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Kansas vs Texas Tech Odds & Picks: Expect Offenses to Shine

Kansas vs Texas Tech Odds & Picks: Expect Offenses to Shine article feature image
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Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kansas running back Devin Neal.

Kansas vs Texas Tech Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
7 p.m. ET
ESPN+
Kansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3.5
-105
63.5
-110o / -110u
+150
Texas Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3.5
-115
63.5
-110o / -110u
-182
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

For the first time since 2008, the Kansas Jayhawks will be playing in a bowl game. The Jayhawks secured bowl eligibility with a 37-16 victory over Oklahoma State, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. They now sit 6-3 and 3-3 in Big 12 play.

Next, it will head to the road to battle the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The Red Raiders started 3-1 following an overtime win over Texas. Since then, Texas Tech has fallen to 4-5 and 2-4 in Big 12 play. Last week, it fell, 34-24, to TCU for its fourth loss in five games.

The Red Raiders will look to bounce back against a Kansas team that it has dominated historically. Texas Tech holds a 21-2 edge in the series.

Last season, Texas Tech scored 41 points in its win over Kansas. This season, the Jayhawks are much improved, particularly on offense. This year’s total sits at 64 points, so could we see a typical high-scoring affair in the Big 12?


Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas running back Devin Neal had a career day last year.

The sophomore ran for 224 yards and a touchdown and also hauled in six receptions for 110 yards. It was quite the breakout performance as a receiver, as he entered last week with just six receptions for 33 yards on the year. His 334 all-purpose yards were the most by a Jayhawk since 1991.

Neal was named both Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week and Doak Walker National Running Back of the Week. He’s now run for 761 yards and seven touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Jason Bean has reclaimed the starting role following the injury to Jalon Daniels. In the last four games, he has thrown for 962 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions while completing nearly 66% of his passes.

He has also added 193 yards and two touchdowns on the ground in that span. He has kept the Jayhawks’ offense afloat with Daniels sidelined.

Kansas still ranks fourth in the FBS in yards per play, eighth in third-down conversion percentage and 10th in Passing Success Rate.

Having a great offensive line is certainly a benefit, as Kansas has given up just five sacks this season, which is third-best in the FBS. Additionally, it helps to have playmakers like Neal and wide receiver Lawrence Arnold.

Arnold leads the team with 419 receiving yards on 27 receptions and four touchdowns, three of which have come in his last three games. Wide receiver Luke Grimm leads the team with 33 receptions, while tight end Mason Fairchild paces the Jayhawks with five scores through the air.

The defensive side of the ball is where the Jayhawks struggle. Kansas ranks 108th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 113th in Line Yards, 120th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 119th in Havoc.

The Jayhawks also sit 88th in scoring defense and allow 29 points per game. They’ve allowed 30 points in five of their nine games this season.

Two areas where the Jayhawks can excel on defense are in the sacks and turnovers departments. Kansas has 21 sacks this season, led by defensive end Lonnie Phelps with six.

It also ranks 13th in the FBS with 19 turnovers forced. Three players have multiple interceptions, led by cornerback Cobee Bryant with three.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech has had a revolving door at quarterback this season.

Redshirt freshman Behren Morton has gotten the last four starts, but he left the TCU game in the first half and didn’t return. Early indications are that he will be out, as Tyler Shough and Donovan Smith have split first-team reps in practice.

Shough has appeared in just three games this season as he battled injuries himself, but he has completed 64% of his passes and owns a 24:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio for his career.

Texas Tech likes to use Smith as a runner, but he has been solid as a passer as well. He has thrown for 1,505 yards, 12 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 66% of his passes.

On the ground, he’s run for four touchdowns as well.

Regardless of who has been under center, Texas Tech has had little trouble moving the ball this season. It averages 462.1 yards of total offense and 32.8 points per game to rank 23rd and 39th in FBS, respectively.

Running backs SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks have posted nearly identical stat lines this season. They both average five yards per carry, and Thompson has 481 rushing yards to Brooks’ 479 yards. However, Brooks has six rushing touchdowns to Thompson’s three.

The Red Raiders rank 53rd in Rushing Success Rate and should find success on the ground against the Jayhawks.

The Red Raiders are not shy about putting the ball in the air, and in doing so, spreading the ball around. Including Thompson and Brooks, 12 different Red Raiders have double-digit receptions.

Wide receiver Xavier White leads the team with 35 receptions for 461 yards and three touchdowns. Wide receiver Jerand Bradley paces the Red Raiders with four touchdowns and a 14.7 yards-per-catch average. He has 31 receptions for 457 yards.

Defensively, the metrics have been favorable for the Texas Tech defense. It ranks 35th in Rushing Success Rate, 34th in Line Yards and 15th in Passing Success Rate. However, it still ranks 94th in scoring defense at 29.8 points per game.

The Red Raiders have allowed 30 points in six of their nine games this season.

They rank 67th in Defensive Finishing Drives and will struggle in that area Saturday, as Kansas ranks 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives and will convert once it crosses the 40-yard line.

A key matchup will be how the Kansas offensive line deals with outside linebacker Tyree Wilson. The edge rusher sits second on the team with 59 tackles and leads the team with 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks.


Kansas vs Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Kansas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 62 35
Line Yards 57 34
Pass Success 10 15
Pass Blocking** 65 38
Havoc 43 73
Finishing Drives 15 67
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 53 108
Line Yards 76 113
Pass Success 95 120
Pass Blocking** 100 55
Havoc 110 119
Finishing Drives 69 61
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 18 33
PFF Coverage 85 87
SP+ Special Teams 111 81
Seconds per Play 28.5 (107) 20.5 (2)
Rush Rate 59.3% (27) 45.1% (113)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Kansas vs Texas Tech Betting Pick

Kansas and Texas Tech give up about 59 points per game combined. If the defenses have an average day, you’re already just a touchdown shy of cashing the over.

That’s before accounting for the fact that there are capable offenses on each side. I expect Kansas to continue to ride the hot hand of Neal. On the other side, Texas Tech should have success through the air no matter which quarterback starts.

The over is 5-4 in Kansas games this season and 6-3 in Texas Tech games, including 4-1 in its last five home games. This game has the potential to fly past the total.

However, with the total at 64, I like the over because it can hit with scores of 34-31 or 41-24 if things get a little sweaty.

Each defense ranks in the 60s in Finishing Drives, so there should be plenty of points on the board — over 64 points, to be exact.

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