The No. 15 Tennessee Volunteers (2-0) take on the No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs (2-0) on Saturday, Sept. 13 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Despite playing at Neyland Stadium, Tennessee comes into this game as a 3.5-point underdog (+155 on the moneyline), while Georgia is -3.5 favorite (-185 on the moneyline). The over/under, meanwhile, comes in at 55.5 total points.
Both of these teams made the College Football Playoff a season ago, but the Bulldogs got the best of the Volunteers in the regular season with a 31-17 win in Athens.
Let's take a look at our Tennessee vs. Georgia picks and college football predictions for this top-15 SEC matchup on Saturday, Sept. 13.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
It's Tennessee vs. Georgia. Josh Heupel vs. Kirby Smart. New quarterback Joey Aguilar vs. new quarterback Gunner Stockton. Morgan Wallen vs. Luke Bryan.
This SEC classic dates back to 1899, when the Vols beat the Dawgs by a whopping score of 5-0.
Of course, a lot has changed since then. Georgia now leads the series, 29-23-2, after picking up a 14-point win in Athens last season.
But over the years, this has been an incredibly tight rivalry. From 2011-16, the winning margin never exceeded eight points, including when Tennessee won on a Hail Mary in Smart's first year in 2016.
Smart quickly got acclimated to the series, though, smacking Tennessee 41-0 to give the Vols their worst home loss in over 100 years. It's been all Dawgs since then, as Georgia has won eight straight over Tennessee.
That means the Vols are looking for revenge, and the Bulldogs are looking to keep their foot on the gas. This is the stuff country songs are made of.
It looks like it'll be another tight one this season. With a spread of 3.5 and a total of 50.5, where is there money to be made?
Our staff broke down their picks for the spread and over/under below.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Georgia -3.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is split on the outcome of this game relative to who covers, with a slight lean given to Georgia to cover the short 3.5-point number. This is a position I agree with, and I had this spot circled in the summer as one to play the Dawgs.
Defensively, Georgia is going to bring it, and I'll be intrigued to see where it sends the pressure from defensively. It's critical for Georgia to pressure Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar, who really struggles when under duress.
Over the last two seasons at Appalachian State, Aguilar has made 50 big-time throws against 51 turnover-worthy plays, according to PFF. When facing pressure, this ratio is 11:26 in favor of turnover-worthy plays.
I am not confident in Aguilar's ability to handle the pressure, and I expect costly mistakes to be the difference when lining up against Georgia's defensive front.
On the other side, the Bulldogs will line up and run the football against Tennessee's front seven, and I trust UGA quarterback Gunner Stockton and his efficient passing to extend drives when needed.
Stockton has played in high-pressure situations in the past, and while this will be a hostile environment, I don't think he'll be rattled and lose his composure.
I'm amazed at how the perception of these two teams has changed as drastically as it has in just two short weeks.
No one cares less about beating up on nonconference bottom-feeders than Kirby Smart, and we've seen that based on the way he managed Georgia’s games against Marshall and Austin Peay.
On the other side, no one cares more about putting up big numbers against lesser competition than Josh Heupel and Tennessee, which played out against Syracuse and East Tennessee State.
I'm not ready to alter my perception of either team yet based on the results of those nonconference games, but this will be a fantastic barometer for where each of these two teams is at as we look forward to SEC play.
Over/Under Pick
Over 50.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 50.5 | 3 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 50.5
Our staff is leaning over here, and I'm thinking the same.
Georgia has some of the best advanced defensive stats in the country, ranking in the top 20 in Success Rate allowed and Explosiveness allowed.
However, the Dawgs ain’t played nobody, Paul!
Tennessee will be the first real test, and it will be a tough one as Tennessee boasts one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking 10th in Offensive Success Rate and 21st in Offensive Points Per Opportunity.
Tennessee may have gotten the better end of what was essentially a QB swap with UCLA. Joey Aguilar looks extremely comfortable pushing the ball down the field, which is a necessity in Josh Heupel's offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Volunteers defense has not looked like the same unit from 2024, ranking 78th in Success Rate allowed and 123rd in Points Per Opportunity allowed.
In particular, the Vols struggle to stop teams on standard downs, ranking 121st in Standard Down Success Rate allowed. This could be a problem against a Georgia team that ranks eighth in Standard Down Success Rate.
Look for the Dawgs to march down the field and feast inside the red zone. However, that's certainly not only the case for Georgia. Expect both teams to score touchdowns instead of field goals when they get into scoring position.
I would shop around for the best number here, but I'm comfortable with the over at 49.5.
Tennessee vs. Georgia Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 +100 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +155 |
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -120 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -185 |
- Tennessee vs. Georgia Spread: Georgia -3.5, Tennessee +3.5
- Tennessee vs. Georgia Over/Under: 50.5
- Tennessee vs. Georgia Moneyline: Georgia -185, Tennessee +155
