College Football Sharp Report: Pros Betting Clemson-Georgia Tech, 4 Other Games

Sep 22, 2018 8:40 AM EDT
  • We break down which college football Week 4 games are attracting money from sharp bettors.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
  • Their favorite Week 4 plays include bets on Clemson-Georgia Tech and Texas Tech-Oklahoma State.

Wiseguys came away with a slight profit last week, as the five sharpest angles from Week 3 went 3-2. Looking to build off that momentum, sharps have hit five Saturday games, including Clemson-Georgia Tech and Texas Tech-Oklahoma State.

As a refresher, here are some terms to know before diving in.

Betting Terms to Know

Sharp: A bettor with a long track record of consistent success.

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Full Sports Betting Glossary


>> All data as of Friday at 1 p.m. ET. Check out Sports Insights’ Bet Signals to track sharp action for college football’s entire Week 4 slate.


All games Saturday, Sept. 22. Line moves from Pinnacle.

Navy @ SMU

Noon ET

Sharp angle: SMU (line has remained at +6.5)

This line opened at Navy -6.5, and with 75% of bettors jumping on that side, oddsmakers have tried increasing it to -7 several times. On each occasion, however, sharps have steamed the number back down to 6.5 (you can find live betting market data here).

In fact, SMU has drawn 13 steam moves in this game — more than any other team this week. The Mustangs also account for 60% of dollars wagered despite landing only a quarter of bets, indicating that bigger — most likely sharper — bettors are behind them.

Georgia @ Missouri

Noon ET

Sharp angle: Missouri (line has remained at +14)

Georgia is the most popular bet of the entire college football weekend, yet this line hasn’t been able to hold steady at any number beyond -14.

Like in the case above, each time oddsmakers have tried to increase the number to 14.5, sharps have steamed it right back.

Mizzou has drawn only 14% of bettors, which puts the Tigers on pace to be the least popular SEC bet since 2011. Unpopular doesn’t necessarily mean unsuccessful, however.

According to our Bet Labs data, teams getting fewer than 15% of bets since 2005 have actually gone 151-140-3 against the spread (ATS).

In conference games, that record improves to 99-75-1 (57%).

Clemson at Georgia Tech

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Georgia Tech (moved from +15.5 to +15)

While fading one Georgia team, sharps are backing another.

Public money on Clemson — the Tigers have received 75% of bets — moved this line from -15.5 to -17.5 earlier in the week. Since that point, though, sharps have come in hard on Georgia Tech.

The Jackets have accounted for 37% of dollars despite only 25% of tickets, and have drawn 11 steam moves.

It’s worth noting, however, that the lowest Georgia Tech number to be steamed was +16.5.

North Texas @ Liberty

6 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Liberty (moved from +14 to +12.5)

Liberty has been drawing attention from sharp bettors seemingly all season. The Flames are just 1-1 against the spread, but wiseguys still appear to be finding value here on a weekly basis.

Despite getting only 35% of bets this week, sharp action has been enough to move this line off the key number of 14 down to 12.5.

Liberty has accounted for 44% of dollars wagered, and has been on the receiving end of five steam moves, the most recent of which came at +13.5.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State

7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 78.5 to 75.5)

A matchup between these two schools has points written all over it. Despite being the highest total on the entire slate, the over has still attracted 80% of bettors.

Sharps aren’t among that majority, however.

The under is seeing only 20% of bets, but those tickets are accounting for 46% of the money wagered on the total.

The under has also been steamed five times, causing this total to fall three points from 78.5 to 75.5 at Pinnacle.

Credit:

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback TaQuon Marshall

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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