College football conference championship week has arrived. That means it's time to take a look at the nine games on the docket and see what kind of value we can find before lines move.
This week, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is looking at the MAC Championship between the Miami (OH) RedHawks and Western Michigan Broncos.
Let's dive into Wilson's college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan in the MAC Championship below.
Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -140 |
The MAC Championship from Ford Field will be a rematch from conference play, as Western Michigan will seek revenge on Miami (OH).
The RedHawks took the Oct. 25 game under previous quarterback Dequan Finn.
The Broncos were the only team Miami head coach Chuck Martin beat that ended the season with a winning record. A 17-point comeback in the fourth quarter assisted the RedHawks, and much of that was thanks to two all-purpose touchdowns from Finn.
Miami averaged two yards per play more than Western Michigan and limited the Broncos to just a single red-zone trip.
That kind of defense will be needed again, as Finn's absence has led to Martin leaning on two different quarterbacks as starters.
Henry Hesson took the initial snaps but was replaced in Week 13 by Thomas Gotkowski. The freshman led the RedHawks to a victory over Buffalo before a 21-point win over Ball State in the regular-season finale.
Gostkowski will enter the MAC Championship game with seven big-time throws to just a single turnover-worthy play. The passing skills will be needed against a Western Michigan defense that ranks 84th in coverage grading, per PFF.
The Broncos have won eight of their last nine games thanks to a defense that's top-35 in rush efficiency, Line Yards, Havoc and quality drives allowed.
Western Michigan has been fantastic at defending opponents that utilize outside zone and power on the ground. However, the Broncos have struggled with teams using inside zone read concepts with a Success Rate of just 39%.
When looking at Miami’s run concept portfolio, the RedHawks will line up and run inside zone with various personnel and formations.
Gotkowski has been successful in limited action using this concept with running back Jordan Brunson, who has racked up 14 explosives on the season.
There could be a similar advantage on the opposite side of the ball, where Western Michigan becomes a heavy run offense.
The Broncos use plenty of man and outside zone read run concepts. Miami (OH) has been above average in defending outside zone, producing a Success Rate of 55% against the run concept.
Our Action Network Betting Power Ratings call for Miami (OH) to be slightly favored on a neutral site. Considering the run concept advantages for the RedHawks offense and defense, Martin may be in line for his third MAC Championship.
Pick: Miami +2.5 or Better
