A Big Ten team has won the College Football Playoff National Championship 2 years in a row.
First, it was Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines hoisting the trophy in 2023-24 before their rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes, won it all a season ago.
Can the Big Ten make it 3 in a row this season?
Action Network expert Collin Wilson jumped in to break down the conference and dish out his top futures and win totals in the Big Ten for 2025.
With that, let's dive into our 2025 Big Ten Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 Big Ten Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ohio State | +190 |
| Penn State | +240 |
| Oregon | +320 |
| Michigan | +800 |
| USC | +2200 |
| Illinois | +3000 |
| Iowa | +3500 |
| Indiana | +3500 |
| Nebraska | +4000 |
| Washington | +6000 |
| Minnesota | +10000 |
| Michigan State | +15000 |
| Wisconsin | +20000 |
| UCLA | +20000 |
| Rutgers | +25000 |
| Northwestern | +30000 |
| Maryland | +50000 |
| Purdue | +50000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Aug 12.
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There are a ton of questions swirling around Ohio State on both sides of the ball this season. You’d think a National Championship team would have fewer question marks, but that's not the case here.
Starting with the offense, the biggest mystery is who starts at quarterback, which could really shape the entire style of the offense.
The next question comes down to offensive coordinator Brian Hartline.
Last season, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly pounded the rock with running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins before opening up a pass-heavy attack in the College Football Playoff.
So, what offense will Hartline call this season? He has been around forever, but will he run the traditional zone-read or spread it out to let guys like Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Max Klare make plays in space?
Well, again, a lot of it depends largely on the quarterback. If they roll with a Will Howard-type — someone who's more of a runner — you’re probably going to see a more run-first offense. If it’s a pure passer like Julian Sayin — who hasn’t gotten great reviews in camp so far — then you might get more of an aerial attack.
One bright spot is that I do like what CJ Donaldson brings to the backfield, especially if they lean heavily on the run. He’s a bruiser from West Virginia, and if he can stay healthy, that could be huge.
Compare that to James Peoples, whose numbers frankly don’t impress me. He’s been limited in action and averages only three yards after first contact. So, Donaldson staying on the field is essential.
Now, the offensive line is going to be a hot topic. There are a lot of transfers and a lot of question marks in the trenches.
Left tackle Ethan Onianwa will serve as the new blindside protector, but last year at Rice, he allowed one sack and nine pressures. He graded out the 170th-best tackle in 2024, per PFF. That’s not what we'd expect from Ohio State’s line.
Moving to defense, the biggest question mark is probably at defensive coordinator with Matt Patricia taking over for Jim Knowles. I genuinely think Patricia’s schemes and play-calling could cost Ohio State a game.
On the field, the defensive line isn’t as potent as last year's unit.
Caleb Downs will also be a huge variable. He started last season as a single high safety, but in the playoff, Knowles moved him closer to the box, roaming between the A and C gaps. If he doesn’t make plays from that position, Ohio State might not win the national title.
Where he lines up this year will be a big question.
Outside linebacker Sonny Styles might be the best in the Big Ten, but even he had a 19% missed tackle rate last year.
Ohio State’s defense is also bringing in some new edge rushers from North Carolina and two sophomore defensive tackles with little experience and maybe not the size we’re used to from this program. That adds even more uncertainty.
While there’s a lot of hype on this defense, there are still concerns.
Ohio State went all-in last season with coordinators who completely scrapped everything and rewrote their entire offensive and defensive playbooks on the fly right before the playoff. They had a unique creativity edge that might not be there this year.
Finally, the schedule is brutally tough. The Buckeyes have back-to-back road games at Wisconsin and Michigan, plus a trip to Rutgers right before the Michigan game. The running game's going to be tested, and we’ll see how much Patricia’s defense can hold up.
All in all, I think there’s enough here to raise some red flags on Ohio State. I’ll take the Buckeyes to go under 10.5 wins at -140.
The power rating should probably take a hit just on the coordinator situation and questionable personnel spots. The Buckeyes won the title last year with an elite coaching makeover, but those moves are harder to replicate, and the schedule’s no joke.
Pick: Ohio State Under 10.5 Wins
My expectations for this team are bigger than my win total projections. Sometimes you just step away from the numbers and look at the team itself. Well, this might just be the best group on paper in the entire country.
Looking at Penn State’s roster, it’s loaded like crazy, and head coach James Franklin’s track record is solid. The Nittany Lions return quarterback Drew Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and the offensive line.
The wide receiver room has also been beefed up in a major way.
USC transfer Kyron Hudson is a total freak athletically and was one of the best receivers last year for USC. Then there’s Trebor Peña from Syracuse and Devonte Ross, who averaged an insane 2.8 yards per route run at Troy.
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, the offensive genius here, is sitting on an embarrassment of riches. The big question is whether or not Franklin will let him run the offense fully. Franklin has to be hands-off and let Kotelnicki call the shots.
On the defensive side, Jim Knowles is the game-changer Penn State has been waiting for for years. There might be a little drop-off in talent compared to before, but with recruiting and the portal, I don't think that will be a big issue by the end of the season.
Dani Dennis-Sutton is single-handedly a one-man wrecking crew, and Zane Durant put up eight tackles for loss as a defensive tackle.
If there’s maybe one weak spot, it could be at the nickelback position.
Zion Tracy had a rough go, with a missed tackle rate near 40% over 390 snaps, and that role is critical in Knowles’ defense. It’s always about the guy who fills that bullet position, and that’s Penn State needs to tighten up.
Offensively, Allar still worries me a bit, especially when it comes to recognizing pre-snap blitzes and his reluctance to throw the ball away when he needs to. That stuff should clean itself up as the year progresses, though.
Schedule-wise, Penn State has it easy in the nonconference with Nevada, FIU and Villanova. If it can’t cover those, something’s seriously wrong.
Then, Dan Lanning and the Ducks show up, but by then, Penn State shouldn’t have given much away at all.
There's also a bye week before the Ohio State game. Both teams getting a break will help, but I’d take Penn State’s coaching staff over Ohio State’s coordinators any day.
Michigan State and Nebraska visit in November, both coming off byes, and by that point, Penn State should be cruising as a favorite of 14-21 points.
I don’t see Penn State missing the playoff this year. If you want to put money on the Nittany Lions, the national title bet at 8-1 odds looks pretty juicy. With the schedule and that much returning talent, they’ll be 10-2 at worst, and probably 11-1.
This team is stacked, and if Franklin simply lets his coordinators do their thing, the floor is 10-2, and the ceiling could be undefeated. They’ve got a real shot to finally get past Ohio State, too.
Pick: Penn State to Win National Championship (+700)
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Two years ago, Dante Moore burst onto the scene at UCLA, and I freaked out thinking he was the next big thing. But then, the kid threw some of the most jaw-dropping interceptions I’ve ever seen.
Fast forward, and he’s been in the Oregon system for a year now. Moore needs to keep those turnovers in check after putting up a 14:12 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
When he's on, he threads some beautiful passes, but then, out of nowhere, he'll throw directly to a defender. There are some mind-boggling picks in there.
It's possible that offensive coordinator Will Stein's offense helps him.
Wide receiver Evan Stewart's yards per route run dropped from 2.1 to 1.6 last year, but that’s because Stein's offense is built around limiting mistakes for the quarterback.
Oregon isn’t a deep-ball team, but that might be Moore's saving grace. He’s not expected to chuck deep bombs, so that could really build his confidence. That controlled approach explains the dip in yards per route run for guys like Stewart and Malik Benson, who comes in from FSU and Alabama.
Speaking of newcomers, Dakorien Moore is the buzz around campus. Moore has pure, explosive athleticism. His recruiting profile even highlights his insane “sudden explosion from a dead stop.” No one will be able to keep up with him.
On the offensive line, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. The Ducks brought in four transfers with one starter. All of those transfers have combined for 120 career starts, but these guys haven’t played together. They aren’t familiar with this system. They haven’t operated in a zone or power run scheme like Oregon’s. That raises some concerns.
Let’s flip to defense now.
On the edge, they have Matayo Uiagalelei, an absolute force who will be an NFL edge rusher down the road. He’s coming back with 9.5 sacks, and on the other side, Teitum Tuioti returns with 5.5.
It looks like the same old Oregon defense we’re used to, with heavy pressure off the edge on passing downs.
The pass rushers are fierce, the secondary looks solid and athletic, but the run defense inside could be shaky. That includes Bear Alexander, who's on his third team in four years and has recorded only 12 tackles in his last 22 career games.
The schedule doesn’t make things any easier. A lot of the teams Oregon faces run power zone read like it’s their bread and butter, including Penn State, Minnesota, USC and Washington.
Speaking of Penn State, Jim Knowles coached against Will Stein twice last year, so if anyone’s ready for Oregon, it’s Penn State. With a bye week to prepare on top of that, the Nittany Lions’ defense looks strong.
Overall, I’m leaning under 10.5 wins for Oregon at -140.
I’m just not confident in that interior defense, especially against the run.
On offense, Dante Moore should be OK given the system. Like Bo Nix and Dylan Gabriel before him, he won’t be launching deep balls but will work in that short-to-intermediate space, letting guys like Dakorien Moore make plays after the catch.
So, keep an eye on that defense, especially inside, and monitor the schedule for game times and key matchups like Rutgers and Penn State. This is one Oregon team that could surprise folks, but it has clear spots to watch out for.
Pick: Oregon Under 10.5 Wins
Looking at Michigan’s schedule, it’s one of the easiest in the entire Big Ten.
But first, let's dive into the offense.
Michigan is going to lean heavily on its ground game, with Justice Haynes transferring in from Alabama, Jordan Marshall joining the mix and Bryce Underwood leading the way under center.
Chip Lindsey comes in as offensive coordinator, but he’s really the quarterbacks' coach in disguise. Lindsey’s role seems to be about helping Underwood hit the next level in his freshman season, which is no small feat considering how tough it is for freshmen to cut down on turnover-worthy plays in college football.
He’ll definitely face pressure, especially with the questions looming over the offensive line.
Speaking of the line, the right side is a bit of a nightmare. If Michigan’s running inside or outside zone, the left side might be stronger because the right side is so shaky.
The Wolverines have Nathan Efobi at right guard and a redshirt freshman in Andrew Sprague at right tackle. Do they have the footwork? If not, is the second string any better? This is a big question mark heading into the season.
On defense, I’m less worried than some.
Michigan returns its two top tacklers from last year, including linebacker Ernest Hausmann. The edge rushers should still bring some Havoc, and cornerbacks Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill combined for 17 pass breakups a season ago.
As mentioned, the Big Ten schedule itself is a huge advantage. Five road trips within the conference — Nebraska, USC, Michigan State, Northwestern and Maryland —are challenging, but for the stretch between Oct. 25 and Nov. 22, Michigan should be a double-digit favorite in most of those games.
That kind of dominance inside your own conference is rare unless you’re Alabama facing a weaker opponent.
I’m projecting three double-digit favorite spots leading up to the Ohio State game, which means the team should be fresh and peaking at the right time.
Overall, this is probably the softest Big Ten schedule Michigan will see anytime soon.
Oklahoma will be tough and will test the Wolverines defensively, but that experience will help come conference play. I’m not seeing more than one loss in Big Ten action — maybe two if you count a tricky road trip to USC or a tough game at Washington.
Michigan’s identity on offense and defense should improve steadily as the year goes on, with Oklahoma providing a harsh but valuable reality check early.
The odds for Michigan to make the Big Ten Championship game are solid. What started at about 4-1 odds has dropped to +380, which is promising. I’m not saying it'll win it all, but it has a great shot at reaching that title game with that schedule.
Pick: Michigan to Make Big Ten Championship (+380)
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When the oddsmakers dropped the line on Illinois, I couldn’t believe how high it was. It felt like they left no wiggle room at all. A lot of people outside the sports betting world were hyped about Illinois, but the oddsmakers had them priced just right.
It makes sense, as Luke Altmyer returns five starters up front on the offensive line. That continuity usually means consistent production.
Now, speaking of Altmyer's offense, I expect similar numbers to last year when it comes to pressure and overall performance. The Illini ranked 10th in Offensive Success Rate, meaning they can definitely move the chains. But on the flip side, they were 103rd in Havoc Allowed, which is a glaring weakness.
That’s something Altmyer has struggled with, especially when facing elite secondaries capable of generating pressure. In fact, in last year’s games against Oregon and Penn State, Altmyer posted just one good big-time throw to six turnover-worthy plays.
And now Illinois loses leading receiver Pat Bryant and second-leading receiver Zakhari Franklin. What’s left are two slot receivers in Hank Beatty and Collin Dixon. So, who’s stepping up to stretch the field? That’s a real question mark.
They ranked 18th in Passing EPA last year, so their passing game wasn’t bad. But if all of your returning receivers are slot guys, it feels like you’re stuck playing in a phone booth all season.
Defensively, they return nearly every starter, which sounds promising on paper.
They finished fourth in tackling, per PFF, and get strong contributions back from Gabe Jacas with eight sacks and linebacker Matthew Bailey with six pass breakups.
However, the run defense was a disaster. Illinois finished 127th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and 132nd in Defensive Line Yards. That’s the bottom of the barrel, and it has to be a focal point.
Have they fixed it? I’m skeptical. The hope is that more depth at defensive tackle helps, but this team was nearly the worst in the nation at defending the interior run. Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry has to step up.
Nose tackle Angelo McCullom didn’t flash much in the box scores when he played seven games last year, so I’m not convinced they’ve turned a corner there. If they can’t stop the run, teams will control the clock and keep their offense off the field.
Illinois plays six games where I’d make it a favorite of at least a touchdown.
Head coach Bret Bielema has also been really good as a road underdog. Since taking over at Illinois, he has gone 12-4 against the spread on the road when coming in as a 'dog, which puts a potential upset — or at least a cover — on the radar when it faces Indiana on Sept. 20.
Bielema’s the kind of coach who feeds off motivation when his team is getting disrespected or doubted in the media. But when the expectations are high, especially against teams that can pressure Altmyer and lock down contested catches, he struggles to deliver.
The offense looks like it’ll underperform against solid secondaries, especially without a true receiver out wide. And if Altmyer can’t find a consistent deep threat, the offense becomes very limited.
Plus, if teams can run an inside zone read on the Illini like last year, their run defense is going to get ripped apart all day. Nothing has changed there.
Illinois feels like a team to play week to week and pass on the win total. I don’t see it knocking off the Big Ten’s big dogs.
Pick: Pass
Head coach Curt Cignetti is back after leading Indiana to an 11-1 regular season and College Football Playoff bid in 2024.
Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan and Cignetti go way back to their time at James Madison, so there’s clearly trust there.
Now, their next project centers on Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
Mendoza caught some attention last year after Cal’s fast start, but his numbers are interesting. He had a solid 16 touchdowns to six interceptions, but when digging deeper, he posted 12 big-time throws to 17 turnover-worthy plays.
Looking further into it, Mendoza’s accuracy isn’t the problem. In fact, Cal ranked 14th in on-target rate last season.
What’s more intriguing is that his turnover-worthy plays didn’t spike under pressure; they were about the same whether he was in a clean pocket or facing pressure.
So, maybe those mistakes have more to do with youthful inexperience than anything else. I’m betting he’ll improve with this new coaching staff compared to what he had at Cal.
Maryland transfer running back Roman Hemby doesn’t jump off the page with stats, but IU has weapons like Omar Cooper Jr. and slot receiver Elijah Sarratt for Mendoza to lean on. That's not bad for a plug-and-play quarterback, as they combined for 15 touchdown receptions a season ago.
I also like Pat Coogan from Notre Dame joining at center. His 26 starts over two years at a power program are nothing to sneeze at.
On defense, Cignetti returns five of his top seven tacklers, and all three levels have playmakers.
This unit finished fifth in Havoc last year, which isn’t surprising given what JMU did when Cignetti was there. The biggest Havoc dealer, cornerback D'Angelo Ponds, is back after racking up 10 passes defensed in 2024.
Looking ahead at the schedule, it’s tougher than people give credit for. Back-to-back road games at Iowa and Oregon will be tough, and a later road game at Penn State makes it even more brutal.
Plus, the team only gets one bye before Thanksgiving, which is weird timing and an odd decision by the AD.
But the rest of the conference schedule is manageable, with the two other road games coming against Maryland and Purdue.
Overall, I see this as an over team. The defensive upside is there, the offense has promising pieces, and while the schedule won’t be a cakewalk, it’s bearable.
Pick: Indiana Over 8.5 Wins
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Matt Rhule is trying to put it all together in Lincoln, but there's one particular game I'm targeting on Nebraska's upcoming schedule: Sept. 20 vs. Michigan.
I think that spread should actually be way higher than what it’s set at now. As of writing, Michigan is favored by 3.5 points, but I’d bump that up to around 6.5. And if you’re factoring in other power ratings, SP+ makes it a 10.5-point advantage.
Why? Well, I don’t like what Nebraska’s front six is showing at all in its 3-3-5 defense under new defensive coordinator John Butler. That unit loses nearly all of its leaders in sacks.
The inexperienced defensive line and transfer linebackers will be the focal point after finishing tied for 35th in Defensive Line Yards last year.
We might be worried about Michigan’s offensive line, and while there are some question marks there, I’m way more uneasy about Nebraska’s defensive front.
Now, there are some positives.
Quarterback Dylan Raiola gets one of the highest returning experience marks around him on offense with a new coordinator in Dana Holgorsen. Raiola finished the year with a 17:12 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio and 4.7% turnover-worthy play rate with pressure — good marks for a freshman signal-caller.
The biggest issue for the offense is playmakers. The Cornhuskers ranked outside the top 100 in big-play rate and 114th in Finishing Drives. Dane Key could help with that after joining from Kentucky and recording 2.5 yards per route run.
Raiola should also be protected with over 130 starts returning to the offensive line.
Looking at Nebraska’s schedule, October actually looks like a pretty soft month. The Huskers have games against Michigan State, Maryland and Northwestern.
Early November could get tricky for Nebraska since both USC and UCLA fall in that timeframe. It also heads to Penn State after a bye on Nov. 22, which could be interesting.
Now, when it comes to win totals, I pegged Nebraska’s at about 7.9, so over 7.5 makes sense. But that’s not the play I’m after. I want all in on this Michigan game being the true test.
I expect the Wolverines to expose the Cornhuskers' line and dominate on the ground.
Pick: Michigan -3.5 vs. Nebraska (Sept. 20)
I really like this USC team — almost to the point of love.
Jayden Maiava has been a roller coaster. In Week 12 against Nebraska, he struggled with three turnover-worthy plays. But fast forward to Week 14, and he’s raining down six big-time throws on Notre Dame’s secondary. And that’s no small feat — the Fighting Irish's secondary is legit.
At running back, Bryan Jackson will step in to replace Woody Marks, but there wasn't much in the missed tackles or yards after contact departments in those last couple of games against Notre Dame and Texas A&M.
Wide receiver is a different story, though. Makai Lemon has been a revelation with 3.3 yards per route run, which is huge considering that anything over 2.0 is "explosive." In fact, he out-paced Zachariah Branch with fewer catches.
Ja'Kobi Lane is also an absolute burner at wideout, which means there’s no question about USC’s ability to create explosive plays offensively.
That said, there’s room for improvement in other areas, especially pass blocking, where USC ranked 120th a season ago. Giving Maiava some extra protection could make a world of difference.
And even though Lincoln Riley’s offense finished 85th in Finishing Drives, it’s still a Riley system. I expect some growth there.
The defense is where the real story is. Defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn might just be the unsung hero in college football.
Two years ago, USC’s defense ranked dead last in basically every category. Last year, it climbed to 14th in PFF tackling, 50th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 52nd in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Plus, it led the nation in limiting explosives overall and on passing downs.
The Trojans' defensive front seven is bigger and deeper, too, with Eric Gentry expected to be one of the best outside linebackers in the Big Ten.
Cornerback Kamari Ramsey has been in Lynn’s system since UCLA, so that continuity should help. There are still some questions in the secondary, but with another year under Lynn, the sky’s the limit for this defense.
Looking ahead, I’m expecting the Trojans to start strong with four wins before heading to Illinois. They have a bye week after that and then host Michigan. A win there would be huge, and they also have some coin-flip games like Iowa at home and Nebraska on the road.
But here’s the real question: Can they make the Big Ten Championship game with one loss on that slate? If they pull it off, they’d be looking at about 22-1 odds to win the Big Ten.
Personally, I’ve already got a 4-1 bet on Michigan to make the Big Ten Championship. I’m seriously considering pulling the trigger on USC to make it, too. The problem is they play each other, so it’s kind of knocking each other out, and tiebreakers will come into play.
Pick: USC Over 7.5 Wins
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Losing Steve Belichick was definitely a blow for Washington, but it then brought in Ryan Walters, who changes the whole dynamic. Before the failed head-coaching gig at Purdue, Walters was incredible as Illinois’ defensive coordinator.
Belichick had the Huskies locked in against the pass last year, but they sat outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed. With Walters stepping in, expect a much more balanced defense. Those tough Illinois defenses he ran are coming to Washington now.
The defensive backs remain one of the best units in the Big Ten, especially with Arizona transfer Tacario Davis and Ephesians Prysock holding down the fort at cornerback.
There’s also solid depth up front on the defensive line with a mix of transfers from FIU, Arizona and Miami. It’s basically a defensive line all-star team coming together to shore up the run defense, which was a weak link before.
On offense, I’m really excited about what quarterback Demond Williams and running back Jonah Coleman bring to the table. Coleman, in particular, flew under the radar last year, as he recorded 192 carries, forced 67 missed tackles and averaged 4.3 yards after first contact.
That’s impressive in any scheme, especially a zone-read offense.
Williams matched that missed tackle rate and put up an 8:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also stepped up big in the last couple of games, including the Sun Bowl, ending with a solid 5:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a low turnover-worthy play rate against tough defenses like Oregon and Louisville.
The offensive line should be better, too. The transfer portal strength is mainly inside, plus they got Carver Willis, who started two years at right tackle for Kansas State. With that kind of experience, some stability is guaranteed.
Unfortunately for the Huskies, five teams face them coming off a bye week, including Ohio State, Maryland, Rutgers, Illinois and Wisconsin.
Washington will be a heavy favorite in three nonconference matchups, plus Rutgers at home and UCLA on the road. Its travel schedule is pretty light overall, as it leaves the Pacific time zone only three times.
I have Washington projected for 8.1 wins and really like its chances to go over this total, especially at plus-money.
Pick: Washington Over 7.5 Wins
While new Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski didn’t play in the spring game because of an injury, he’s back in camp and practicing just fine.
Over four years with South Dakota State, he tossed 93 touchdowns against 20 interceptions and posted a turnover-worthy play rate under 2%. That’s the kind of quarterback Iowa needs.
He’s working on his timing with the receivers, so we’ll have to see how that develops, especially since the depth at wideout is still pretty unclear.
Speaking of departures, Kaleb Johnson left for the NFL. With the playmaking running back gone, there are now a few questions about the offensive line.
They are getting the interior pieces back, which helps, but left tackle is up in the air.
Kamari Moulton looks set to take over as the primary back after averaging 3.6 yards after contact last season. That’s promising because a lot of Johnson’s rushing yards came on his own. The offensive line ranked 80th in Line Yards, so he oftentimes had to make something out of nothing.
Moulton’s yards after contact numbers suggest he’ll have to create his own space as well.
Turning to the defense, Iowa’s defensive line might be the best in the Big Ten. Six of the eight players in the two-deep are back, including a pair of Havoc-causing defensive tackles.
Linebacker is a position with a lot turnover, but cornerback Deshaun Lee is back after recording seven pass breakups and an interception last year.
The schedule is loaded with coin-flips, and a lot of tough games are on the road like Iowa State, USC and Nebraska. But under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has historically shown up on the road and covered the spread about 66% of the time with a 30-16 ATS record in the last decade.
I project Iowa at about 7.3 wins. I like the over if you can get it at around 6.5 wins for -170, or better yet, an alternative line at 7 wins for -110 or -120. They’re definitely a seven-win kind of team with potential to pull off some upsets, especially if the defense remains strong.
One thing to keep in mind is that while Gronowski’s stats look impressive, you can’t simply transplant an FCS quarterback’s numbers to FBS play and expect the same results. The production gap between levels is huge, and even within FBS, there’s a big difference between Group of Five and Power Five competition.
But ultimately, the Hawkeyes have the pieces if the line can improve and Gronowski clicks.
Pick: Pass
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Is Minnesota going to lose in Week 1 to Buffalo with this offense and quarterback situation?
Drake Lindsey won the starting QB job over Georgia Tech transfer Zach Pyron, who then transferred to South Alabama. That leaves Minnesota with very little depth at quarterback.
Minnesota’s success basically comes down to two things: the offensive line and running back Darius Taylor.
But right now, that line looks shaky. There’s only one returning starter with 24 career starts. The portal has brought in guys with 55 combined starts, which sounds promising until you dig into who those guys are.
For example, guard Marcellus Marshall from Kent State ranked 160th among guards by PFF. And Dylan Ray from Kentucky comes in at a mind-boggling 525th among guards.
Add in a redshirt freshman who’s supposed to man the blindside tackle spot, and you’ll get why this line raises a lot of questions. This isn’t just about adding experience; it's about adding bad experience.
The Bulls are legit in the trenches, especially from a MAC perspective, which is why they could cause problems.
Defensively, Minnesota finished 16th in Havoc last season and enters 2025 with a new defensive coordinator in Danny Collins, who names his defense "HAVOC" as an acronym.
The Gophers have very inexperienced corners at the FBS level and FCS transfers on the defensive line from. Free safety Koi Perich will lead this unit after earning second-team freshman All-American honors a season ago.
Ultimately, Minnesota’s shaky QB and offensive line situation sets the stage for Buffalo, a strong MAC team that’s solid up front, to make a statement right out of the gate.
I lean under here and toward the Bulls covering in Week 1.
Pick: Buffalo +16.5 vs. Minnesota (Week 1 · Lean)
I’m still scratching my head over why Wisconsin ever handed the offense over to Phil Longo. He just never seemed to figure it out.
Wisconsin has always been a program that knows exactly what it is and knows how to build itself up through the high school players that come through the state.
Now, the Badgers will make the switch to Jeff Grimes, and it feels like they’re finally getting back to their roots. This is a great shift because the ground-and-pound style we associate with Wisconsin football is back.
Quarterback Billy Edwards is a key piece here, but he has to stay healthy. He’ll be expected to fill that same role Jalon Daniels played at Kansas last year, racking up over 300 yards on designed runs.
The thing is, the running backs aren’t exactly your traditional Wisconsin power backs. Darrion Dupree and Dilin Jones are both second-year guys listed under 250 pounds, so they don't fit the classic Wisconsin mold.
My main worry is whether or not they can handle a full season’s workload.
Up front, there are three returning starters on the offensive line with a combined 111 starts, which sounds solid. Their pass blocking was decent, but the line’s overall yardage stats fell outside the top 50 last year.
With his background coaching offensive lines at BYU and Baylor, Grimes should bring some noticeable improvement there.
The real test will be what the line does in those earlier games against Miami (OH) and Middle Tennessee. If their Line Yards go up significantly, I’d be ready to back Wisconsin in more spots as the season unfolds.
Defensively, Wisconsin has some solid returning experience and important additions from the transfer portal, which is why I’m higher on its win total.
Cornerbacks Nyzier Fourqurean and Ricardo Hallman combined for nine pass breakups last year. Outside linebacker Christian Alliegro was the team's second-leading tackler and one of the best in the Big Ten.
But here’s the problem: they ranked 128th in Havoc, which means they weren’t generating many turnovers or creating chaos behind the line of scrimmage. That needs to improve in a big way.
Wisconsin’s contested catch rate also came in at 121st, which is just unacceptable for its defensive standards. Fundamentally, the secondary needs to tighten up and get back to basics, or else this defense won’t live up to its potential.
The schedule also has no breaks. The Badgers go to Alabama in their last nonconference game and then turn around and host Maryland before going to Michigan off a bye week. Then, there's a three-week stretch: vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State and at Oregon.
But still, I project Wisconsin around 6.3 wins, so if I had to bet the over/under on its win total, I’d play the over.
Also of note, that -17 number in Week 1 against Miami (OH) is not a good number. I think it should be at least a touchdown higher. Miami doesn't return a lot, and it doesn't have a lot going on in the MAC.
With what Grimes wants to do and with the health they should have in Week 1, they should steamroll Miami (OH).
Pick: Wisconsin -17 vs. Miami (OH) (Week 1)
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Rutgers’ biggest challenge last year was its quarterback situation, but it didn’t stop me from betting on it consistently.
Even though there’s some uncertainty, the defense ranked in the top five nationally in Havoc Allowed, and that’s largely thanks to head coach Greg Schiano and offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca.
These guys really know how to coach a disciplined team that avoids mistakes. In fact, Rutgers won four games last year outright as an underdog, which says a lot about their coaching and grit.
I’m confident enough in this coaching staff to take over 5.5 at -125. I actually have them at 6.5 wins, and I fully trust they’ll keep that Havoc Allowed number in the top five again.
Now, I do have some reservations about quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. Even in Ciarrocca’s second year working with him, Kaliakmanis posted an 18:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which isn’t terrible, but the bigger issue is his turnover-worthy plays, especially when faced with blitzes.
When blitzed, his turnover-worthy play rate jumps from 1.6% to 5.7%, which is concerning. He’s a bit all over the place with accuracy as well, ranking 123rd in on-target rate. That kind of inaccuracy doesn’t just vanish, so this remains a question mark.
At running back, Antwan Raymond’s missed tackle rate is on par with Kyle Monangai's, which bodes well for Rutgers’ run game.
Two of the top three receivers are also returning, and their offensive line boasts 106 career starts combined, which is a big plus.
Defensively, there are some open questions at linebacker and in the secondary. Still, the addition of Jacobie Henderson from Marshall gives them a boost. Overall, I like that coaching staff, as it always seems to patch up any deficiencies on the roster.
So, while there are some coin-flip moments and areas to keep an eye on, I think the coaching and the pieces in place are enough to push Rutgers over 5.5 wins.
Pick: Rutgers Over 5.5 Wins
I’m not buying an over on Michigan State’s win total at 5.5. Looking at those 143 pressures on quarterback Aidan Chiles, that’s a massive red flag. Sure, he had 13 big-time throws and 20 turnover-worthy plays, but when your offense is under that much pressure, it’s tough to push out a solid season.
The Spartans' pass blocking ranks 126th overall. If that improves, we could see Chiles’ numbers get better, and as a result, there could be a bump in their power rating. In fact, MSU could come out against Western Michigan and bump its power rating by five points or so if things look right early on.
But let’s temper expectations. Sacramento State transfer running back Elijah Tau-Tolliver doesn’t wow me. He’s averaging just 2.8 yards after first contact and created a mere 33 missed tackles on 182 rushes.
Meanwhile, Nick Marsh is a key for this offense. With 2.1 yards gained per route run, he’s the connection Chiles really needs.
The offensive line has to get better for any of this to work. If they do clean things up, forget the preseason projections — Michigan State’s outlook will look very different.
Defensively, Michigan State brought back safeties Malik Spencer and Nikai Martinez, who are both solid in pass defense and tackling. The defense struggled in coverage at 126th but finished top-50 in tackling. Its run defense was also strong, ranking 21st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The defensive line depth is promising. With several 300-pound tackles on the roster, plus Joe Rossi’s hybrid 4-3 scheme featuring standup edge rushers like Jaylen Thompson, that pressure number has to improve. Last year’s Havoc ranking of 99th and pass rush ranking of 129th were terrible.
The schedule is tough, too, with Michigan and Penn State both coming at home. There are also just four Big Ten home games, with the finale against Maryland being played at Ford Field.
I don’t see Michigan State keeping it close in six of its eight conference games.
Pick: Michigan State Under 5.5 Wins
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The first play I entered into the Action App this season was Utah ML -130 vs. UCLA in Week 1. That was probably late April, and those numbers are long gone now.
I still can’t figure out what’s really going on with UCLA’s quarterback situation. This program has some serious Ball family vibes happening with the Iamaleava family drama.
Nico Iamaleava is set to be QB1 at UCLA after transferring from Tennessee due to some NIL issues. I think the Bruins overpaid for Nico, and I’m not convinced it’ll pay off.
Iamaleava has no escape ability. He was sacked on 26% of all pressured snaps last season. Now, he has to deal with an offensive line that might be the worst in the Big Ten, made up of a mishmash of journeymen portal guys with limited reps.
Head coach DeShaun Foster is talking up a “balanced offense” with new coordinator Tino Sunseri, but that doesn’t really check out. Sunseri calls a power-heavy run game and isn’t exactly known for throwing the ball around.
And with Nico’s lack of mobility, they’re going to lean heavily on the run game, which centers around running back Jalen Berger. But Berger’s been declining in yards after contact. Every single game at Wisconsin and Michigan State showed that.
Plus, he’s not great at breaking tackles or creating big plays after the first hit. You want a ground-based offense? Fine, but at least have backs who can execute it. UCLA doesn’t have that.
This means the Bruins will often find themselves in obvious passing situations, and that’s when Nico’s footwork (or lack thereof) really becomes a problem. Honestly, I just don’t see much coming out of this offense.
Defensively, it’s even uglier. UCLA lost its top 11 tacklers from last year, and the secondary is all portal players from places like Morgan State, Miami, UCF and Ole Miss.
The front seven still looks terrible after finishing 114th in pass rush. Defensive coordinator Ikaika Malloe now enters his second year, but the defense ranked 123rd in Finishing Drives last season. That metric means they couldn’t get stops when it mattered, and the outlook isn’t any better going forward.
UCLA looks like a total mess right now. It's the only school that actually opened its wallet to get Iamaleava, who was shopped everywhere.
Utah is going to feast on this in Week 1. Morgan Scalley’s 4-2-5 defense will have no problem pressuring Nico and making life miserable for the newest Bruin.
Pick: Utah -3 or Better vs. UCLA (Week 1)
Offensive coordinator Zach Lujan must improve the offense in Year 2 after finishing in the bottom 15 in every category a season ago.
Quarterback Preston Stone transfers in from SMU. He didn't play much in 2024 but had a 33:13 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio for the Mustangs in 2023.
This team will see plenty of South Dakota State infusion on the offensive line and with the receivers. A big part of that will be Griffin Wilde, who lined up both in the slot and out wide and racked up 3.2 yards per route run.
The top four running backs also return, which is a nice boost. There was nothing flashy in Cam Porter or Joseph Himon's numbers, but they bring stability — and that counts.
Defensively, middle linebacker Mac Uihlein assumes the role of the best returning starter with 85 tackles, two sacks and a PBU from a season ago. There's also next-level potential in defensive end Anto Saka, who created 27 pressures last year.
The two-deep in the secondary has average experience, as cornerback Josh Fussell leads the group with his five pass break-ups.
The real question is whether the South Dakota State offensive system finally translates to success at Northwestern. Defensively, David Braun had it going from Day 1.
I have Northwestern favored over Western Illinois, ULM and a coin-flip at home against Purdue. If I had to pick between the two, I’d give Northwestern a slight edge over UCLA, but it feels pretty close to a coin-flip.
I’m struggling a bit to fully buy into Northwestern’s ceiling.
Pick: Northwestern Under 3.5 Wins
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I make Maryland's win total 3.9, so it's clear the team is struggling.
If culture’s the problem, you bring in someone like NFL quarterback coach Pep Hamilton as offensive coordinator to help develop freshman Malik Washington and Justyn Martin. Maybe that stirs up some positivity.
Then there’s Jalil Farooq, who spent a bunch of years at Oklahoma with 1.7 yards per route run in 2023. Slot receiver Octavian Smith Jr. also provides the offense with some weapons.
But the offensive line remains the biggest issue. Last season, this same squad finished 127th in sacks allowed and 129th in Quality Drives.
Flip over to defense, and things don’t get any better.
It’s brutal sitting outside the top 130 in FBS, but that’s exactly where they landed: dead last in coverage, 131st in defending explosive plays and 134th in Finishing Drives.
Defensive coordinator Ted Monachino seems like a bright spot. He talks about chaos and Havoc from the edges to generate pressure. Yet, they finished 121st in Havoc last year, and the depth chart is packed with inexperience.
The secondary is another question mark, filled with transfers from Wake Forest, Arkansas State and Bowling Green. It’s telling when you have to dip down to those programs to fill spots.
Honestly, just finding a win outside of the nonconference schedule seems tough.
The struggles on both sides of the ball are glaring, and while some new pieces bring hope, the outlook on the win total this season is still pretty bleak.
Pick: Maryland Under 4.5 Wins
I’m pegging this Purdue win total at 3.2. If you’re looking for a way to play against Purdue, betting the under on a game-to-game basis is the angle I���d trust the most.
Head coach Barry Odom runs a base 3-3-5 that’s all about lowering EPA for the opposing offense He’s really going all in and selling out to stop big plays.
The roster itself feels like a greatest hits compilation of players who fit Odom’s style. He has pulled former players from his previous stops at Arkansas and UNLV, basically bringing in former favorites who know how to get it done on defense.
Many guys on this unit might not have been starters elsewhere but have decent game reps under their belt.
Looking at the quarterback room, Malachi Singleton is the guy next in line if Ryan Browne doesn’t take the reins. Singleton filled in for Taylen Green at Arkansas and isn't the flashiest passer, but he's effective as a runner who can tuck and go.
One big question mark is Purdue’s identity. It could shift from week to week, but regardless, I expect Odom to do everything possible to limit explosive plays early on.
Special teams will get a boost, too, which helps those under plays.
While I make the Boilermakers' win total 3.2, I’m hesitant to jump on over 2.5 at -180. Can they win three games? Absolutely. But paying -185 on that seems steep.
For now, I’m sticking with game-by-game under bets, expecting the market to eventually catch up to the team’s defensive prowess.
Pick: Pass
