The Kent State Golden Flashes take on the Akron Zips in Akron, Ohio, on Tuesday, Nov. 11. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Akron is favored by -5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. Kent State, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +185 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 points.
Here’s my Kent State vs. Akron prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, November 11.
Kent State vs Akron Prediction
• Kent State vs. Akron Pick: Under 47.5
My Akron vs. Kent State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Kent State vs Akron Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Akron Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Kent State vs Akron Spread: Akron -5.5, Kent State +5.5
- Kent State vs Akron Over/Under: 46.5 Points
- Kent State vs Akron Moneyline: Kent State +185, Akron -220
Kent State vs Akron College Football Betting Preview
Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Preview: Rising Defense, Unsteady Offense
Kent State has managed to triple its win total from the last two seasons in just nine games. At 3-6, the Golden Flashes must win out to clinch a bowl game in their first year under now-permanent head coach Mark Carney.
Ahead on the slate? Rival Akron (127th in aggregate industry power ratings), Central Michigan (at home) and Northern Illinois (125th in ratings). Not an impossible task.
This is an improved defense that has received some help from some of the worst offenses in the country lately. Ball State ranks 129th in points per drive, and Bowling Green is stuck in neutral with a rotating cast of quarterbacks.
But the defense is still better than last year by a lot.
Run-oriented offenses like BGSU struggled against Kent State’s defense, which ranks 39th in EPA Per Rush allowed.
Thanks to that stoutness against the run, teams average 7.2 yards to go on third down, a plus ranking nationally (56th), but Kent State struggles against the pass and, therefore, struggles to get teams off the field on late downs.
On the other side of the ball, Dru DeShields is likely the most reliable quarterback the Flashes have rostered since Dustin Crum (2021), and he’s quite a story, having come off a string of serious knee injuries.
But this isn’t an offense that’s anywhere close to reliable when not playing UMass. Beyond that game, Kent’s season-high was 28, which came in a tight loss to Buffalo in September, and it came away with 10 against Toledo and 13 against Ball State (1-of-5 on fourth down and 3-of-13 on third down).
There’s almost no rushing threat to speak of — Maurice Stephens, a wide receiver with one carry, ties the non-DeShields team lead with one rushing touchdown — and the passing game is middling at best.
Unfortunately for the Flashes, a few upcoming sturdy defenses could turn the scoring faucet completely off.
Carney’s done enough to earn the full-time coaching gig. Every indicator suggests that the players hold him in high regard, and the play on the field indicates that a lot of effort is being put forth. Players in the locker room have shared that with me, as well.
This team isn’t worthy of an auto-fade by any stretch.
Akron Zips Betting Preview: Against the Odds
Akron has nothing to gain from this season. It also has nothing to lose — and that has made the Zips dangerous.
Outsized and (usually) out-talented, Akron has turned into a disruptive defense-first team that’s physical and plays with a lot of attitude (I stood near the Zips sideline against Buffalo, and there’s a lot of attitude).
It took down Buffalo on the road and Central Michigan at home, both times as underdogs.
But there’s no prize at the end. Akron can’t play for a bowl this year due to a run of poor Academic Progress Rate scores, a penalty handed down late this summer.
Whether it be to bolster their transfer portal resume or just to watch the MAC burn, Akron’s players haven’t thrown in the towel. It has led to four wins on the season, including two back-to-back and three in conference play.
Gage Summers is a ball magnet, scoring three touchdowns on the season — did I mention he plays linebacker? — on four takeaways. He also adds 27 run stops and two sacks.
In total, the Zips have 10 takeaways in their last three games against Ball State, Buffalo and UMass.
Offensively, there’s not much to speak of.
Quarterback Ben Finley is the driving force behind the scoring attack, and he finds most of his success on broken plays and when he extends plays with his feet.
This is a team that doesn’t utilize tight ends or running backs very well in the passing game, and the receivers are far below average in the MAC. Oftentimes, there’s just nowhere to go with the football.
The passing game also doesn’t open up because there’s little threat on the ground. Jordan Gant has nearly 850 yards on the season by sheer volume (168 attempts), and he finds 10-plus yards on only 15% of his carries.
The kicking woes have been fixed with a shift to Matthew Schramm, who's 6-for-6 since taking over in Week 8, including 3-of-3 between 40 and 49 yards.
Akron is an under-talented half-team with no explosive threat, but also a Havoc-y defense. It hopes to slow the pace down, force turnovers and capitalize on field goals from plus field position.
Kent State vs Akron Pick, Betting Analysis
Akron leads the Wagon Wheel rivalry series, 37-28-2, all-time, and has won each of the last two matchups. Since the series became more regular in 1983, these two teams have split meetings pretty evenly.
Akron is right back to where it started as a -5.5 home favorite in the game, but the over/under dipped from 48.5 to 47.5. This is a notable move through 48.
The forecast calls for blustery and chilly conditions with an outside chance of lingering snow (though nothing impactful). If you’re new to Wagon Wheel, blustery and chilly is about all this series knows of late.
Power ratings suggest a slight lean toward Kent State (projected +5). With a below-average total in a rivalry game, taking the underdog makes sense.
But beyond the ratings and metrics, I’m very cautious to back Kent State for a big reason: Akron has no postseason leverage to gain or lose from this game, but it can effectively end its rival’s season with a win.
For those opting to remove that factor — one that is almost positively shared in the locker room this week — that’s foolish. Is it enough to move a line multiple points? Certainly not. But it has to be considered.
I attended this rivalry game the last time it was played in Akron. The announced attendance was 8,000, but perhaps only a fifth of those people actually attended.
The Zips stormed back and beat the visitors late, and the celebration for the Wagon Wheel Trophy afterwards was intense. Akron paraded the wheel around to the several people who actually stayed to the end.
In short, the players and coaches really do care about this rivalry game.
I’m taking under the 47.5 posted points here. These are two defense-oriented teams with inefficient offenses, ranking 119th and 130th in Success Rate.
Kent State takes care of the football, averaging fewer than one turnover per game, while also generating quality drives with the fourth-lowest frequency in the country.
The Zips are a run-oriented offense that doesn’t do that especially well, and Kent State has a formidable run defense.
It’s going to be cold, and InfoCision Stadium is going to be empty.
Get ready for weird broadcast angles and a few points scored.
Pick: Under 47.5
Kent State vs Akron Betting Trends
