Florida State 2019 Betting Guide: When to Wager on the Seminoles

Florida State 2019 Betting Guide: When to Wager on the Seminoles article feature image
Credit:

Glenn Beil-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cam Akers

Florida State’s 2019 Betting Odds

  • Odds to Win National Title: 300-1
  • To Win ACC: 16-1
  • To Make to Playoff: 75-1
  • Win Total: 7.5

Florida State Schedule, Projected Spreads

What to Like about Florida State

Plenty was written about the failures on the offensive side of the ball, but Florida State had one of the best defenses in the country. The Seminoles are 17th in defensive returning production, giving us a good indication we can rely on Harlon Barnett in his second year as defensive coordinator.

Despite ranking 130th in starting field position, the Seminoles’ defense was 40th in finishing drives. Florida State was 26th in rushing S&P+ and 13th in completion percentage. With any help from an offense that was 130th in average third-down distance, the defense could be a top-20 unit.

Offensive help has come in the form of offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. From Baylor to Florida Atlantic to Houston, there has not been an offense that Briles didn’t make efficient and explosive.

The above chart looks at Briles’ stops as offensive coordinator. In most cases, the overall S&P+, efficiency, explosiveness and finishing drives rank greatly improved.

Florida State should see improvements in all areas of the offense, starting with an offensive line that 125th in stuff rate. There are seven lineman on roster who had a start in 2018, which should help Briles mold or mask where needed. With running back Cam Akers returning, the Seminoles could rank even higher than last season’s 11th in IsoPPP.

What Could Cause Problems

Injuries could stunt the growth of the offensive line. That’s true with every football team, from the NFL down to the local YMCA, but Florida State has a history with injury.

Cole Minshew dealt with neck and concussion issues on separate occasions. Moving to center is Baveon Johnson, who missed all of 2017 due to a meniscus issue. Christian Meadows missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury. Offensive line coach Randy Clements, who has been with Briles at every stop, has one of the toughest jobs in the country.

Other Nugget(s)

Florida State’s schedule might be a bit more difficult than the naked eye realizes. Virginia will be on extra rest when hosting the Seminoles after playing William and Mary on Friday, Sept. 6. Clemson, Syracuse and Florida also have extra rest before taking on the Seminoles.

On a bright scheduling note, Boston College might not have much in the tank hosting Florida State on Nov. 9 — the Eagles’ preceding schedule includes back-to-back road trips at Clemson and Syracuse.

Bets to Watch

The Action Network power ratings have the Seminoles at 7.5 wins for the season, exactly where operators have set the total. Six games are expected to be coin flip scenarios, including the opener against Boise State. I’ve already invested in Florida State -3.5 in Week 1 on The Action Network App, where you can follow my bets.

While the Seminoles might’ve bottomed out not making a bowl, Boise State is set to struggle to score points, ranking 120th in offensive returning production.

Florida State is set to be at least a touchdown favorite over Louisiana Monroe, Louisville, NC State and Alabama State. With road games against Virginia, Wake Forest and Boston College being coin flips, it might be a more wise investment to take the Seminoles over Boise State than an Over 7.5. The opener in Jacksonville presents the healthiest the team will be the entire season on both sides of the ball.