Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: B.J. Smith and Walter Pritchett
- Before placing your bets for Saturday's 4-game slate of college football bowl games, you might want to know how sharps are betting these games.
- Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
- Their favorite plays on Saturday include bets on Wake Forest-Memphis (12 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Buffalo-Troy (7 p.m. ET, ESPN).
The second Saturday of bowl season is upon us, and while four games isn’t quite what we’ve become accustomed to on Saturdays over the past few months, there should still be action aplenty throughout the day.
For experienced gamblers, one advantage is the rush of casual bettors who will come out of the woodwork to bet on college football.
And while that tends to create value in betting against the public this time of year, a couple of Saturday’s sharpest spots look to be in agreement with the masses.
Let’s take a look.
Birmingham Bowl: Wake Forest @ Memphis
12 p.m. ET | ESPN | Birmingham, AL
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 75 to 73)
If you were to view this game through The Action Network’s app or Sports Insights’ Live Odds page, you’d notice that the opening and current total are the same — 73. But that doesn’t quite tell the whole story of how this line has moved over the past couple weeks.
Until about midweek, the line movement on this total had been trending upward. After opening at 73, it was up to 75.5 at a few books behind almost 90% of bets. But as game day approached, sportsbooks began to up their limits, allowing sharps to reveal their opinion on the game.
Since Tuesday, this total has fallen back to its opening number as wiseguys have been all over the under.
Per Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, they’ve hit the under four times over the past four days. So while the over is still the more popular play — getting 65% of bets — oddsmakers have had no choice but to follow what their sharper customers are telling them.
Much of the reason for that is because sharps tend to bet more than squares. In this case, the 35% of bets on the under have accounted for 52% of actual money.
Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo vs. Troy
7 p.m. ET | ESPN | Mobile, AL