The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the San Jose State Spartans in San Jose, California. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Fresno State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. San Jose State, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +145 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47.5 total points.
Here’s my Fresno State vs. San Jose State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
Fresno State vs San Jose State Prediction
- Fresno State vs. San Jose State Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 45)
My San Jose State vs. Fresno State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Fresno State vs San Jose State Odds
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| San Jose Stats Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
- Fresno State vs San Jose State Spread: Fresno State -3.5, San Jose State +3.5
- Fresno State vs San Jose State Over/Under: 47.5 Points
- Fresno State vs San Jose State Moneyline: Fresno State -170, San Jose State +145
Fresno State vs San Jose State College Football Betting Preview
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: One-Dimensional Offense
This game is going to be ugly, and I wouldn't want to wrap up the Rivalry Week card any other way.
We have a lot working in our favor for an under because both teams come into this matchup with significant efficiency red flags on early downs and very little explosiveness to compensate.
Fresno State’s offense has been trending toward a one-dimensional unit for weeks, and the metrics confirm it. The Bulldogs sit 117th in EPA/Pass and 115th in EPA/Rush, meaning they’re below-average at generating positive value on anything they run.
That lack of punch shows up again with a rank of 104th in available yards rate.
It’s hard to string together scoring drives when you’re constantly behind schedule and facing long conversion attempts. Fresno owns the 123rd-ranked average third-down distance (7.72 yards) and a brutal 127th-ranked third- and fourth-down Success Rate (36.6%).
None of that is the profile of a team that sustains drives or finishes them.
And the matchup doesn’t get any easier against a San Jose State defense that’s more than capable of forcing Fresno back into those same inefficiencies.
The Spartans rank 58th in third- and fourth-down Success Rate allowed, which isn’t elite, but good enough when you consider how limited Fresno’s offensive ceiling already is.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Mismatch on the Board
But the bigger under-driving mismatch is on the other side of the ball, where Fresno State’s defense projects as the best unit on the field.
The Bulldogs quietly rank 42nd in EPA/Pass, 38th in EPA/Rush and an impressive 13th in available yards allowed (35.7%), meaning they force opponents into stalled drives better than almost anyone in the Mountain West.
That’s a nightmare script for a San Jose State offense that doesn’t generate chunk plays reliably. The Spartans sit 70th in EPA/Pass and 62nd in EPA/Rush. That doesn't seem too terrible, but they have a tall task against a solid Bulldogs defense.
The Spartans also struggle to establish good starting field position, ranking among the worst special teams units in the country. Long fields combined with a low-efficiency offense is an under bettor’s dream.
The Spartans also have a mediocre average of 7.25 yards to go on third downs, which means they’re unlikely to sustain long scoring drives against a disciplined Fresno defense that excels at forcing teams into long downs and distances.
When both teams are below average in early-down efficiency, both defenses limit available yards and neither team demonstrates consistent third-down success, you almost always end up with a rock-fight like matchup.
Fresno State vs San Jose State Pick, Betting Analysis
Add in two offenses with no explosiveness and two defenses that prevent available yards at top-50 levels, and this sets up as a game where both teams spend long stretches between the 30s, trade punts and rely on field goals instead of touchdowns.
With all the indicators pointing toward a suppressed pace, minimal efficiency and field-position-driven football, I'm happy to snag this number before a key number of 45.
Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 45)
Fresno State vs San Jose State Betting Trends
