College football bowl season continues with 3 more games on Friday.
First, we'll kick it off with the GameAbove Sports Bowl between the Big Ten's Northwestern Wildcats and the MAC's Central Michigan Chippewas.
Then, we'll keep the Big Ten theme going when the Minnesota Golden Gophers meet the New Mexico Lobos in the Rate Bowl.
Then, to close it all out, we have a Group of 5 matchup between the UTSA Roadrunners and Florida International Panthers in the First Responder Bowl.
Our college football writers broke down all 3 games and came through with a pick for each, so let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Friday, Dec. 26.
College Football Picks, Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of NCAAF bowl games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Northwestern vs Central Michigan Pick
By Road to CFB
Central Michigan opened as a +12.5 underdog and took the majority of early market movement, now sitting at +10.5. The total has also been bet down slightly, from 44.5 at open to 43.5.
The GameAbove Sports Bowl is played indoors at Ford Field in Detroit, so weather will not be a factor.
The Big Ten has historically performed well in this bowl game. Since 2014, Big Ten teams have gone 4-1, and power conference teams were 4-0 against Group of Five opponents until Pitt lost a 48-46 overtime thriller to Toledo last year.
Typically, this game serves as a clear illustration of the talent gap between mid-tier Power 4 teams and upper-level Group of Five programs.
That's largely what I expect on Friday.
Northwestern averages 6-foot-5 and 311.6 pounds across its starting offensive line and adds a 6-foot-6, 250-pound tight end in Alex Lines to aid the run game.
Central Michigan has some size up front — most notably nose tackle Jonathan Decker (6-foot-5, 300 pounds) — but that defensive line has been pushed around this season. The Chips rank in the bottom 30 nationally in Defensive Line Yards.
They also struggle to get off the field on third down, while Northwestern's offense ranks top-20 in third-down Success Rate (48.6%).
Central Michigan faced two power conference opponents this year — Pitt and Michigan, both stronger than Northwestern — and averaged just 175 total yards, combining for only 111 rushing yards.
Against the better defensive fronts in the MAC, CMU also struggled. In losses to Western Michigan and Toledo, the Chips rushed for just 55 and 81 yards, respectively.
If you're looking for a repeat of last year's 94-point Pitt-Toledo affair, you won't find it here.
I expect Northwestern to try to sit on the ball and impose its will. Central Michigan, barring a dramatic philosophical shift, also prefers to control possession and shorten the game.
The Wildcats have gotten off to some sluggish starts this season, while Central Michigan has seen more early-game success moving the football. Expect a return to a run-heavy approach if Angel Flores is available for the Chips.
Northwestern allows a quality drive on 50% of opposing possessions (118th) but limits opponents to just 3.3 points per quality drive (47th).
With both teams committed to ball control, the first-quarter clock should bleed quickly, shortening the first half before defensive stops become more frequent — especially if CMU stays within striking distance.
If the full-game total continues to trend downward, grabbing more than half of that number in the first half (in what profiles as a feeling-out process) makes sense.
Pick: 1H Under 22.5 (Play to 21.5)
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Minnesota vs New Mexico Pick
By John Feltman
This Lobos team is actually good, and the stats back it up. On offense, they match up with Minnesota’s defense in every key area. EPA/Pass is identical for both offenses, but the Lobos should be able to exploit Minnesota’s secondary.
I also give the edge to New Mexico on the ground, as it should be able to break through the Gophers’ run defense multiple times throughout the contest.
The real difference shows up in Available Yards Rate, where the Lobos rank inside the top 55 nationally.
UNM should also be close to full strength. Its main players are healthy, and the injury list is much shorter than Minnesota’s.
On the other side, Minnesota’s offense isn’t very threatening. New Mexico’s secondary isn’t elite, but I don’t think the Gophers will be able to exploit it consistently.
Minnesota is also horrendous on the ground, ranking 132nd in rushing efficiency, making it one of the least effective rushing attacks in the country.
What makes matters worse is that running back Darius Taylor may opt out, and backup RB Fame Ijeboi has entered the transfer portal.
I know head coach P.J. Fleck has been tremendous in bowl games, but his offensive options are extremely limited in this spot.
When you look closer, it feels like Minnesota is getting credit for its name, while New Mexico is being treated like the same program from past seasons. That's simply not accurate.
We're getting a more motivated and healthier team with stronger metrics across several areas catching points.
Minnesota looks like a team limping into the postseason with a thin roster and no clear offensive identity, while New Mexico appears hungry, focused and ready to win.
I don’t care about Fleck’s past success in bowl games. I’m more than happy to fade the Gophers in this spot.
Pick: New Mexico +1.5
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UTSA vs Florida International Pick
By John Feltman
If you want a bowl game where everything points to explosive offense, this is the matchup. Both defenses face problems they aren’t equipped to handle.
Looking at FIU’s offense, its basic EPA numbers aren’t impressive, ranking outside the top 75 in EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass. However, the Panthers do a good job of creating scoring chances.
Looking at UTSA’s offense, the case for the over gets even better. The Roadrunners are set up to take advantage of FIU’s defensive problems.
UTSA sits top-32 in EPA Per Rush, which is tough for an FIU defense that ranks near the bottom in run defense. That’s a big mismatch, but the Roadrunners are also strong on early downs, ranking 18th in early down EPA/Play, one of the best marks in the American Conference.
Bowl games — especially with many defensive players leaving like this — often turn into high-scoring affairs because defenses with new faces may experience miscommunication. Plus, a lack of experience can lead to more explosive plays.
I really don't see how we don't end up with a high-scoring affair. Neither defense is good at stopping early-down gains, which leads to more explosive plays.
The mismatches in EPA Per Rush and available yards allowed mean both offenses will often be in solid situations while avoiding long, slow drives.
With FIU quarterbacks Keyone Jenkins and Joe Pesansky both likely to be available, that lowers my concerns about the Panthers finding consistent success.
UTSA struggled at times this year, but I expect a strong effort that will lead to many scoring drives here.
Pick: Over 59.5 (Play to 61)
