College Football Picks, Predictions: Stuckey’s Week 3 Bets for Florida vs LSU, USF vs Miami, More

As I do each and every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card.

My primary goal here is to simply discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully help you make more informed wagers.

I will write most of these up after betting them, which I log immediately on the Action App. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each to.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my nine favorite Week 3 spots. My final card will almost always be filled with an abundance of trash, but this week is particularly rancid.

There's a chance it goes very south quickly for some of these teams, so if you can't handle losing money backing bad teams, maybe just pick out one or two that catch your eye. I'm just used to the stink after nearly two decades of trauma.

• 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
• 2025: 4-3 (57.1%)
• Overall: 173-126-2 (57.9%)

Let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday's Week 3 slate.

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College Football Picks, Predictions for Week 3

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	Northwestern +28
	12 p.m.	Temple +24.5
	3 p.m.	Delaware +10.5
	4 p.m.	Arkansas State +21
	4:30 p.m.	Miami -16.5
	7:30 p.m.	Florida +7.5
	7:30 p.m.	Eastern Michigan +24.5
	7:45 p.m.	Vanderbilt +5.5
	8 p.m.	Tulsa +14

Northwestern +28 vs. Oregon

12 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

Nobody has looked better to start the year than the Ducks, who I had major questions (relative to market) about coming into the season.

I've certainly upgraded Oregon quite a bit after two purely dominant performances, but I still can't get to this number even after downgrading Northwestern following a poor showing at Tulane in Week 1, where new quarterback Preston Stone looked awful.

Although, losing the turnover battle 5-0 certainly didn't help matters.

It's also worth noting that Oregon has played two home games against an FCS opponent and an Oklahoma State that looks like it could be in the running for the worst P4 team once again.

With Penn State on deck and knowing the Nittany Lions are on a bye week, the Oregon staff might elect not to show as much on film here and pull their starters (or rest a few that are dealing with injuries) a bit earlier than normal with a big lead (but the backup quarterback situation is still pretty solid).

The Ducks also could get caught peeking ahead a bit to that top-10 showdown, and they could come out a bit sleepy for an 11 a.m. local kick (8 a.m. PT) on the lake.

From a matchup perspective, the athletic and talent gap between these two teams is drastic. That will be evident from the opening kick, but that's also why we are catching four touchdowns here.

Northwestern head coach David Braun has already hinted at slowing this game down offensively, and Northwestern's defense will, in all likelihood, sell out to prevent explosive plays as usual. Both help a large underdog in theory.

Northwestern caught right around this price last year at home against Ohio State in a game it covered, 31-7. Oregon is likely close to the top of many power ratings as of this moment, but it's not in the same neighborhood as that Ohio State team to me (at least not yet).

Plus, I still need to see more from quarterback Dante Moore against real competition.

I do worry about the Northwestern receiving corps getting any separation and potential Stone turnovers. The speed on the back end also isn't ideal, and leading rusher Cam Porter is out for the season with an injury.

Regardless, I have to play the spot at this number, but I do need four touchdowns.

Pick: Northwestern +28 or Better

Temple +24.5 vs. Oklahoma

12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

This is likely the best (and most obvious) situational spot on the board.

Following a marquee win over Michigan, Oklahoma will head to the City of Brotherly Love for a noon kick in a likely muted atmosphere against a significantly inferior opponent, with a highly anticipated matchup against Auburn on deck in Jackson Arnold's return to Norman.

It would not surprise me if the Sooners come out extremely lethargic in this clear sandwich spot.

I do believe the surface spot has mainly been accounted for by the market, but there could be a few other factors working in Temple's favor.

That Auburn game marks the first of eight SEC matchups against currently ranked teams. That's an absolutely gauntlet.

So, what does that mean?

Well, I imagine you don't want to show anything more than you need to, but, more importantly, you are going to need as much health as possible to get through that brutal slate in order to stay in the discussion for the College Football Playoff.

So, what does that mean for this game? I'm assuming you don't want to run John Mateer as frequently. Oklahoma also may pull its starters a bit earlier than usual with a big lead.

And if it does, it's possible it goes to third-string quarterback Whitt Newbauer (a Mercer transfer) instead of Michael Hawkins, who head coach Brett Venables said he doesn't want to use for a few series here or there in order to preserve his redshirt.

Additionally, I would assume Oklahoma wants to work on its standard running game, which remains a major work in progress with the Sooner running backs averaging just 2.83 yards per attempt through two games.

From a Temple standpoint, the Owls look vastly improved under new head coach K.C. Keeler, who I personally love as a head coach. He's certainly a massive upgrade over the previous two head coaches in North Philly.

Quarterback Evan Simon has looked great through two starts with a 77% completion percentage and nine touchdowns to no interceptions.

Now, that could just purely speak to the level of competition — UMass and Howard — but they did at least take care of business in convincing fashion.

I assume the Owls will grind this one down with a heavy dose of running back Jay Ducker and a short passing attack in order to shorten this game. That would be a welcome approach for a large home pup catching over three touchdowns.

Lastly, this is an important game for the Temple program to build some momentum with a respectable showing, which is why Keeler has made a few extra media appearances this week.

Many of the Owls players who were embarrassed in last year's 51-3 loss in Norman (lost turnover battle 6-0) have also talked at length about having this one circled. They should come out with a max effort.

Maybe Oklahoma comes out with full focus and keeps its foot on the gas longer than I anticipate while using Mateer's legs optimally. And maybe Temple really isn't that improved after just beating up on two terrible teams.

It's certainly possible, but I'll pay to find out.

Pick: Temple +24.5 (Play to +24)

Note: I'd look for live at this point if the line doesn't come back up to 24.

Delaware +10.5 vs. UConn

3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

This is a tough spot for UConn after a heartbreaking overtime loss at Syracuse.

It was an inspired effort, but I'm super low on Syracuse, which came in pretty beat up following a marathon game against Tennessee.

Coming into the season, I was a bit lower than the market on the Huskies, who had to replace two excellent tackles and plenty of production from an extremely underrated defense.

While that side of the ball still looks solid through two games under a very savvy defensive coordinator who mixes coverages and line stunts at a very high level, I still have questions.

The Huskies could be a bit deflated, but the Blue Hens should come out with plenty of enthusiasm for their first-ever home matchup as an FBS team against an FBS opponent.

This is a very experienced Delaware squad that brought back a ton of production from last season. The quarterback play is solid with Nick Minicucci, who threw for over 300 yards last week at Colorado.

That game played out a lot closer than the final score (24-3) indicates. Delaware finished with only two fewer yards (398-396) and actually averaged more yards per play (6.0-5.7).

Not only did the Buffaloes benefit from a quarterback surprise, but they also won the turnover battle 2-0 with the Blue Hens having four drives finish in Colorado territory without points (stopped on fourth, fumble, missed field goal, interception).

Colorado also scored a touchdown after a Delaware leaping penalty on a field goal attempt.

All things considered, the Blue Hens fared quite well in a tough spot against a P4 team. I project this closer to 8, so I happily took the 10.5. Just please guard Skyler Bell.

Pick: Delaware +10.5 (Play to +10)

Arkansas State +21 vs. Iowa State

4 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

This is a tough spot for Iowa State following a hard-fought, emotional win over in-state rival Iowa, which marked its first win over the Hawkeyes in Ames since 2011.

The Cyclones are also playing their fourth game already, with the first coming in Dublin. Fatigue could be an issue, especially considering head coach Matt Campbell said this week he's worried about the state of his team from a physical standpoint.

Could that lead to more rest and maybe starters getting pulled sooner than usual with a lead? It's certainly possible.

In fairness, Arkansas State is also coming off an emotional game against in-state big brother Arkansas, but I'm not worried about energy and focus levels here with the Red Wolves getting to host a top-15 P4 team that beat them, 52-3.

The last time Iowa State walked into this exact scenario, it lost outright at Ohio following the Cy-Hawk rivalry but did have food poisoning issues as only a short favorite.

Now, the Arkansas State defense is just dreadful, and its pace on offense might not help matters.

But Matt Campbell does sometimes go completely vanilla against inferior opponents, and this Iowa State offense is nowhere near as explosive as last season.

Although, in fairness, many of those spots have come against FCS foes. He has gone 8-2 ATS as a favorite of more than 20 vs. FBS teams, while Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones is just 2-11 ATS (15.4%) when catching 20-plus.

Lastly, has any team's wins aged worse than Iowa State's this season? It started off the season with a coin-flip win over Kansas State by three. The 1-2 Wildcats could easily be 0-3 with losses as 17- and 28-point favorites.

The Cyclones then dominated a very down South Dakota squad that lost last week as a 17-point favorite vs Lamar. Coyote quarterback Aidan Bouman essentially finished with the same stat line against Lamar as he did against Iowa State. That team may be way down at the FCS level.

And their most recent victory came against an Iowa offense that brought in a new quarterback who has the fewest passing yards through two games among any Big Ten signal-callers since 1995. The Hawkeyes certainly don't look vastly improved so far.

Pick: Arkansas State +21 or Better

Miami -16.5 vs. USF

4:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

I hate to fade my beloved Bulls, who I backed preseason to win the American. They undoubtedly have the best resume in all of college football to date with a pair of ranked wins vs. Boise State and Florida.

However, I have to get in front of the train in what is a brutal situational spot.

While USF comes off two massive games, Miami will come into this one riding high after a win over Notre Dame, followed by an early-season "bye week" against Bethune-Cookman.

I wouldn't be surprised if USF wears down hard in the second half, as it has done in past seasons against P4 competition.

I was super impressed by the Hurricanes on both sides of the ball in their opener vs. Notre Dame. The defense looks substantially improved under new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman and an influx of transfer talent on the back end.

Miami's dynamic duo at defensive end should also cause all kinds of problems for the South Florida offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, Carson Beck looked spectacular (and healthy) in his season debut. He also gets to work behind a dominant offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage and has a bevy of explosive weapons on the outside that should win their one-on-one matchups.

I'm not here to shortchange what USF has accomplished so far this season.

The Bulls are the rightful favorite as of this moment to grab the G5 playoff spot, but they did get a bit fortunate vs. Boise State with turnovers and caught a Billy Napier team taking them lightly last week.

Lastly, USF already got the two wins it needs for the College Football Playoff. Now, it basically just needs to stay healthy and win the American.

In order to do that, it might be best to not run quarterback Byrum Brown as much in this matchup, and USF likely just can’t run the ball with its backs against Miami, which will be able to get pressure with ease without blitzing on obvious passing downs.

I do have a ton of respect for Alex Golesh, who plays to win these types of games. He's not going to get conservative and will try to keep it within a respectable margin, which increases the chances of a Miami beatdown in an ideal situational spot.

Pick: Miami -16.5 (Play to -17)

Florida +7.5 at LSU

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

Who wants to back Florida after last week? I guess I'll be the lone person to buy low on the Gators above the key number of 7.

We've seen the Gators have these early-season head scratchers under head coach Billy Napier before, but we've also seen them rebound when nobody expected them to get off the mat.

It's also worth noting that Florida should get back defensive lineman Caleb Banks from injury. That will be an enormous addition up front, especially with LSU starting center Braelin Moore dealing with an injury.

If he can't go, LSU would turn to DJ Chester, who just isn't an SEC-caliber starting center at the moment. The Tigers may also have to make do without tight end Trey'Dez Green, who will be particularly missed in the red zone.

Admittedly, I came into the season bullish on the potential upside of LSU (and still am), but part of that had to do with the offensive line coming together to provide more balance for the offense with a viable rushing attack.

The Tigers still have a way to go in that department after averaging under four yards per carry against Louisiana Tech last week. And that picture gets much murkier if Moore can't go.

Lastly, the LSU hype train started after a huge road upset at Clemson, but it's possible that result spoke more about Dabo Swinney's squad than it did about the Bayou Bengals after what we saw last week.

I like that the Gators get to hit the road after an embarrassing loss and expect them to keep this competitive throughout.

Pick: Florida +7.5 or Better

Eastern Michigan +24.5 at Kentucky

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

This might be the ugliest dog of them all. I apologize in advance if you decide to partake in this painful-to-place wager on an EMU team that just lost at home to the Long Island Sharks. Yikes.

However, this is when you back a Chris Creighton team.

He just finds ways to make games close and thrives in the underdog role since he knows how to shorten games with a team that will rarely ever beat itself with turnovers, penalties or special teams mistakes.

After such an embarrassing loss, I expect a focused effort here on the road against a Kentucky team that might be a bit flat after a close loss to Ole Miss.

The Wildcats will have a new starting quarterback under center for this one in Cutter Boley, who actually may end up serving as an upgrade over Zach Calzada.

Time will tell, but I'm trusting the Eagles to keep this close against a Kentucky squad that might just slowly grind its way through this one to, let's say, a three-touchdown win with six potentially ranked SEC foes on deck following a bye week.

The EMU defense is an absolute mess. Therefore, it's entirely possible Kentucky just breaks way too many explosive runs en route to a points bonanza.

However, I'm still trusting an excellent road underdog coach to get us to the window after a humiliating home loss.

Pick: Eastern Michigan +24.5 (Play to +24)

Vanderbilt +5.5 at South Carolina

7:45 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

Earlier in the college football season, bettors are starved for data points, especially in this new era with heavy roster turnover. Well, you can't ask for better data points when it comes to this matchup, as both teams have played Virginia Tech.

In South Carolina's case, it basically played Virginia Tech to a stalemate on a neutral field but pulled away late after an 80-yard punt return touchdown.

Conversely, Vanderbilt went into Blacksburg and absolutely dominated the Hokies, outgaining them, 490-248, with an 8.6-4.1 yards-per-play edge. The Gamecocks actually got outgained, 336-328.

And it's not like South Carolina followed that up with a super impressive performance last week against South Carolina State. The 42.5-point FCS underdog actually finished with more yards (270-253) and almost the same yards per play (4.5-4.4).

Quarterback LaNorris Sellers finished just 11-of-19 for 128 yards, and the rushing attack was once again nonexistent.

This Gamecock team has issues on offense, and its defense lost a plethora of talent to the NFL. Even the special teams (where Vandy should hold an edge) lost all of its key pieces.

Lastly, that South Carolina defense, which already had to deal with an offseason talent drain, is now dealing with significant injuries as well.

Contrary to their respective rankings and public perception, I don't think there's much separating these teams at all. Give me Diego and the points.

Pick: Vanderbilt +5.5

Tulsa +14 vs. Navy

8 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

I'm going back to the well, fading Navy for a second straight week as a favorite of at least two touchdowns. You know that potential fade will always pique my interest if you've read this article or listened to our podcast over the years.

Navy still has some issues along the offensive line and on the back end of its defense after losing some real talent at both position groups.

I came into the season higher than the market on Tulsa after really liking the hire of head coach Tre Lamb, who's a massive upgrade over Kevin Wilson.

It was a disappointing effort last weekend in Las Cruces in a game the market bet the Golden Hurricane like it knew the final score.

Quarterback Kirk Francis ended up having a disastrous game before being replaced in the second half (concussion) by Baylor Hayes, who I thought looked very good. The freshman signal-caller finished an impressive 14-of-17 for 135 yards and has some wheels that give him higher upside in this offense.

Tulsa won't decide on a starting quarterback until later this week, but part of me hopes it's Hayes. Either way, I'm fine with buying low on Tulsa at two touchdowns or more after everybody else abandoned ship.

I expect a spirited effort from Tulsa in front of a good crowd that has some newfound enthusiasm for the program under Lamb in his conference opener.

Pick: Tulsa +14 or Better

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