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Saturday’s College Football Sharp Betting Picks: TCU vs. Kansas, Alabama vs. Auburn, More

Saturday’s College Football Sharp Betting Picks: TCU vs. Kansas, Alabama vs. Auburn, More article feature image

Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ryan Malbrough.

  • Looking for some betting value on the Week 13 college football slate? Look no further.
  • Our PRO Report has indicated three games with betting value heading into Sunday's slate, and it all lies on totals.
  • Danny Donahue breaks it down below.

Welcome to late November — aka the start of an overload of sports betting action. With the NFL, college football and college basketball all kicking, it can be a bit much to ask of a bettor to analyze over a hundred games in a single day — in some cases — in pursuit of value.

That’s why we created our new PRO Report feature. It breaks down each game for you and presents the ones offering the most value based on a set of five indicators: sharp action, bet-vs.-money percentages, historically profitable systems, model projections and picks from our sport-specific experts.

As for the Saturday slate, it’s already found a few games lighting up multiple signals.

  • 12 p.m. ET | NC State vs. Syracuse
  • 3:30 p.m. ET | Auburn vs. Alabama
  • 8 p.m. ET | TCU vs. Kansas

Let’s take a look at which bets the PRO Report is suggesting.

Note: Data as of 11:30 a.m. ET Friday.

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NC State vs. Syracuse

12 p.m. ET | ACC Network

Big bets from sharps are landing on the under in this ACC matchup, and they’ve brought the total down as a result. Our projections, however, suggest there’s still room for this number to drop.

Sharp Action

Sports Insights Bet Signals serve as our measuring stick for sharp action, and they’ve confirmed a sharp move on the under at an earlier line of 52.5. That led to a 2-point drop and is the reason we’re being offered just 50.5 points as of Friday morning.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

Also pointing toward a sharp backing of the under, the 58% of bettors on the under have generated a whopping 94% of actual money hitting the total thus far.

Of course, that creates a monetary liability for sportsbooks to take on, but perhaps more importantly, it reveals that the under is drawing much bigger bets — the ones more likely to come sharps.

Big Money edge: Under

Model Projections

For sharps to be so heavily invested in the under, they must be projecting this total lower than the actual line — and we are, too.

Our college football model, compiled by Collin Wilson, pegs the true number at just 46.9, presenting more than a field goal’s worth of value.

Model Projections edge: Under

Auburn vs. Alabama

3:30 p.m. ET | CBS

The (likely) absence of Nick Saban doesn’t have sharps believing in an absence of points in Saturday’s Iron Bowl. And once again our projections are right there with them.

Sharp Action

While SI Bet Signals did disclose a bit of sharp under action right after this line opened, it’s been just the opposite since, and in a much more noteworthy fashion.

Three signals have been triggered on the over since Monday afternoon, convincing oddsmakers to push this number from 60.5 up to a consensus 62.5.

Sharp Action edge: Over

Big Money

As you might expect, most bettors would prefer taking an Iron Bowl over to an under. Seventy-six percent, to be exact, have taken this over, but once again that backing has accounted for a significantly higher percentage of actual money.

In this case, 95% of the money, as of writing, is on the over.

Big Money edge: Over

Model Projections

Another field-goal difference between our projections and the listed line presents itself here, with Wilson projecting the total at 65.8.

Model Projections edge: Over

TCU vs. Kansas

8 p.m. ET | FOX Sports 1

The same trio of value signals sheds light on another over/under bet out of the Big 12 Saturday night.

Sharp Action

Of the three games listed, this is perhaps the most obviously expressed case of sharp action. Not only has the under drawn three SI Bet Signals, with no sign of accompanying pro activity on the over, but the downward movement has come despite a majority (54%) of bettors taking the over.

Sharp Action edge: Under

Big Money

A large part of the reason oddsmakers aren’t concerned with that 54%: it’s generated just 6% of the money landing on the total thus far, giving books reason to balance their liability, and revealing the opinions of the bigger bettors.

Big Money edge: Under

Model Projections

This game also boasts the biggest projections edge of the three listed. While the two above are offering about a field goal’s worth of value, this one is closer to a full touchdown.

Our model sets the total at just 44.1, providing just over seven points of value at lines of 51.5, and making this edge one of the biggest on the entire slate.

Model Projections edge: Under

There’s more sharp action Saturday…

Kentucky vs. Florida

Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss

Rutgers vs. Purdue

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