The Florida State Seminoles take on the Stanford Cardinal in Stanford, California. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida State is favored by 17 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. The total is set at 53 points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. Stanford prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Florida State vs Stanford Prediction and Pick
- Florida State vs. Stanford Pick: Stanford +17 or Better
My Stanford vs. Florida State best bet is on the Cardinal to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs Stanford Odds, Spread and Total
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +650 |
- Florida State vs Stanford point spread: Florida State -18
- Florida State vs Stanford over/under: 53 points
- Florida State vs Stanford moneyline: Florida State -1000, Stanford +650
Florida State vs Stanford Key Players To Watch
Florida State heads west for a rare cross-country trip to Stanford Stadium, and the situation sets up nicely for the underdog.
After a grueling ACC stretch and a recent skid that has exposed defensive leaks, the Seminoles now face a late kickoff three time zones away — a classic flat spot for an East Coast team.
Stanford, meanwhile, remains a team that quietly profiles better than its record suggests, particularly at home, where its defensive metrics tend to stabilize.
Offensively, Florida State remains efficient on paper, ranking 10th nationally in EPA per Pass (0.34) and ninth in EPA per Rush (0.20). Mike Norvell’s system continues to generate explosive plays, converting 60.9% of third and fourth downs (second nationally) while gaining 67.6% of available yards (second).
However, context matters. The Seminoles are banged up across their skill positions — Duce Robinson (WR) and Randy Pittman Jr. (TE) are both questionable. At the same time, several rotational pieces, such as Jayvan Boggs, Roydell Williams, and Micah Pettus, have either missed time or been limited.
Those absences contributed to Florida State’s recent inconsistency: despite elite efficiency on paper, they’ve scored just 10 second-half points over their last two games combined.
The passing game remains explosive when healthy, but injuries have dulled their margin for error, especially on the road.
Stanford’s defense has struggled to prevent big plays, allowing 0.13 EPA per Pass (101st) and 54.1% of available yards (124th). On the surface, that looks like a mismatch against Florida State’s dynamic offense. Yet, a deeper look shows that Stanford’s defense bends far more than it breaks — the Cardinal performs respectably on late downs, ranking 26th nationally in third and fourth-down defense (37.8%).
Stanford's ability to get off the field and deliberate on offensive tempo gives them a realistic path to keeping this game within two touchdowns.
When the Cardinal have the ball, the numbers show a more balanced matchup than the public perception. Stanford’s offense is far from explosive, ranking 73rd nationally in EPA per Pass (0.03) and 60th in EPA per Rush (-0.04).
But the Cardinal will face a Florida State defense that has quietly fallen off since mid-September.
The Seminoles now rank 116th in EPA per Pass Allowed (-0.13) and 55th in EPA per Rush allowed (0.04) — mediocre figures for a unit once considered elite. Stanford’s most significant edge may come on third down, where it converts 39.8% of opportunities against a defense that allows conversions at a 34.5% clip (124th).
Stanford's formula for success is sustaining drives and flipping the field.
Florida State’s overall efficiency is undeniable, but situational factors matter.
The Seminoles are traveling over 2,600 miles for a late-night kickoff, missing key offensive contributors, and facing a motivated Stanford team that has quietly been competitive at home.
The Cardinal don’t need to win this outright — they need to stay on script, limit explosive plays, and force Florida State to string together long drives with a diminished receiving corps. That’s a much taller order for a team whose recent form and injury report suggest continued regression.
At +18, this number is too large given the context. Florida State’s top-end metrics inflate their profile, but they’ve failed to separate on the road this season and now face a bad travel and motivation spot.
Pick: Stanford +17 or Better
Florida State vs Stanford How To Watch
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Location: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
