You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To keep the chalk talk rolling this year, we're two home favorites — one in an American/Pac-2 clash and one in the ACC against the favorite to win the G5 playoff spot.
Let's dive into our Week 3 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Washington State vs. North Texas and USF vs. Miami on Saturday, Sept. 13.
Week 3 College Football Predictions
Stuckey: North Texas -5.5 vs. Washington State
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -112 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -108 | 57.5 -115o / -105u | -205 |
I’m like the North Texas Mean Green at anything under a touchdown against Washington State.
I’m a big believer in this North Texas squad. What I’ve seen so far tells me it'll move the ball through the air pretty well, and its defense has taken a noticeable step forward under new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity.
You might not have seen it on the scoreboard last week — there were some fluky things going on in that Western Michigan game— but their defense has improved a lot.
That complementary defense is what could make them a real contender in the American this season.
For Washington State, it’s a tough matchup.
I’ll give the Cougars credit because they looked better last week with Jaxon Potter under center, who completed 28 of his 42 passes for 257 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
While Wazzu did improve, North Texas is just clicking on both sides of the ball. That'll be too much to overcome in this nonconference matchup.
Collin Wilson: Miami -17.5 vs. USF
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
The Hurricanes missed only three tackles against Bethune-Cookman. I know it’s Bethune-Cookman, but still, just three missed tackles is pretty solid. Against Notre Dame and a rushing attack led by Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and a really quick CJ Carr, they missed seven tackles against.
Miami’s defense under Corey Hetherman has been much tighter, more disciplined and buttoned up.
For starters, the penalties are down. The Canes sit around 71st in the country, which is a huge improvement since they usually rank near the bottom of the barrel of all FBS teams.
Defensively, they rank 18th in Rush EPA. They’re not missing tackles and instead are actually bringing guys down at the second level now.
And that’s before even diving into what Carson Beck is doing with this group of weapons on offense.
The offense is fine, but what stands out with Miami right now is its defense. Whether it’s fundamentals, penalties, missed tackles or coverage mistakes, none of those old problems have shown up.
This will be a rough spot for South Florida after two straight ranked wins.
