The SMU Mustangs take on the California Golden Bears in Berkeley, California. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2.
SMU is favored by 13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -575. The total is set at 53 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Cal predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 29, 2025.
SMU vs California Prediction
- SMU vs. Cal Pick: Cal +13 or Better
My California vs. SMU best bet is on the Golden Bears to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Cal Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | -575 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 53 -110o / -110u | +425 |
- SMU vs Cal point spread: SMU -13.5 (-110), Cal +13.5 (-110)
- SMU vs Cal over/under: 53 (-110o / -110u)
- SMU vs Cal moneyline: SMU -575, California +425
SMU vs Cal Pick
This line opened around SMU -10.5, but it has since gone too far, in my opinion.
SMU does need to win to clinch a spot in the ACC Championship, so I believe we may be getting a bit of a "must-win" tax on a game I project at 10.5.
Ultimately, this sets up as a pristine buy-low/sell-high spot, with Cal coming off a blowout loss to Stanford in which it actually out-gained the Cardinal. At the same time, SMU is fresh off a blowout win over a checked-out Louisville squad that was extremely shorthanded (including at quarterback).
It's also a decent matchup for the Bears, who can't run the ball a lick. Well, nobody can run the ball against the Mustangs, so that won't matter much here.
It will be up to JKS slinging the pill against a vulnerable SMU pass defense. He has to avoid taking too many sacks, which is my primary concern going into this matchup.
Additionally, Cal's run defense is dreadful, but SMU has really struggled to find a consistent rushing attack all season long. The strength of the Cal defense, by far, is the secondary, which is critical against the pass-heavy Stangs.
Historically, Cal has thrived as a large underdog under defensive backs whisperer Justin Wilcox, whose defenses have consistently excelled at limiting explosive passing plays.
Wilcox is no longer in town after being let go following last week's loss. What impact will that have this week? It's hard to say, but the defense's structure should remain the same.
Plus, you could see a potential one-week coach bump with Nick Rolovich, as we've seen many times after in-season coaching changes. We could see some new wrinkles on offense that SMU doesn't have on tape.
This line is just too high. Cal closed as a 4.5-point underdog at home against Virginia not too long ago and should have covered if not for a pick-six in the final seconds.
This is also a team that recently went on the road and won at Louisville to end the Cardinals' season.
SMU has played better of late (in part due to a healthier Kevin Jennings), but this isn't an elite team by any stretch. The Mustangs have had plenty of very underwhelming results, including home games against Syracuse and Stanford that left a lot to be desired. This isn't easy travel, either.
Pick Cal +13 or Better
