Wilson: 8 College Football Week 1 Games I’m Betting Based on These Mismatches

Jun 25, 2019 1:37 PM EDT
Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: JT Daniel

  • Collin Wilson is already deep into the college football Week 1 betting card.
  • He's using returning production mismatches, scheme changes and more to identify betting value before the market catches up.

The college football futures market continues to develop with win totals, conference odds and even a Bednarik Award prop.

But another betting angle we can attack in the summer is Week 1 point spreads, which are widely available.

If you are a longtime reader of The Action Network and CW9, key statistics within the Five Factors play a huge role in determining winners. Army exposing defensive lines with a poor stuff rate, Notre Dame leading the country in pass breakups against Stanford, and Texas A&M defensive impotency against explosive offenses all play a role in the handicaps.

The analysis around Week 1 comes from a completely different point of view. The initial kickoff centers around returning production, stability in the offensive and defensive coordinators, and scheme changes. It is important to know Tulane will see a complete philosophy change and that Georgia Tech is scrapping the triple option.

Here is a look at 9 of the biggest mismatches in college football’s first weekend, and how I’m betting them.

FIU at Tulane

  • FIU Overall Returning Production Rank: 6
  • Tulane Overall Returning Production Rank: 99

Coming live from Yulman Stadium on a Thursday will be the new look Tulane Green Wave. Doug Ruse was fired as offensive coordinator and Will Hall had a few practices before a Cure Bowl domination of Louisiana Lafayette. This Tulane team will look to have a faster tempo and less complex play calling. Fewer complications is good for the Green Wave’s offensive returning production rank of 106th.

Butch Davis arrived at Florida International in 2017 off a 4-8 season. Fast forward two years and the Panthers have a combined 17-9 record and success  on the recruiting trail.

A defensive returning production rank of 26th is highlighted by a 2018 unit that was 21st against explosive plays. That will be key against a Tulane offense that finished 2018 No. 9 in IsoPPP and 119th in Success Rate.

The Pick: Florida International +3

Wisconsin at South Florida

  • Wisconsin Offensive Returning Production Rank: 7
  • South Florida Defensive Returning Production Rank: 93

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