward this season.
Pick: Oklahoma Over 6.5 Wins
Running back Ahmad Hardy comes over from ULM and has shown some real promise with an average of 4.3 yards after first contact and over 1,000 yards rushing after initial hits.
On the quarterback front, Penn State transfer Beau Pribula stepped up well for Drew Allar against Wisconsin last season. He posted a solid 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with zero turnover-worthy plays on 35 attempts with the Nittany Lions.
The big question now is whether head coach Eli Drinkwitz will let Pribula run the ball as much as he did in Happy Valley when he racked up over 200 yards on designed runs.
Drinkwitz also added Mississippi State slot receiver Kevin Coleman Jr., who averaged 2.3 yards per route run, so he gives Pribula another weapon as he gets his feet wet in Columbia.
The offensive line has some serious potential, especially up the middle with two NFL prospects ready to carve out lanes for inside zone runs. But Missouri’s left tackle spot will be an area to watch, given the lack of experience there.
Defensively, coordinator Corey Batoon is back with one of the more experienced units around and adds Big 12 Freshman of the Year Josiah Trotter from West Virginia.
However, pass coverage was a concern last year, as the Tigers ranked outside the top 75 in PFF coverage grade and Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Luckily for them, safety Jalen Catalon arrives to bolster that secondary after stops at Arkansas, Texas and UNLV.
Looking at the bigger picture, Missouri’s offense might struggle due to all the fresh faces, especially against stifling front sevens like those of Oklahoma, Alabama, Texas A&M and Auburn. These teams are tough to run zone read against, putting extra pressure on the Tigers' offense to find rhythm.
For what it's worth, the game against UMass on Sept. 27 could be a solid spot to back the Minutemen. Missouri will be coming off a tough game against South Carolina, while UMass has a bye week to get prepared for the new-look Tigers offense.
Pick: Missouri Under 7.5 Wins
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I’ve got my projection set right on five, with the juice sitting right there and the under at five and a half—exactly where I’d put it.
Now, the Trent Hudson addition might be flying under the radar for a lot of folks, but it’s huge. In 2023, Hudson had 2.3 yards per route run and caught 35 passes from Diego Pavia at New Mexico State. Then he made the jump to Mississippi State before reuniting with his quarterback.
This year, he's back, and that kind of connection can mean some serious production.
On the defensive side, the Commodores finished 54th in Havoc and were just average at stopping the run along the defensive line.
So, the real question is, when do the books finally catch up to Pavia? His record against the spread over the last two seasons is an impressive 19-8-1.
Look, Hugh Freeze is going to have nightmares watching film of this team this year. There are three clear wins on the schedule in Charleston Southern, Georgia State and Utah State, but a nonconference game against Virginia Tech could be tough. Missouri and Kentucky are short underdog spots they’ll need to get past to go over this win total.
Pick: Vanderbilt Under 5.5 Wins
There are plenty of things I like about the Hogs this year.
Quarterback Taylen Green showed up to camp with an extra 15 pounds of muscle. My hope is that he can run the RPO with O'Mega Blake, the wide receiver transfer from Charlotte who posted 3.3 yards per route run across 58 targets last season.
Green faced a whopping 177 pressures last year, but the pass protection should improve, as over 100 offensive line starts return.
Corey Robinson II transfers in to play blindside tackle after making 36 starts across three years at Georgia Tech, ranking third nationally among tackles in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades. Caden Kitler transfers in to play center after making 11 starts last year with UCF and ranking 54th among centers in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades.
That said, I’m very worried about the defense.
The defensive line could be horrific, especially at generating pressure, which will only adversely affect a secondary that’s a mish-mash of talent from Stanford, Auburn and Florida. The Hogs may really struggle to stop the pass this year.
The run defense could be fine. Linebackers Xavian Sorey and Stephen Dix are solid tacklers in the middle, and tackle Ian Geffrand is a monster of a man in the middle (close to 400 pounds).
And all that said, I’m most worried about the schedule and coaching staff.
The Razorbacks will play Tennessee, LSU and Texas on the road as heavy underdogs. Their road trip to Memphis is in a brutal spot, sandwiched in between games against Ole Miss and Notre Dame. They essentially have to beat Alabama A&M, Arkansas State, Memphis, Mississippi State, Auburn and Missouri to eclipse their 5.5-game win total.
I’m also hearing rumors that the relationship between offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino and defensive coordinator Travis Williams is eroding, and head coach Sam Pittman is squarely on the hot seat.
I’m not expecting the Hogs to go bowling, and I'm wagering accordingly.
Pick: Arkansas Under 5.5 Wins
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I actually like Kentucky more than most, mainly because of transfer quarterback Zach Calzada.
Calzada struggled under pressure at Texas A&M, particularly behind an offensive line that failed to keep him clean. However, he posted 54 big-time throws to 32 turnover-worthy plays across two years at Incarnate Word, and he cut his TWP rate under pressure from 12.2% in that first year to 4.5% in the second.
That’s marked improvement and makes me hopeful for the future.
The offensive line is a collection of experienced transfers, including left tackle Shiyazh Pete (first-team All-CUSA), right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger (first-team All-Mac), and left guard Joshua Braun (Arkansas). I’m hopeful they can keep Calzada clean, and I’m hopeful that Calzada can still rip passes with hands in his face.
I also like the skill-position talent. Running back Dante Dowdell transfers in from Nebraska after scoring 12 touchdowns and averaging 2.8 yards after first contact last season, and wide receiver Kendrick Law transfers in from Alabama.
The defense will be transfer-heavy. The Wildcats will have starters from South Dakota and Washington State on the defensive line and two starting linebackers from the MAC, alongside two returning cornerbacks.
Ultimately, projected turnover regression (Kentucky was -7 in net turnovers last season) and projected improved quarterback play have me high on the Wildcats.
There aren’t many breaks on the schedule, but I’m hopeful the ‘Cats can steal a win at South Carolina, given head coach Mark Stoops is 12-6 ATS after a bye week in his career.
Pick: Kentucky Over 4.5 Wins
I project 4.4 wins for Mississippi State this year, meaning the Bulldogs should eclipse their 3.5-game win total.
But I’m not betting it because quarterback Blake Shapen needs a clean pocket to operate, and I’m not in love with the new offensive line.
The Bulldogs reeled in five offensive line transfers from the portal, bringing 91 career starts in total. I’m specifically calling out left tackle Blake Steen, who allowed 10 pressures against Notre Dame and SMU late last season.
The secondary returns a couple of key pieces on defense, but the Bulldogs ranked dead last among FBS teams in creating contested catches.
The front seven returns star linebacker Isaac Smith, but the defensive line features a handful of transfers from Texas, Texas A&M and Miami, and none of them saw much playing time at their past stops.
I project the Bulldogs as double-digit underdogs in every SEC game. I also wonder if Southern Miss might knock them off in Week 1, as the market has knocked that line down.
There will be chances late in the season against potentially vulnerable opponents, but I think the market is correct with the win total. If I had to go over or under, I'd go under.
Pick: Mississippi State Under 3.5 Wins
