Heisman Odds Watch: Tagovailoa Continues to Pull Away From Pack

Oct 31, 2018 8:50 AM EDT
  • Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa is now a -400 favorite to win the Heisman at BetOnline.
  • He's followed by Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins, both of whom have seen their odds fall significantly over the past two weeks.

It’s been a couple weeks since we’ve checked in on Heisman odds, and while the order at the top of the list hasn’t changed, the numbers on the list have gotten significantly bigger.

That’s because Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa is now a -400 favorite to win the award at BetOnline.

Tua has been an odds-on favorite for more than a month now, but his odds have especially taken off over the past two weeks, even though Alabama had the past weekend off.

Here are the current available odds at BetOnline.

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.

Risers

Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama): -180 to -400 (64.28% to 80% implied probability)

Week 9: Did not play

Tua is essentially a lock to win the Heisman in the eyes of oddsmakers, as his odds translate to an 80% implied chance at the award.

Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan): +30000 to +1600 (0.33% to 5.88% implied probability)

Week 9 @ Michigan State: 14 of 25, 212 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

I’ll be honest, I don’t really understand this one. Patterson wasn’t in the Heisman conversation at all while odds were posted at Westgate, but he’s the fourth-most likely winner at BetOnline.

His numbers haven’t been all that impressive, but if he can lead Michigan into the College Football Playoff, that might be enough to get him into the discussion.

Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson): +10000 to +4000 (0.99% to 2.44% implied probability)

Week 9 @ Florida State: 20 for 37, 314 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

With his best game of the season coming in this past weekend’s game, Lawrence is now sitting at 40-1 to win the Heisman.

Still, with Lawrence being the ninth-most likely winner, it looks like his performance against FSU was too little, too late.

Fallers

Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma): +250 to +550 (28.57% to 15.38% implied probability)

Week 9 vs. Kansas State: 19 of 24, 352 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT

Murray didn’t do anything to hurt his Heisman chances this week, but still suffered from oddsmakers extending Tua’s odds. He’s now looking at just a 15% chance at winning the award.

Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State): +250 to +1100 (28.57% to 8.33% implied probability)

Week 8 @ Purdue: 49 of 73, 470 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

The big blow to Haskins’ odds came two weeks ago, although it certainly wasn’t because of his stat line. Losing to Purdue as a 12-point favorite turned Haskins from a serious contender to an 11-1 longshot to win the Heisman.

Credit:

Sep 1, 2018; Orlando, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (13) warms up prior to the game against the Louisville Cardinals at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BSU
UNM
62.5
+21.5
62.5
+19.5
PSU
RUTG
48.5
+26
49.5
+28
ARK
MSST
45.5
-18.5
46.5
-21.5
CIT
BAMA
60.5
-51
62.5
-51.5
OSU
MD
58
+17.5
58.5
+14.5
NW
MINN
51
+3.5
47
-2
IDHO
FLA
59
-39.5
59
-40
MTSU
UK
45
-13
46.5
-16.5
UTAH
COLO
48.5
+7
48
+7
USU
CSU
68
+26
68
+28.5
SYR
ND
62.5
-10
65.5
-10
BC
FSU
49.5
+1
49
+1.5
WVU
OKST
69.5
+5
74
+5.5
MASS
UGA
62
-44
66.5
-41
IND
MICH
53
-27.5
53.5
-28.5
ORST
WASH
57.5
-31
58.5
-33.5
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
57.5
-28.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52
-41.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
69
-35.5
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
61
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
47
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
62.5
-10.5