Wilson: 8 College Football Week 1 Games I’m Betting Based on These Mismatches
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: JT Daniel
- Collin Wilson is already deep into the college football Week 1 betting card.
- He's using returning production mismatches, scheme changes and more to identify betting value before the market catches up.
But another betting angle we can attack in the summer is Week 1 point spreads, which are widely available.
If you are a longtime reader of The Action Network and CW9, key statistics within the Five Factors play a huge role in determining winners. Army exposing defensive lines with a poor stuff rate, Notre Dame leading the country in pass breakups against Stanford, and Texas A&M defensive impotency against explosive offenses all play a role in the handicaps.
The analysis around Week 1 comes from a completely different point of view. The initial kickoff centers around returning production, stability in the offensive and defensive coordinators, and scheme changes. It is important to know Tulane will see a complete philosophy change and that Georgia Tech is scrapping the triple option.
Here is a look at 9 of the biggest mismatches in college football’s first weekend, and how I’m betting them.
FIU at Tulane
- FIU Overall Returning Production Rank: 6
- Tulane Overall Returning Production Rank: 99
Coming live from Yulman Stadium on a Thursday will be the new look Tulane Green Wave. Doug Ruse was fired as offensive coordinator and Will Hall had a few practices before a Cure Bowl domination of Louisiana Lafayette. This Tulane team will look to have a faster tempo and less complex play calling. Fewer complications is good for the Green Wave’s offensive returning production rank of 106th.
Butch Davis arrived at Florida International in 2017 off a 4-8 season. Fast forward two years and the Panthers have a combined 17-9 record and success on the recruiting trail.
A defensive returning production rank of 26th is highlighted by a 2018 unit that was 21st against explosive plays. That will be key against a Tulane offense that finished 2018 No. 9 in IsoPPP and 119th in Success Rate.
The Pick: Florida International +3
Wisconsin at South Florida
- Wisconsin Offensive Returning Production Rank: 7
- South Florida Defensive Returning Production Rank: 93