Heisman Odds Watch: Tagovailoa Continues to Pull Away From Pack

Heisman Odds Watch: Tagovailoa Continues to Pull Away From Pack article feature image

Sep 1, 2018; Orlando, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (13) warms up prior to the game against the Louisville Cardinals at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

  • Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa is now a -400 favorite to win the Heisman.
  • He's followed by Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins, both of whom have seen their odds fall significantly over the past two weeks.

It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve checked in on Heisman odds, and while the order at the top of the list hasn’t changed, the numbers on the list have gotten significantly bigger.

That’s because Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa is now a -400 favorite to win the award.

Tua has been an odds-on favorite for more than a month now, but his odds have especially taken off over the past two weeks, even though Alabama had the past weekend off.

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.


Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama): -180 to -400 (64.28% to 80% implied probability)

Week 9: Did not play

Tua is essentially a lock to win the Heisman in the eyes of oddsmakers, as his odds translate to an 80% implied chance at the award.

Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan): +30000 to +1600 (0.33% to 5.88% implied probability)

Week 9 @ Michigan State: 14 of 25, 212 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

I’ll be honest, I don’t really understand this one. Patterson wasn’t in the Heisman conversation at all while odds were posted at Westgate, but he’s the fourth-most likely winner.

His numbers haven’t been all that impressive, but if he can lead Michigan into the College Football Playoff, that might be enough to get him into the discussion.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson): +10000 to +4000 (0.99% to 2.44% implied probability)

Week 9 @ Florida State: 20 for 37, 314 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

With his best game of the season coming in this past weekend’s game, Lawrence is now sitting at 40-1 to win the Heisman.

Still, with Lawrence being the ninth-most likely winner, it looks like his performance against FSU was too little, too late.


Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma): +250 to +550 (28.57% to 15.38% implied probability)

Week 9 vs. Kansas State: 19 of 24, 352 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT

Murray didn’t do anything to hurt his Heisman chances this week, but still suffered from oddsmakers extending Tua’s odds. He’s now looking at just a 15% chance at winning the award.

Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State): +250 to +1100 (28.57% to 8.33% implied probability)

Week 8 @ Purdue: 49 of 73, 470 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

The big blow to Haskins’ odds came two weeks ago, although it certainly wasn’t because of his stat line. Losing to Purdue as a 12-point favorite turned Haskins from a serious contender to an 11-1 longshot to win the Heisman.